Carlos Carrasco 2021 Player Outlook: High-End Starting Pitcher Despite Move To N.L. East
4 years agoCarlos Carrasco returned to form in 2020 following a battle with Leukemia in 2019 which limited him to just 80 innings pitched that season. In 2020 with Cleveland, Carrasco posted a 2.91 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and struck out 82 batters in 62 IP over 12 starts. His underlying 2020 pitching metrics largely mirrored his 2018 metrics when he struck out 231 batters over 192 IP and posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. This included a 29.3% strikeout rate (top-23% of MLB), as well as an overall exit velocity, barrel rate, and launch angle allowed which were right around or slightly below his 2018 numbers. Managers may be leery of Carrasco's uncharacteristic 2020 walk rate of 9.6% (up from 4.7% and 5.5% in 2019 and 2018, respectively). Don't be. This walk rate increase resulted from a 24 IP span in August in which he walked 15 batters. Carrasco appeared to right the ship in September when he only allowed 10 free passes over 32 IP. Heading into 2021, Carrasco should see a bump to his fantasy ceiling pitching for the New York Mets. If Carrasco can remain healthy, he should provide managers with 170-190 IP, elite ratios, along with, dare we say, 15 or more wins now that the Mets have added Francisco Lindor to the lineup and bolstered their bullpen with Trevor May. Should Carrasco maintain his excellent strikeout rate, courtesy of a slider, changeup, and curveball which all had whiff rates north of 34% in 2020, he should post 200+ strikeouts in 2021. With an ADP of 69, Carrasco projects as a high-end fantasy SP2 despite the move to the more competitive N.L. East.