X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

PPR Targets - Undervalued Running Backs

Phil Clark identifies undervalued running back (RB) PPR sleepers to target based on current fantasy football ADPs. Certain RBs carry more draft value in PPR leagues than standard.

Preseason games have now begun, which has launched a surge in activity for redraft leagues that will accelerate until the Falcons and Eagles kickoff in Week 1. Whether you are preparing for upcoming drafts, or have already been building your rosters, one of your ongoing priorities is to identify players that supply excellent value once you have reached the middle and late rounds. This is largely predicated on your personal assessment of these players, combined with the location of their ADPs.

Pinpointing value at the running back position is particularly essential as you stockpile backups to your rosters after investing early round capital on the top tiered rushers that are destined to commandeer extensive workloads. Fantasy Football Calculator’s current ADPs reveal that 23 backs are being drafted before Round 5 in PPR leagues, while 36 are being selected before Round 8. By the time that drafts have reached Round 14, owners have secured nearly 60 runners, amid an ongoing effort to find backs that provide the best value.

This breakdown will direct the spotlight on a group of backs that will be available after your drafts have progressed beyond the first three rounds. It is designed to help you identify which runners are being undervalued, yet are capable of bolstering your point production at this critical position.  You will also be supplied with multiple options for the late rounds of your drafts that could become valuable resources during the season.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

RB Draft Targets for PPR Leagues

Duke Johnson (ADP 94 - 8.06)

If your initial thought upon seeing Duke Johnson's name is that he will be operating in one of the league's most congested backfields, then you are correct. However, the potential for discouraging or inconsistent touch totals is more relevant if you are considering Carlos Hyde or Nick Chubb for inclusion on your rosters. It is my belief that Johnson’s ADP is actually the most egregious at this position, which is why this breakdown will begin by reexamining how productive he has been.

Johnson finished at RB11 in PPR leagues one year ago, after collecting the fourth highest number of targets among all backs (93). This propelled him to the fourth most receptions at his position (74) while also placing him third beyond only Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley in receiving yardage (693). Johnson also led Cleveland in all three categories by a considerable margin, although that career-best output was only marginally above the averages that he has assembled during his three-year career (80 targets/63 receptions/580 yards). His 188 catches are also the most at his position since Johnson’s 2015 rookie season.

    Running Back  2017  2016  2015       Total       Receptions
1. Duke Johnson   74   53   61          188
2. Theo Riddick   53   53   80          186
3. Le'Veon Bell   85   75   24          184
4. Devonta Freeman     36   54   73          163
5. James White   56   60   40          156

Johnson also procured the 14th highest snap among backs in 2017 (565/53%), and it is unlikely that his role will be altered by the tandem of Hyde and Chubb. Hyde is the probable early down option when the season begins, while Chubb should eventually overtake him in that capacity. But regardless of how specific usage fluctuates for Hyde and Chubb, Johnson should retain the fundamental role of pass catching back throughout the year. Johnson has also averaged 86 rushing attempts during his three seasons (82/73/104), and will still be deployed on the ground while performing in Cleveland's revamped offensive approach.

The Browns further solidified Johnson’s status as an integral component within their attack by signing him to a $15.6 extension through 2021 - $7.7 of which is guaranteed. His current eighth-round ADP amazingly has him being selected after 37 other backs, which simply should not be occurring. However, that presents an excellent opportunity for you to secure him at his favorable value.

Lamar Miller (ADP 44 - 4.07)

It may be difficult for you to get excited about Miller, who averaged 3.7 YPC last season while finishing at a respectable but uninspiring 16th in rushing (888 yards) and fantasy points.  But considering the existing landscape which only contains a select group of backs that will operate without any discernible competition for touches, anyone who has been hesitant to select him should reconsider the virtual certainty of his weekly workload. Particularly in comparison to a cluster of runners that are being drafted him before him, yet appear destined to split touches (Kenyan Drake/Jay Ajayi/Derrick Henry). LeSean McCoy is also being selected one round earlier amid the risk of suspension, while Alex Collinslimited opportunities as a receiver make him a better option in standard leagues.

Miller’s desirable snap count (757/69%) was exceeded by just three other backs in 2017, and his situation has become even more enticing. D’Onta Foreman was on the active/PUP list during training camp, and his recovery from a torn Achilles has placed him on course to miss Houston’s first six contests. He could easily be performing at less than 100% effectiveness once he does reemerge, while Miller would continue garnering significant workloads. With only Alfred Blue adjacent on the Texans’ depth chart, Miller should operate without a genuine threat for touches, and will surpass the 274 that he received last year. While owners might not experience an endless series of exhilarating performances, Miller will deliver consistent RB2 output. Which provides value at his present ADP (44).

Latavius Murray (ADP 139 - 12.02)

The 6’3”, 230-pound Murray is a former 1,000-yard rusher (2015-1,066) who has occasionally been undervalued during his career. He has generated 20 rushing touchdowns during the past two seasons, which placed him fifth (2016) and sixth (2017) in that category. Murray also tied for sixth with seven runs of 20+ yards, while ranking within the top 10 in percentage of rushing attempts inside the opponents’ 20, 10 and 5 yards lines. He also overcame an unimpressive start in Weeks 4-6 (27 YPG) to average 74.5 YPG from Weeks 7-17, after a torn ACL concluded Dalvin Cook’s promising season.

The significance of his 2017 output is somewhat diminished by the return of Cook, which will alter the workload distribution within Minnesota’s backfield. Even though Mike Zimmer has suggested that there is competition for the Vikings’ RB1 responsibilities, Murray will begin the year as Minnesota's RB2, while Cook garners the majority of touches.

However, there are multiple scenarios that could occur which would elevate Murray's production beyond the modest expectations that currently exist with his 12th round ADP. First, Murray could secure a role as the team's short-yardage specialist, who would also receive coveted red zone carries. His value would be enhanced even further in PPR leagues if Cook encounters another health issue, which would instantly elevate Murray into a massive role.

It is also conceivable that Cook will be taken out of contests for preservation purposes whenever developing game scripts will allow it. Owners would benefit substantially from any of these scenarios if they were to occur simply by assuming a minimal investment in Murray during their drafts. This enables him to provide far greater upside than other backs with similar ADPs can offer.

James White (ADP 154 - 13.04)

The usual trepidation that arises when owners are contemplating the possibility of adding a New England back to their rosters was somewhat tempered this offseason by the appeal of securing the Patriots first round pick Sony Michel, or the multi-layered potential of Rex Burkhead. But after your draft has advanced beyond Round 10, White surfaces as a viable option. Not only is he a legitimate candidate to accumulate additional touches if Michel's knee issue lingers, but there is minimal risk in deploying a pick on the versatile 26-year old at that point of your draft process.

Even as Dion Lewis generated career-best output (896 yards/6 touchdowns) while playing 9+ games for the first time since 2011, White blended his effectiveness as a receiver with his dependability in pass protection, toward making consistent contributions to the Patriots' attack throughout the season. White’s snap count (384/33.6%) almost matched the number of plays that were allotted to Lewis (404/35.4%), which enabled him to accrue respectable numbers. His 56 receptions placed him 10th among all backs, while he garnered the ninth most targets (72), and sixth highest number of red zone targets (12).

White’s recent track record as a proficient receiving weapon is on display inside the table that was included to underscore Johnson’s pass-catching acumen. This is not a suggestion that White will confiscate RB1 responsibilities, but he could be the recipient of an extensive role if any number of factors arise during the year. 54 backs are being chosen before White, whose current ADP 154 places him in the 13th round. This makes him a feasible target who could supply valuable point production during the season.

Jordan Wilkins (ADP 155 - 13.06)

While some within the fantasy community have been proponents of Wilkins throughout the summer, the fifth-round pick is still being selected three rounds later than fellow newcomer Nyheim Hines. But a burgeoning list of favorable developments has converged for this 6’1”, 215-pound rookie, which could facilitate a surge in his value at the most opportune time.

He is joining an Indianapolis offense that should be primed to rebound significantly with the reappearance of Andrew Luck after 585 days away from the field. The Colts also do not currently have a definitive feature back, but whoever ascends into the RB1 role will be operating behind an improved offensive line. The most likely candidate for garnering the largest percentage of touches (Marlon Mack) is now contending with a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, the 6'1", 215- pound Wilkins has also performed effectively in training camp and has a chance to earn a consistent workload.

The explosive Hines is capable of serving as a dynamic home run hitter, which should enable him to maintain a presence within the attack. While that makes him an intriguing best ball target, his strengths do not necessarily equate to the desirable attributes of an every-down back. However, Wilkins does have the potential of functioning in that capacity after generating 1,011 yards and nine touchdowns during his final collegiate season, while also collecting 26 receptions for 241 yards and another score.

While the convergence of positive factors may not result in immediate RB1 responsibilities for Wilkins, he has the versatility to commandeer a reasonable number of touches, and the opportunity to seize a sizable workload is unquestioned. That should encourage owners to grab him at his present Round 13 ADP.

 

More Draft Sleepers and Values




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF