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Clayton Kershaw 2023 Outlook: Durability Concerns More Than Accounted For in Price
Clayton Kershaw isn't the top pitcher in the game any longer, but the 35-year-old's performance is still outstanding when healthy. He went 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA across 126⅓ IP last year largely backed by his 2.51 xERA and 2.83 xFIP. His .268 BABIP might look lucky, but his career rate of .270 suggests it's a skill. Kershaw also reduced the spin on his heater from 2,506 RPM in 2021 to 2,408 RPM last season, sacrificing whiffs (3.7 SwStr% vs. 7.4% career) to limit hitters to a .228 xBA (.303 xBA in 2021). That works well when you also feature a devastating slider with a 22.4 SwStr%, 42 Zone%, and 48% chase rate that helped Kershaw record a 27.8 K% anyway. Kershaw will again be backed by one of the strongest overall teams in the league, so wins should be plentiful as well. That also means that Kershaw will likely be rested more often than he would be on other clubs, but it's still worth banking 120 innings of ace-level production at an ADP of 133.29 and relying on waivers to fill in the missed time.
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