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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/23/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including James Wood, Corbin Carroll and others!
Welcome to another Saturday, RotoBallers! Today we get a very intriguing slate that I'm very excited about. There are so many pitchers on the mound today that I can't wait to fade and it's making it hard to limit the choices! But you can't get too crazy with betting homers so I'll try my best not to get carried away.
In this article, I'll focus on four home run spots that I think are strong plays this Saturday from across Major League Baseball. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks!
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 23, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/23/2026)
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390, BetMGM)
I've been a big James Wood guy ever since I wrote about him last year in my weekly Breakouts or Fake Outs series. It also doesn't hurt that he helped me cash a 161-1 homer parlay last season so he'll always be someone I'm more than willing to back. And while you may shudder at the fact he's facing the Braves, you shouldn't be that afraid because it's Grant Holmes.
may you find someone who loves you as much as james wood loves going oppo pic.twitter.com/rumVnOJGjh
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 12, 2026
Holmes has just one start against the Nationals in his career so there's not a whole ton of BvP data we can rely on. But at the same time, Wood faced him three times and did hit a homer off of him. So the small sample size doesn't hurt our cause here!
As for Wood, what reason would you have not to back him? The only knock against him is a high strikeout rate,, but everywhere else on his Baseball Savant page is Nationals red. And Holmes doesn't exactly generating a ton of strikeouts so that adds up to more balls in play here.
If there's a worry it's that Wood hasn't been as good on the road as he is at Nationals Park. But he does generate a similar fly-ball rate (44.1%) and HR/FB rate (26.7%) against righties on the road as he does when facing righties at home. The hard-hit rate is actually higher too. It's an increase in strikeouts that holds him back. But as we mentioned earlier, that's not the biggest strength of Holmes'.
Wood is mainly going to face a combo of four-seamers and sliders from Holmes. The four-seamer will be the pitch to get as Holmes has a .462 xwOBA on it this year. Wood has hit ten of his thirteen homers against four-seamers and sliders, so getting these two as the most likely pitches he sees is very beneficial.
The pitch to watch will be the curve. It's one of Holmes' best weapons and Wood hasn't been great against curves this season. But, if he's able to foul it off enough then he's sure to see a more homer-friendly pitch come his way.
Regardless, I have to back Wood in this spot. It gets out in a hurry when it comes off his bat so let's hope that Holmes leaves one out for him.
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400, Hard Rock Bet)
Zach rolled with Carroll yesterday and I'm rolling it over in a matchup I love against Michael Lorenzen of the Rockies. Over the last seven days Carroll has a 27.8% barrel rate to go along with a 66.7% hard-hit rate which has amount to two home runs. Both homers came in one game against the Rockies and one was off Lorenzen.
Corbin Carroll goes deep to put the @Dbacks ahead 🐍 pic.twitter.com/5MgAQVNSkL
— MLB (@MLB) May 7, 2026
Now that was at Coors Field, but it's not like Chase Field isn't a solid place to hit either. And while Lorenzen has been better on the road, he still struggles massively against lefties with them hitting for a .487 wOBA on the road. At Coors lefties hit him for a .541 wOBA, so it's clear that regardless of where he pitches this season that lefties are going to crush.
So this makes for a fantastic spot to fade Lorenzen. He'll probably change his approach but it may not matter. Lorenzen generally features changeups, four-seamers, curves and cutters against lefties. Three of those four pitches carry an xwOBA of .437 or greater against them. The changeup has a .340 xwOBA against, so even that pitch is likely to get crushed.
The one that Carroll blasted out of Coors was a four-seamer. That's been Lorenzen's most homer prone pitch to date with him allowing four homers against it to lefties. He's not going to throw junk exclusively to Carroll so we're certain to see a few four-seamers cross the plate in this matchup.
I don't feel like there needs to be much more data here for this matchup but it's also worth noting that while Carroll's just 2-8 in his career against Lorenzen, both hits have been homers. When he gets it against Lorenzen, he really gets it.
Let's hope he gets another one. Now onto the next. Do I sense some Same Game Parlay energy coming?
