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David Peralta 2019 Outlook: Expect Regression and Modest Value
6 years agoDavid Peralta enjoyed a career year in 2018. The Diamondbacks outfielder posted career highs in plate appearances (614), home runs (30), and RBI (87). His steal total dropped to four, but he wasn't caught stealing a single time. The departure of A.J. Pollock does more to ensure that Peralta is on the field every day, and while managers shouldn’t expect Peralta to hit 30 HR again this year, Peralta should manage about league-average power production while providing a strong batting average and useful run production. The peripheral stats suggest that Peralta’s newfound power is legitimate: he increased his hard-hit rate by 10%, and his xwOBA was right between Justin Upton (ADP 92) and Andrew Benintendi (ADP 30). Without Goldschmidt and Pollock, Peralta likely won’t have the team support to generate the same RBI total, but his value should be closer to Upton than his current ADP of 127, making him a strong fourth outfielder or platoon player if managers are inclined to take advantage of his dramatic home/away splits.
