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Antonio Brown 2021 Outlook: Old, But Not Busted
During Antonio Brown's incredible run over the second half of the 2010s as the unquestioned best wide receiver in football, I always thought his skill set would age well. As he enters his age 33 season, I'm taking the win on that prediction. Nothing about Brown's 2020 suggested any significant drop-off in ability. I firmly believe the only thing standing between AB and a return to being an elite WR1 is volume. The days of 150 targets are probably over, but the fact that it's even remotely possible makes AB a ridiculous value in 2021 fantasy drafts. In his eight regular season games with the Bucs last season, AB averaged 14.6 ppg. The historical threshold for WR1 level production is about 15 ppg. Even though he was just the WR23, he was perilously close to WR1 level production. AB was targeted 7.7 times per game last season. After AB returned, Chris Godwin was targeted 6.9 times per game and Mike Evans 7.8 times per game. That is much closer than the 5-6 round discrepancy in the ADPs of Evans/Godwin vs. Brown would suggest. AB can still play football at an extremely high level. He is a WR2 at a WR4 price and his upside is still elite WR1 if something happened that resulted in him getting more volume. Draft him as your WR4 and reap the benefits.
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