Shota Imanaga 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Japanese Arm Primed for Solid Season Despite 2025 Struggles
Shota Imanaga failed to live up to expectations last season, posting a 3.73 ERA with a 9-8 record in 144 ⅔ innings pitched. His 4.07 xERA and 4.51 xFIP suggest his performance was worse than his surface numbers. First, Imanaga's K% fell from 25.1 percent to 20.6 percent. His fastball lost velocity (91.7 mph in 2024, 90.8 mph last season) and saw its SwStr% decline from 8 percent to 6.7 percent. Imanaga's split lost effectiveness (26.2 percent SwStr% in 2024, 18.7 percent last year) despite a higher Zone% (39.6 percent to 49.9 percent), and he abandoned a changeup that generated whiffs in 2024 (17 SwStr%). Imanaga's FB% also ballooned to 54.5 percent. The 32-year-old's 13.6 percent HR/FB wasn't that bad, but turned into a lot of homers with so many flies. The good news is that Imanaga's extreme fly ball profile limits his BABIP, making him an asset in WHIP even if his ERA is inflated. The 32-year-old could also regain his strikeout ability from 2024. The Cubs provide a solid supporting cast, making Imanaga risky but a solid value at his 167.12 ADP.
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