December 30, 2020

Nolan Arenado had a down 2020 which was ultimately cut short in September due to inflammation in his left shoulder. Arenado slashed just .253/.303/.434 in 182 at-bats for the Rockies, his lowest marks since his 2013 rookie season. Despite the poor campaign which included just eight home runs and 26 RBI (equating to, roughly, 22 home runs and 71 RBI in 500 at-bats), Arenado still retains huge fantasy appeal. 2020 declines in overall exit velocity and barrel rate, together with a 35.7% decline in HR/plate appearance should give managers cause for concern. That said, it is questionable whether such declines were simply an aberration caused by shoulder issues exacerbated by a small 2020 sample size. For instance, the average exit velocity on his top-5% hardest-hit balls in the air decreased by just one mph in 2020 and his percentage of 100 mph fly balls in 2020 was identical to his 2019 numbers when he blasted 41 HR. Additionally, Arenado's 2020 plate discipline, which included an elite strikeout rate in the top 1% of MLB, largely remained intact. Notwithstanding, the bigger issue is Arenado's move out of Colorado with his trade to the Cardinals. For his career, Arenado owns a .793 OPS away from Coors Field as compared to a .985 OPS in Colorado. Further, of his 235 career HR, only 99 of those were hit on the road (versus 136 in Colorado). Accordingly, even if his power metrics return to 2019 figures, with Arenado now calling Busch Stadium home, some regression in HR is likely. That said, while Arenado may see a dip in HR totals, the hit to his fantasy value won't be as prolific as some may fear. Arenado joins a more potent lineup in St. Louis and should still generate a solid batting average, with strong run and RBI totals (to go with HRs in the 30-35 range). While no longer a first-round pick due to the recency bias of a poor 2020 campaign and move to St. Louis, Arenado's ADP of 33 remains a bargain on draft day.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller