February 21, 2021

New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson had a strong rookie campaign in 2020. He posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 40:24 K:BB in 49 2/3 innings pitched over nine starts. Despite this success, Peterson is no lock for a rotation spot heading into 2021. The Mets made numerous moves in the offseason to shore up their rotation. They signed Marcus Stroman to a qualifying offer, signed free-agent Taijuan Walker to a two-year deal, and traded for Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi. With Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and Walker locked into the first four rotation spots, Peterson will likely find himself in a competition for the fifth rotation spot with Lucchesi this spring. In addition, once Noah Syndergaard (elbow) returns from the injured list sometime in June or July, Peterson could find himself moved into a swingman role even if he breaks camp as the team's fifth starter. Also of note, since Peterson has not pitched more than a total of 129 innings over the past three seasons, the Mets could subject Peterson to an innings limit in 2021. Beyond these concerns, Peterson's 2020 metrics also suggest some ERA and WHIP regression. In 2020, he posted a 4.39 xERA, which would lead us to believe that his 3.44 ERA was partially luck-driven. In addition, his strikeout and walk rates were both within the bottom 26% of the MLB, which suggests a poor K:BB and WHIP increase in 2021. With the possibility that Peterson will not win and/or hold a rotation spot for the duration of the season, quality start and win totals will also likely be suppressed in 2021. At his current ADP of 399, Peterson is largely going undrafted in all but the deepest of mixed leagues. He is a better option for managers in dynasty formats heading into 2021 unless the Mets suffer injuries which would necessitate that Peterson remains in the rotation indefinitely.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller