Kent Shen's 2018 Punt Guide: Steals Primer (Premium Content)

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Last Updated 10/11 12:07 PM.

For a primer on punting, check out the RotoBaller NBA Punt Guide, beginning here.  Today we'll be looking at punting the category of rebounds.

Punt steals is another fairly hard strategy to draft, and is a strategy reserved for more advanced leagues, as it's usually not worth it in beginner to intermediate leagues due to steals generally being fairly easy to get value from compared to points or rebounds. A bunch of key players for the strategy tend to be over-drafted by less experienced players, while being under-drafted by more experienced ones, as you will see below.

This creates a very interesting dynamic, and makes punt steals the kind of strategy you can surprise your league full of sharps with.

Complement and Contrary

Punt steals is a big heavy strategy that will leave you with the big categories as your complementary stats - FG%, BLK and REB are categories you will naturally gravitate towards, as well as being naturally strong into TO for those in 9 cat leagues.

The contrary stats for the strategy are FT%, PTS, AST and 3s, with FT% being the hardest to cover without giving it attention early in the draft. I'll move into punt steals if signals are there only if I started the draft with some good FT% pivots, as there are very few ways to make that category up later in the draft. FT% would also be the most likely double punt if you are running punt steals.

Signals

Z-scores courtesy of Basketball Monster

Kyrie Irving falling to the 30s or below market value in auction

My pick for the strongest pivot in the strategy, Kyrie provides coverage in all 4 contrary categories while still acting as a net positive in field goal percentage. If I started the draft with a strong pivot like KD or KAT and I land Irving in the late 20s or early 30s, I will almost certainly look to go punt steals.

It's not a stretch for him to drop a bit due to injury concerns, and getting him late is a great sign to run punt steals.

Kyle Lowry falling to the 30s or below market value in auction

Lowry is like Irving-lite in terms of skill-set, and is another top tier pivot for the build with his coverage. The reason why I like Irving better than Lowry is due to Kyrie's stronger free throw percentage, but getting Lowry at this range is also solid if Irving is already gone.

Lowry comes into the year with injury concerns as well, and if that is priced into his ADP accordingly, then take him where it makes sense and reap the benefits.

Later Round Pivots

DeMar DeRozan, SG, San Antonio Spurs

Lowry's old running mate is one of the best later sources of volume free throw percentage, making him an integral part of the build. DeRozan provides great coverage in 3 of the 4 contrary categories making him a perfect pivot in the mid rounds. While that 3 point mark projection looks like it is imparting some expected improvement as part of playing under Popovich, DeRozan is a valuable pivot even without the 3s, and projectable upside in the category only serves to further that status.

Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers

The Rooster is probably the last shot you have at volume free throw percentage, and his coverage fits perfectly for what the strategy is looking for as well. His injury risk is priced into his ADP at this point, and he is someone I will almost always be targeting, as you know you will be in punt steals for sure by the time that you need to pick him. Gallo is so perfect for the build that I would even reach a round or two to get him.

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, New York Knicks

THJ serves as a late opportunity for a points pivot, which is probably the second hardest category to fill after FT% in the build. Hardaway will be someone I look to target pretty heavily in the build and like Gallo, you will know you'll be deep in punt steals by the time his name needs to be called.

Lou Williams, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers

A strong across the board pivot, especially for the 2 hardest to fill categories, Sweet Lou is a great mid round pick for punt steals. DeRozan, Williams and Gallo are the only guys who can give you a z-score higher than 1 in free throw percentage at this point of the draft while providing enough everywhere else, and it's no surprise this trio is so coveted for the strategy.

Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers

Tyreke isn't as strong a pivot as the guys before in this section due to not being able to contribute heavily in free throw percentage, but average in that stat is still bearable and he gives you a boost across the board in the other contrary categories, which still makes him a solid choice for punt steals. I'd prioritize all of the FT% pivots higher, but still look to scoop up Tyreke if he's available for a reasonable price.

Taurean Prince, SF, Atlanta Hawks

Taurean is another quad pivot for punt steals, but with a higher price tag than most of the guys above due to his across the board contributions elsewhere. He is a solid, fairly safe pick in the 4th to 5th rounds and a young guy with projectable upside as well.

Executing the strategy

As mentioned above, punt steals is a strategy that's more effective in stronger leagues, but can pay dividends when executed correctly. The basis of the build is a zig when your opponents zag mentality, and that can also describe the heavy emphasis on filling your hardest to fill pivots in points and free throw percentage as early as you can.

Being a low frequency event, steals is a prime category to employ punt breakers at the right time, and this will come up quite often in daily leagues when your opponent hits a low number for their weekly steals and you have a chance to pounce. Even in weekly leagues, there will be opportunities to steal the category (no pun intended), and you should be using projections to figure out the right times to attempt to do so.

Flex spots and value picks for the build will be devoted to bigs, and again, emphasis should be put on bigs who will help you to maintain your percentages. Keeping efficiency in check is a key to playing this strategy effectively, so keep an eye out for that.

Your surplus value picks who can return early to mid round value include Kevin Love (1st round value), LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd), Deandre Ayton (2nd), Jarrett Allen (2nd), Enes Kanter (3rd), Marc Gasol (3rd), Jonas Valanciunus (3rd), Brook Lopez (3rd), Myles Turner (3rd), Al Horford (3rd), Blake Griffin (4th), Serge Ibaka (5th), J.J. Redick (5th) and Dewayne Dedmon (6th).

Later round pick risers include Harrison Barnes (7th), Dirk Nowitzki (7th), JaVale McGee (7th), Julius Randle (7th), Jerami Grant (8th), Carmelo Anthony (8th), Jakob Poetl (8th), Ryan Anderson (9th), Pau Gasol (9th), Alex Len (10th), Marcin Gortat (11th), Joe Harris (11th), and JaMychal Green (11th).

Punt steals is one of the most difficult strategies to draft effectively, and require a large amount of attention towards maintaining percentages throughout your draft - something that beginners to punting might not have the experience to pull off effectively. The reward lies in a strategy that is at its best against the strongest opponents, and being the sharpest of the sharps is a prize that is definitely worth going for. Best of luck!

The RotoBaller Guide to Punting in Fantasy Basketball