January 29, 2019

You know Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo is a top-tier fantasy first baseman (ranked third by RotoBaller) when his down year in 2018 consisted of a .283/.376/.470 slash line, 25 home runs, 74 runs scored, 101 RBI and six stolen bases in 153 games. The three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner has pretty much been a lock for 25-30 home runs, 90-100 RBI, a healthy amount of runs and a handful of steals. In the last five years, Rizzo has had over 30 homers four times and over 100 RBI four times. He's also scored 90-plus runs three times and has played in at least 140 games in six straight seasons. The 29-year-old (30 in August) has great plate discipline and struck out a career-low 12.0 percent in 2018, giving him a safe floor in both batting average and on-base percentage. A drop in his fly balls three years in a row is a bit alarming and might help explain his power drop in 2018, but Rizzo still made hard contact 34.1 percent of the time last season. Some of his depressed numbers might have been the result of Kris Bryant's injury and the fact that he couldn't protect Rizzo in the lineup for much of the second half. Assuming Rizzo plays a full season, he could easily return to the 30-homer mark while providing 90-100 RBI, a high average and 80-90 runs scored with a few steals. Target him in the third or fourth round of drafts.--Keith Hernandez