1 day agoAlthough Alex Bowman's fourth-place starting position at Watkins Glen matched his best of the season, he was one of many drivers who elected to go for stage points at the end of Stage 1 even if it took him out of the race for the win later. Bowman remained in fourth for the entirety of the first stage before being elevated to second when Ross Chastain and Shane van Gisbergen pitted because they were not in the playoffs. This strategy play relegated him to mid-pack and he never was a contender again, but although he only finished 18th, the strategy was effective as his 31 points outscored all but three of the other playoff drivers. As a result, Bowman sits tied for third in points with Joey Logano and he is very safe to advance to the Round of 12.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 day agoRyan Blaney, who entered Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen as the playoff points leader, crashed and finished last in an opening-lap crash triggered when Corey LaJoie spun out Kyle Busch. While trying to weave his way through the wrecked cars, he was lightly grazed on the door by John Hunter Nemechek. Although it looked like Blaney had made it through the wreck, the contact from Nemechek broke his steering column. He was unable to restart his car and was parked under the damaged-vehicle policy, which drew a lot of criticism. Nonetheless, he was fortunate that most of the playoff contenders didn't finish very well and he only dropped to eighth in the standings and remains 29 points above the playoff cut line, so despite the setback, he remains highly likely to advance.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoKyle Larson has some work to do if he wants to contend for the win at Watkins Glen this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports driver made a small mistake during qualifying for this weekend's Go Bowling at The Glen and will roll off the starting grid from 20th-place when the race goes green on Sunday afternoon. That's not a major concern, though, as we have seen plenty of drivers make their way through the field at this track and still contend for good finishes. As far as Larson's track record goes at The Glen, he has won two of the last three races here. Additionally, he won at Sonoma earlier this season, which is the other "original" road course race on the schedule. Larson's No. 5 Chevrolet ranked sixth-fastest in 10-lap average during practice this weekend. He should definitely be a contender for the win on Sunday, and has huge Place Differential upside in DFS contests due to his qualifying blunder.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: NBC
2 days agoLook for Christopher Bell to be a factor in this weekend's Go Bowling at The Glen. Bell has the best average finish (6.0) of all Cup Series drivers at this race track and has never finished worse than eighth here in three career starts. He posted a career-best third-place finish in last year's Watkins Glen race after running inside the top 10 for most of the day as well. At the two traditional road course races this season (COTA and Sonoma), Bell came home with second- and ninth-place finishes (respectively). Momentum-wise, CBell is on a hot streak, with three straight top-five finishes and five results of sixth or better over the last five Cup Series races overall. Look for the No. 20 Toyota to be a contender at Watkins Glen on Sunday.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Racing America
2 days agoTy Gibbs is still knocking on the door of his first NASCAR Cup Series win, and nobody would be surprised if that first victory came at a road course, such as Watkins Glen this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing rookie has emerged as one of the best drivers on the road courses ever since he joined NASCAR's top series, and at COTA and Sonoma this season he has the best average running position (4.76) of all drivers. In all of the road course races since the start of 2023, Gibbs ranks fifth-best in that statistic with a 10.58 average running position. Gibbs finished fifth at The Glen last season and should be a strong, top-five contender this weekend as well. The No. 54 Toyota was 17th-fastest in practice on Saturday and Gibbs will roll off from the 15th-place starting spot on Sunday.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Win The Race
2 days agoTyler Reddick is going to be a very popular pick on DraftKings this weekend at Watkins Glen. The road course ace was priced low by the DFS site at just a $9,500 salary, and then he went out and qualified 16th for Sunday afternoon's Go Bowling at The Glen--giving him solid Place Differential potential in the race. Additionally, Reddick was the fastest in practice on Saturday and also had the best 10-lap average. All of this should skyrocket Reddick's ownership on the slate, so if you're a contrarian-type of player, it may be wise to look elsewhere. But can you really go against the driver that has such a high ceiling? Reddick has never finished worse than 10th at Watkins Glen and has posted a single-digit finish in 12 of his last 14 road course starts, including three wins during that span.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Jayski
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2 days agoDespite missing the playoffs and having plenty of bad finishes this season, Kyle Busch is in the middle of quite a hot streak right now. Since the break in the schedule for the Olympics, Rowdy hasn't finished worse than 12th in a Cup Series race, and he's currently on a four-race streak of top-10 finishes after coming home seventh at Atlanta last weekend. Even without that momentum, though, Busch would've been one to watch at Watkins Glen this weekend. In the seven races he's ran at traditional road courses since joining Richard Childress Racing, Kyle Busch has finished third or better three times, and he's ended up 14th or better in all but one of those seven races as well. He finished 14th here at Watkins Glen last season, but Busch's record at this track is quite stellar; he's a two-time Glen winner and has finished 11th or better in 14 of his 18 total starts at the track.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Driver Averages
2 days agoThe NASCAR Cup Series is at a road course this weekend, which means it's time to put Chris Buescher on your radar. The Roush-Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has finished 11th or better in 12 straight road course races, and here at Watkins Glen specifically, he has finished seventh and ninth in the Next Gen era. At the two traditional road courses this season (COTA and Sonoma), Buescher has the 11th-best average running position (13.44) and he ranks seventh-best in that statistic over all road course races in the Next Gen era (with an average running position of 14.14). The No. 17 Ford was 16th-fastest in practice this weekend and Buescher qualified 24th for Sunday's Go Bowling at The Glen. Although neither of those results are out of this world impressive, it is worth noting that Buescher looked very good on the long runs and had the fourth-best 10-lap average, which shows that he has good long-run speed for the race.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Driver Averages
2 days agoRoad courses have always been Bubba Wallace's Achilles heel in the NASCAR Cup Series, as he has only achieved one top-five and two top-10 finishes in 30 road-course starts, with those coming on the Indianapolis and Charlotte rovals that are quite different from a natural road course like Watkins Glen. Having said that, he's definitely improved in recent years and has probably been aided by the setup notes from his teammate Tyler Reddick, one of the best road racers in the Cup Series. In last year's Watkins Glen race, Wallace started and finished 12th, easily his best result in both categories, although this season he has arguably regressed, as his qualifying position of 32nd is his worst ever at Watkins Glen. He'll likely have an anonymous mid-pack run in Sunday's race.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoAlthough Daniel Suarez is not a lock to advance in the playoffs by any means, it's looking pretty good for him despite how slow he was for most of the season. His second-place finish at Atlanta put him 22 points above the cutline and now he is going to Watkins Glen, where he starts eighth and has frequently run very well with three top five finishes. Furthermore, his teammate Ross Chastain (who normally doesn't qualify well) is on the pole, which indicates that Trackhouse Racing really brought something special to the track this weekend. His performance in the last six races has probably been better than the rest of the season combined. All these factors suggest that Suarez will probably earn a top ten as well as advance to Round 2 of the playoffs as long as he doesn't have a DNF.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoJuan Pablo Montoya makes his return to the NASCAR Cup Series for the first time in a decade at Watkins Glen, which brought a lot of renewed attention to his career and legacy. Although many ignorant fans reduced his career to little more than crashing into a jet dryer in the 2012 Daytona 500, it's clear that in his heyday, he was pretty good but not great in NASCAR, but that was a decade ago. Montoya is three days younger than Jimmie Johnson, and like Johnson, he is now washed up. In his IMSA starts in 2022 and 2023, he was not very competitive despite competing in the very shallow LMP2 class and it's clear he no longer has the speed he once did, as evidenced by his 34th-place starting position. Despite his great performances many years ago and long odds, don't be tempted to bet on him today.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoAlthough Corey LaJoie has caught more heat for his performance than any driver in a long time, road courses have been one of the sole bright spots for LaJoie this year as he gave Spire Motorsports its then-best qualifying run of fifth at Circuit of the Americas and scored his best-ever driver rating on a non-drafting oval of 84.8 at Sonoma this year. This trend continued at Watkins Glen, where he qualified 18th ahead of both his teammates and despite his string of embarrassing crashes, he's actually been more consistent than people think with four top twenties in his last seven races. The general public has written off LaJoie to such an extent that he is probably undervalued for this race and a possible dark horse contender for a top ten if he doesn't overdrive.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoBrad Keselowski's season has been fairly underrated as he currently leads the NASCAR Cup Series in pass differential with 363, which is not something you would likely deduce by the eye test. However, even though he's probably been a top 12 this season, his hopes of advancing to the Round of 12 do not look good. Keselowski sits one point below Ty Gibbs for the final transfer spot and starts 28th at Watkins Glen. Although Keselowski used to be great there in the 2010s, he has never finished better than 10th on a road course with the Next Gen car despite many more road course races now than in his peak years. He is nowhere near as good on road courses as most of the younger stars and has had a string of notorious crashes on road courses in recent years, so his chance for a good finish seems remote.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
2 days agoErik Jones has had a fairly disastrous 2024 season, as he has failed to lead a lap, and his only top-10 finish came 27 races ago in the Daytona 500. Don't expect that to change at Watkins Glen, where Jones starts 25th. Although he did have two top-five finishes there with Joe Gibbs Racing, since moving to Richard Petty Motorsports/Legacy Motor Club, he has only posted three road-course top-10 finishes, and none of them have come since 2022, when his cars were a lot faster than they were this year. Jones hasn't run well anywhere this year, but his road-course performance has been even worse; his Austin race where he started 38th and finished 32nd resulted in his worst driver rating in a race he finished (30.8), and that happened before his injury at Talladega. Jones will almost certainly not contend.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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