January 4, 2019

New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka posted a 3.75 ERA in 156 innings last season, finishing 12-6 with 159 strikeouts. This was an improvement on his 2017 season, where he still struck out more than a batter per inning, but allowed 35 home runs as compared to 25 last season. Tanaka also dealt with a hamstring injury in 2018, holding him under 30 starts after back-to-back seasons with 30 starts in 2016 and 2017. After breaking onto the scene with a 2.77 ERA in 136 1/3 innings in 2014, injuries and inconsistency have doomed Tanaka on his assent to the upper echelon of starting pitchers. While he has good control (160 walks in 824 1/3 career innings), he has walked two batters per nine in each of the last two seasons and has allowed 8.4 hits per nine over the last three seasons after allowing 7.4 hits per nine in 2015. The biggest sign of optimism for Tanaka is that he had a 2.85 ERA in the second half (with 76 strikeouts in 72 2/3 innings) after posting a 4.54 ERA in the first half. A big difference for Tanaka was that he induced 50% ground balls and only 27.5% fly balls, a good thing for a player that had a 39.6% hard hit ball rate and documented home run issues. With these gains, though, Tanaka’s BABIP went from .252 in the first half to .318 in the second half. A lot of Tanaka’s gains in the second half have led to optimism for 2019 and for good reason. If he is able to strikeout a batter per inning and induce 45%+ GB, all while keeping his elite controls, Tanaka could be in for a strong season. The issue for Tanaka is staying healthy as injuries seem to always find him (he was injured running the bases last season). Given this uncertainty, and the fact that he has yet to throw 200 innings in an MLB season, Tanaka’s upside is limited to an SP3.--Chris Zolli