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Fantasy baseball drafts (and their articles) are almost all about finding the next superstar and unearthing talent late, but we can't forget that surrendering value by over-drafting can be just as crucial. There's insight out there for almost anything, but coverage of points leagues is still lacking and we can't have our RotoBallers falling behind.
To evaluate overvalued players here, we will utilize Average Draft Position (ADP) data made available from NFBC Cutline points leagues, as they separated that data for us from general ADP that is accurate as of early March. We know that the apex of the fantasy baseball draft season is approaching and we want to be a pillar for you in the war room. I reserve the right to edit names/analyses as I please if situations change, but I'll be sure to drop a note in bold if I do!
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Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues - Overvalued Hitters
Catcher: Salvador Perez (Cutline ADP: 94, No. 6 C)
Perez enters his age-34 season having posted the worst wRC+ of his career (86) in 2023. That epic 48-homer season was just three years ago and his being a constant at an unsteady position for over a decade makes his ADP sticky. He isn’t bad now, but we can’t simply chalk up recent dips to injury and ignore the aging curve at a taxing position.
Yes, he’ll play some first base but it’s likely negligible by now. His walk rate sits at 3.5% with a K rate of 23% over the last two seasons. He won’t run and his OBP is hard-pressed to climb above .300 without a change in approach. The observed tier behind him, consisting largely of the next generation of Cs, provides better value. Use this pick range elsewhere.
First Base: Spencer Steer (Cutline ADP: 69, No. 9 1B)
Steer broke out in ‘23 with 23 HRs, 15 steals, and an .820 OPS with a 10.2% walk rate boosting it. We got some contact, power, speed, and discipline here. Evaluating how much of those gains will carry forward is the backbone of draft prep, but it’s hard to get excited given the Statcast profile under the hood.
Steer was 44th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, Avg. Exit Velo, Barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Luckily, he plays half of his games at the glorious Great American Ballpark. As always, articles such as this do not mean “Player X is BAD,” but rather that the value is suboptimal. Steer had no outfield experience before last year and Cincy's immense depth could squeeze him if this doesn't improve:
By 2023 Statcast FRV, Spencer Steer was MLB's 5th worst defender.
But if you're looking for something to be optimistic about, Steer's Arm Strength ranked in the 73rd percentile.
That could help him become a serviceable RF -- he'd be required to cover less ground out there too. pic.twitter.com/FCYwiD9j5H
— Reds in Four (@RedsInFour) December 20, 2023
Second Base: Bryson Stott (Cutline ADP: 93, No. 10 2B)
Sophomore Stott looked far more comfortable than rookie Stott, with an OPS that climbed nearly 100 points. He leaned into the new rules with a 31-of-34 rate on SBs while popping a useful 15 HRs in 640 PAs. The early struggles of Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber opened the door to leadoff duties for Stott in April-May, but then he settled into the 5-7 range from June on.
He played nearly the entire season in a premium slot but only tallied 140 R+RBI, which puts him around fellow keystoners Thairo Estrada, Andres Gimenez, Luis Arraez, Zack Gelof, and so on. But those names all go a round or more later. Perhaps the 26-year-old Stott find another level with pop at a hitter-friendly Philly venue, but I’d rather stack up some outfield or pitching around this slot.
Third Base: Elly De La Cruz (Cutline ADP: 23, No. 4 3B)
Could EDLC blossom into a top-five pick? Sure. But he’s only 22 years old and has several questions to answer and adjustments to make until then. He came out firing with an .881 OPS in his first MLB month (June ‘22) but then his OBP fell below .280 in both July and August. His strikeout rate was above 30% in each of his four months in the bigs.
The groundball rate often held above 50% as he struggled to consistently lift the ball. Per Statcast, he barely hit above .200 on breaking pitches (.191 xBA) and he had a whopping 45% strikeout rate on four-seamers. Even if we can simply progress to where he’s destroying fastballs while breakers get sacrificed to the K gods then maybe we’ll get there at this ADP. Would Cincinnati demote him if early struggles rear their head? Do you not play in a format that punishes whiffs?
Elly De La Cruz in the 80 games he played after this:
.216/.283/.375, 8.1% BB%, 34.6% K%
Pump the brakes https://t.co/zYcM2UVtM0
— Ethan Fisher (@efisher330) February 24, 2024
Shortstop: Oneil Cruz (Cutline ADP: 59, No. 11 SS)
Cruz only played nine games last year before a season-ending ankle fracture ended the fun. He cracked a homer, swiped three bags, and logged seven walks to eight strikeouts in 40 PAs. This is a player who held nearly a 5:1 K:BB ratio the year before.
His (brief) MLB career thus far has produced a .555 OPS and 51.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Yes, it’s only 122 PAs, but wow. His raw tools are capable of superstardom, but you better hope the glimpse of improved plate discipline in ‘23 is what you’re getting moving forward.
Outfield: Cody Bellinger (Cutline ADP: 38, No. 14 OF)
Scott Boras' shenanigans aside, Bellinger is one year removed from back-to-back seasons of atrocious plate discipline and barely squeaking an OBP above .250 out. Now, that’s not to write off an astounding ‘23 campaign with a tremendous .307/.356/.525 slash line, 26 HRs, and 20 SBs. No, that happened alright! But his MVP season in 2019 happened as well, and then we got three straight seasons of decline.
His ADP should stabilize now that Belly has signed with the Cubbies and perhaps re-entering the settings that led him to pop in ‘23 will encourage folks to buy back in. Maybe there’s something to that, but it isn’t like his drop following ‘19 came with a change in scenery.
Do you think he will hit .425 on offspeed pitches again? (This was .160 in ‘22 and .195 in ‘21, but over .300 in ‘19 and ‘20.) His xBA on breaking pitches was only .246 but he hit .287 in reality, with a similar jump on fastballs (.257 xBA, .286 AVG).
Bellinger’s overall .268 xBA is still good, a 73rd-percentile mark, but the gap between that and his .307 AVG was the eighth-highest among 258 qualified batters. His respective SLG-xSLG and wOBA-xwOBA gaps of .043 and .091 each rank fifth. Just be prepared for variance to swing the other way. This is tough to replicate:
26 homers on 26 barrels and the same hard-hit rate as Jon Berti and Nick Ahmed
— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) February 26, 2024
Outfield #2: Josh Lowe (Cutline ADP: 60, No. 20 OF)
Lowe smashed the gas pedal in ‘23 with a .292/.335/.500 and 20 HRs in 501 PAs for Tampa Bay. He went 32-of-35 on the basepaths and played through several adjustments. His strikeout rate went from 20-25% in April-May to 30-35% in June-July, but then he dropped that to ~20% in the final two months. So what’s not to like?
The Rays are the Rays and will do whatever it takes to optimize their lineup. Lowe bats lefty and delivered an .854 OPS, 136 wRC+, and 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. But southpaws “held” him to a .712 OPS and 97 wRC+ with a 30% K rate. The ceiling is capped compared to others who have paths to playing a full season for your bottom line.
Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues - Overvalued Pitchers
Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (Cutline ADP: 68, No. 13 P)
Skubal is an incredibly talented arm with plenty to offer, but this format doesn’t adequately reward his risk profile. He blew expectations out of the water with a 2.80 ERA (2.00 FIP!) and an astounding 102:14 K:BB in just 80 IP of work. The lefty was particularly epic in September, but he faced CHW (x2), LAA, OAK, and KC. Statcast says he allowed just one barrel across those five outings. No matter the schedule, such results are incredible. But he had a lot going for him.
He’s struggled to stay on the mound in the early stages of his career, missing the final months of 2022 with elbow surgery (flexor tendon). This led to his ‘23 debut not coming until July 4 as he recovered. The lighter workload means he probably won’t lead the league in innings in ‘24 and why he’s the only top-20 pitcher that ATC Projections have pitching fewer than 160 frames.
You can tell that the general philosophy is that one must be careful paying for the top of any perceived tier. If Skubal represents the first sizeable durability risk of the top 10/15/20 SPs then you must question whether the price is right regarding “baked-in risk.” You can’t always lean on, “Well I can get a comparable output on aggregate in another round or two,” because you have to draft someone here. Maybe you feel uber-safe elsewhere and want the what-if upside. But doing so well within the top 100 should give you pause.
Pitcher: Eury Perez (Cutline ADP: 107, No. 28 P)
Perez combined for 118 innings in 2023 and likely has around 160-180 in him for ‘24, but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. The youngster won’t turn 21 until April 15 and has plenty of time to fully develop, but we may remain a year away from greatness. Not only did he have a 4.11 FIP/4.24 xFIP behind the 3.15 ERA last year, but Miami never let him go more than six innings in any of his 19 starts. He only did so six times, which can hamstring our pursuit of innings, wins, and quality starts.
Perez's hype is also built on incredible swing-and-miss potential, as evidenced by his 15.7% swinging-strike rate. That’s the third-best out of 172 SPs with >80 IP in ‘23, trailing only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow. Cool! Wait, but his 13.7% called-strike rate ranks 171st out of those 172 pitchers.
Acknowledging that Perez has a bright future and great tools to build on, he feels a year away from being foundational to a volume-based, consistent format like this. He has big whiffs and an insane 37.1% strikeout rate the first time through the order, rivaling the aforementioned Strider (39.9%) and Glasnow (38.1%).
But Perez’s K rate falls to 21.4% and 24.4% the second and third time through. This is what differentiates Strider (35.4%, 34.2%) and Glasnow (31.9%, 28.3%). I’ll also point out Perez posted a .143 BABIP in high-leverage situations despite a 0% soft-contact rate, per Fangraphs. Do you believe Perez makes the adjustment leap and Miami lets him work deeper into games? Then ignore my foolishness and buy, baby.
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