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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/22/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ian Happ. Drake Baldwin and others.
Warmer temperatures are expected across the country today, which should favor the bats and increase the likelihood of some more long balls. We have quite a few "gas cans" on the bump today, who can we target with hitters, so I expanded my home run picks to five, including my longshot bet at +800 odds!
If you read this piece on Monday, you'll know that we hit on Matt Olson and Max Muncy, the latter homered twice! We usually only need to hit one HR prop to break even on the night, so any night that we can cash multiple bets is going to be a winning night. Let's see if we can't keep the good times rolling today and cash some more home run player props!
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. All odds are based on what was available at the time of publishing, so make sure to shop around and see if you can find better odds on other books throughout the day. Now let's get to the picks, already!
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/22/2026)
Ian Happ OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+575 Bet365)
How often do we get a cleanup hitter at Wrigley Field against a home-run-prone pitcher for odds better than +500? It's wild, right? Ian Happ is having another boringly effective season for the Cubbies, quietly slugging four home runs against RHP while sporting an excellent 22.6% Barrel%. He's often overlooked in the fantasy community, as he's been pretty good, but not great, for a long time - similar to someone like Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates.
Ian Happ makes it TWELVE runs for the @Cubs! pic.twitter.com/HBaosjiluF
— MLB (@MLB) April 17, 2026
Happ will face Philly veteran Taijuan Walker, who has allowed five big flies to lefties already this season. Walker's K% drops to just 13% against LHH, and his walk rate spikes, too. So while Happ has some swing-and-miss in his bat (as most power hitters do), I think he's set up here to make some quality contact in this spot, especially considering Walker has only a 7% SwStr% and a terrible 91% Z-Contact%.
We know it doesn't take all that much to get under a pitch and drop it in the basket at Wrigley, so I really like our chances of getting another Happ homer here.
Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 Bet365)
We are going right back to the Braves today, as they'll face a pitcher who has been a home-run-allowing machine the last few years, Zack Littell. The right-hander is off to another pretty bad start with the long ball this year, allowing seven home runs, five of those to lefties!
Littell is sitting at a 19% Barrel% to lefties so far, which immediately brings guys like Matt Olson, Baldwin, and Dominic Smith into play. While I was on Olson on Monday, I am going to roll with Baldwin today, as he's shown just as much power as Olson and has some better odds.
Love the Drake pic.twitter.com/96RxzGREU7
— BravesVision (@BravesVisionTV) April 21, 2026
Baldwin's 27.5 Barrel% against RHP is behind only Olson by a few points, as both sluggers have four of their homers off righties this season. The pitch mix looks favorable here for Baldwin, too, as he's performed well against the cutter, sinker, splitter combo that Littell usually features to LHH.
The Nationals' bullpen isn't anything to write home about either, and Baldwin hit a home run off a lefty last night on a breaking ball down in the zone, just showing how locked in he is at the plate right now. He's a tremendous young hitter, and the books have not priced him adequately for this matchup at all. Let's take advantage.
