January 18, 2021

Outfielder Brandon Nimmo followed up a lackluster 2019 campaign, due to a neck injury, with a solid 2020 performance. In 225 plate appearances, Nimmo posted a .280/.404/.484 line with eight home runs and 18 RBI (which translated to an 18-20 HR, 50 RBI campaign over a full 162-game slate). Looking closely at his 2020 numbers, Nimmo continued his decline in underlying power metrics including overall launch angle, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity. Nimmo also saw a sharp drop in flyball rate down to 16.1% from 28% in 2019, suggesting 2021 HR regression. Alternatively, Nimmo's strikeout and barrel rate both increased, and his walk rate remained elite. These factors, coupled with a sharp increase in groundball rate, slight increase in line drive rate, and consistency in his exit velocity on FB/LD (92.3 mph), suggest continued solid batting average and elite on-base performances for 2021. If Nimmo opens 2021 as the Mets starting centerfielder batting leadoff, he will have a tremendous opportunity to post high run totals in a loaded lineup, given his on-base acumen. While his sprint speed of 28 ft/sec is in MLB's 77th percentile, it has not previously translated to steals. As such, notwithstanding his OBP and possibility as the leadoff hitter, expectations for stolen base output must be tempered. With a 258 ADP, managers can select Nimmo in the later rounds for average, elite OBP, runs, and (roughly) 15 HR. Of course, should the Mets acquire a centerfielder, Nimmo may find himself on the short end of a time-share in left field with Dominic Smith if there is no universal designated hitter. Accordingly, Nimmo carries playing time risk. That said, given the low ADP versus potential return, the risk could be worth the reward.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller