X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Risers and Fallers for Week 7: Buy or Sell?

By Mr.schultz (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some fantasy baseball bats for week seven that have hit the middle of May either extremely hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. It’s been about six weeks and now these numbers are really starting to mean something, but do keep a level head on the whole when approaching surges.

For reference, here's a tasty little screencap of the premium power tool that much of the inspiration for this article comes from. It pulls the fly-ball, pull and hard-hit rates for players -- metrics associated with power -- and looks at notable recent swings in performance.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Power Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a free sample:

 

Power Risers

Kyle Seager - (3B, SEA):

While it hasn’t been overwhelming, Seager has hit three homers in May after bopping just one round-tripper in 75 April at-bats. We know better than just to be results-oriented though, so let’s see why he’s got a spot here. Wow, okay then. Well, his fly-ball rate is up to 51 percent in May (41.7 in April), his pull rate has risen 17 percent to 51.9 percent and his hard-hit rate has more than doubled from 24.6 percent to 50 percent.

Well, that’s something. And he’s striking out a little less (down 2.1 percent) so that always helps. This is a guy who struck only eight of his 57 batted-balls at 100 mph or greater in April. However, since May 4 he’s exceeded that mark 15 times on 41 batted balls. While he’s still getting a bit too much lift under some of them, this is marked improvement for the usually-consistent slugger.

Jose Bautista - (OF, TOR):

Joey Bats has already gone yard five times in May after leaving the park just once in April and he’s always improved his average by nearly 70 points. So, is the power truly back? Consider that he’s now pulling the ball at a 60-percent clip in May (33.9 percent in April) alongside a 13 percent uptick in hard-hit rate. His hard hits are also starting to have more useful launch angles within that 15-35 degree mark versus many grounders and flat liners. It’s not predictive, but don’t think he’s just experiencing some fluky blip either.

Chris Davis - (1B, BAL):

Davis’ power is well known at this point, and that’s why it was so disconcerting to see him battling through some dings in a powerless second half of April. He only hit one homer from April 15 through May 10, but since then he’s left the yard five times in five games. Not only that, but he’s doubled his walk-to-strikeout ratio from 0.33 to 0.65 as he’s seeing the ball better and not pressing as hard.

While his fly-ball and pull rates are up some, it’s his monstrous 56.7 percent hard-hit rate that has us excited. That mark was only 29.8 percent in April, as most of it was classified as “medium” contact by Fangraphs. The former 53-homer bat will have his streaks, but when he’s on you need to be there.

Logan Morrison - (1B, TB):

Yeah, that’s right -- this guy’s still hitting. Not only that, but he’s improving as the season progresses. LoMo had a flashy first week and then really fell off most grids with a cold third week, as most folks understandably figured the bottom had fallen out and regression was here. Well, Morrison has hit safely in eight of his last nine games, with four of those games yielding homers.

He’s trading off strikeouts for power, as his strikeout rate has more than doubled in May (36.5 percent!) while he’s cut his soft-contact rate in half to a measly 8.6 percent. Tack on a 14 percent rise in fly balls and you’ve got a recipe for some dingers. An interesting note is how he’s improved against offspeed pitches, as he’s already hit four homers off of them after golfing just two over the fence all of last season.

 

Power Fallers

Cesar Hernandez - (2B, PHI):

It was fun and all, but there was very little chance this hype train was going to hold steady for long. Hernandez has now gone without an extra-base hit since May 1, and his last RBI came with his last homer -- way back on April 23. There’s little doubting that he can’t steal and be a decent contact guy, but his puny 12.5 percent hard-contact rate points to his poor 84.9 mph average exit velocity. He simply doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls and won’t really offer up enough hard contact that when he does put it in the air, it stands a real chance of doing damage. Don’t sit around waiting for the second tide of power, it isn’t in the cards.

Jose Ramirez - (2B/3B/OF, CLE):

Ramirez followed up his spicy breakout campaign of 2016 by hitting .330 with six homers (over half of his total from ’16) in April. We were all excited as to what further magic was about to unfold, but then May hit. Or rather, didn’t hit. Through 15 May games, Ramirez has just two extra-base hits (a double and a triple) with three RBI. His line-drive rate is down nearly 10 percent and while his hard-hit rate remains around 34 percent, his soft-contact has ballooned up from 12.8 percent to 21.4 percent. Yikes.

Outside of his 102.7 mph triple on May 3, his other five 100-plus mph hits have all ended up being outs. Yes, you can be both bad and unlucky at the same time and it looks a lot like this. He needs to pull out of this tailspin before his emerging swing that had done so much good work gets truly damaged. He should be okay, but this is legitimate trouble.

Ian Desmond - (1B/OF, COL):

Remember when everyone got super excited about Desmond finally coming back and getting reap the Coors Field rewards, and then he hit two homers in his third game back and everything seemed incredible? Well, while the hits have been falling (.299 average after going 1-for-8 in the doubleheader on May 18) his power hasn’t resurfaced since that two-homer game. He had one two-double game since then on May 11 (also his only other multi-RBI game of the season) but mostly he’s just been sprinkling in singles.

We know he has power -- he’s averaged 22 homers over his last five seasons -- but he’s simply not lifting the ball! His 18.6 percent fly-ball rate entering play on Thursday is easily a career-low mark, and is almost half of his career mark of 31.2 percent. This is coming with what would be a career-high hard-hit rate of 37.2 percent, it’s just a matter of that danged launch angle. He should be fine and the homers should flow as he hits his groove in 2017, but it’s important to note what’s going on underneath the surface.

Nicholas Castellanos - (3B, DET):

Castellanos has had an interesting season in terms of power. His 16 barrels are good for a spot in the top-10 of the MLB, and yet he has just three homers and a poor .224 average through 39 games thus far. His 51.4 percent hard-hit rate is third out of all qualified hitters per Fangraphs, behind only Miguel Sano and Paul Goldschmidt. Both of those guys are doing alright, so what gives?

Well, there’s no grand explanation but the metrics point to his pull rate dropping 12 percent and his hard-hit rate sinking 14 percent in May, with the most egregious trend being a 10 percent rise in grounders (mostly taken from his line-drive rate). It’s also worth noting that his hard-hit rate is 64.2 percent at home against a 38.9 percent mark on the road, for those who like to know little things like that. The one ball that he’s hit in the air over 100 mph in the last 10 days went 396 feet and resulted in an out, just for extra insult. He still owns positive metrics on the whole and should improve, but is trending in the wrong direction at the moment.

 

More Risers and Fallers

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Stefon Diggs

Likely to Begin Camp Working on the Side
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Xavier Legette

Should be More Productive
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Cole Bishop

has Good Shot to Win a Starting Job
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Nate Wiggins

Ravens Think Nate Wiggins has Star Potential
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Quinshon Judkins

More Details Emerge on Quinshon Judkins' Arrest
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kaden Elliss

Could be Atlanta's Most Impactful Pass-Rusher
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Darius Robinson

Ready to Make his Mark in 2025?
Jauan Jennings

Expected to Report for Training Camp
Trey Smith

the Only Player Still on the Franchise Tag
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Jauan Jennings

Seeking New Deal or Trade From 49ers
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF