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PGA DFS DraftKings Picks: RBC Canadian Open


Welcome back RotoBallers! Patrick Cantlay captured his second career title at the Memorial, shooting a final round eight-under 64 to eclipse Adam Scott by two shots. Cantlay had been knocking on the door recently with seven top-10 performances in his last 12 events, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the now eighth-ranked player in the world was finally able to enter the winner's circle again.

For those of you that are used to Seth being the conductor of this article weekly, he will be back next weekend for the U.S. Open. I will do my best to fill in with as much quality as he usually provides and will hopefully be able to produce a winner in his absence. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. I will be breaking this down from a GPP perspective, but I will include some cash-game plays I like along the way.

If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

 

RBC Canadian Open - PGA DFS Overview

The PGA Tour heads to Canada this weekend for the RBC Canadian Open. After being held at Glen Abbey Golf Course for the past four seasons, the event will move to Hamilton Golf and Country Club for the first time since 2012.

Located in Ancaster, Ontario, renowned English architect Harry Colt designed 18 of the current 27 holes in 1914, with Robbie Robinson adding the additional 9 in 1974. The course was lengthened and renovated in the late 1990s and has been built to provide players with a difficult task throughout the venue. The course is a tight Par-70 that measures slightly under 7,000 yards, making it one of the shortest stops during the 2019 PGA calendar season. Fairways are wide, but the rough is exceptionally penal for those that fail to find the short grass.

The facility went through a particularly rough winter. Ice and snow covered the grounds and caused a chemical reaction to its greens. The shade patterns of the trees were going to cause even further damage, so the club was forced to eliminate a handful of them - substantially more than their regular maintenance program typically removes. If the course dries out over the next few days and the rough stays at a reasonable length, scoring will be more complicated than some might be expecting. However, if they overcompensate and make the course too wet, it is going to be target practice for all the players into the greens.

Let's take a look at the stats:

Stat Hamilton Tour Average
Driving Distance 278 283
Driving Accuracy 59% 61%
GIR Percentage 67% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 60% 57%
Average three-putts per round 0.61 0.55

2012's cut line was one-under par.

While Dustin Johnson is the defending champion of the event, it might be more prudent to look at the last time the tournament was played at Hamilton Country Club in 2012. Scott Piercy captured the title at 17-under par, but it remains to be seen if scoring will be that easy this time around. If we go back a little further, Furyk was able to find the winner's circle here in 2006.

In Vegas, as of Monday on 5dimes.eu, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 6/1 and is followed closely by Brooks Koepka at 6.5/1, Rory McIlroy at 9.5/1 and Justin Thomas at 15/1.

My custom stat model will be focusing on the following:

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced at $10,000 or above;

Dustin Johnson ($11,900) -  Last year's champion at this event, Dustin Johnson made some headlines on Monday after announcing he has split with his swing coach Claude Harmon. It is difficult to pinpoint what this exactly will mean for his prospects in Canada, but it is noteworthy news to consider. The American has posted three straight top-eight results at this tournament and will be one of the most popular options on the DraftKings board. If you are looking to go contrarian in GPP lineups, Johnson could be faded for one of the other four $10,000 choices, but it will be a risky route to take.

Brooks Koepka ($11,700) - Even though Brooks Koepka's last three results on tour have been first, fourth and second, there is a possibility that we see him come in at sub-15 percent ownership. Most DFS players view Koepka as a big-game hunter and will probably be expecting the first-ranked player in the world to use Hamilton Country Club as a tune-up spot for next week's U.S. Open. While that is certainly a possibility, we have seen no such signs of that in the past - especially at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May, where Koepka finished in fourth place before eventually going on to win the PGA Championship the next week. My guess would be slightly over 35 percent of players start their rosters with one of Johnson or Koepka, which leaves us with an interesting game-theory play of fading the top two in GPP events.

Rory McIlroy ($11,200) - Grading out second on my model, Rory McIlroy is where I will begin roster construction. After last week's missed cut at the Memorial, McIlroy could end up being the forgotten stud of the big three. Outside of his failed adventures at Muirfield, the fourth-ranked player in the world has posted nine top-nine results in his other 10 events and might be able to take advantage of Hamilton's greens if they decide to oversaturate the grass. McIlroy has always excelled at tree-lined courses that have soft putting surfaces, and I believe while everyone else could be looking ahead to Pebble Beach, the 30-year-old might be able to sneak across the border with the title.

Matt Kuchar ($10,500) - The setup of Hamilton Country Club seems advantageous for Matt Kuchar to find success, and we are looking at a substantial decrease in salary between Kuchar and the three highest priced options, but I am not so sure I can get myself to get back to the well on the 40-year-old. Kuchar will most likely eat up more ownership than one might expect because of his salary reduction, and the American has played far too much golf for me recently. His last two results at the RBC Canadian Open have been outside the top-30, not to mention that so was his 34th place finish at Hamilton in 2012.

Justin Thomas ($10,000) - Justin Thomas remains the most significant question mark in the room. Is Thomas underpriced after last week's missed cut at the Memorial? Or is the American unplayable as he deals with his comeback after his wrist injury? The sixth-ranked player in the world always needs to be considered when he is this cheap, but outside of throwing him into some GPP lineups for contrarian value, you won't see me too heavily invested. One of the main issues for me is that he is still projected to be around 10 percent owned. I find it challenging to get myself to be overweight to that number and feel as if I am almost playing him as a defensive strategy if I do.

Mid-To-Low Priced DFS Players

Sergio Garcia ($9,500) - I think it is possible that either Justin Thomas or Sergio Garcia will be the least owned player at $8,700 or above and believe we are getting an excellent spot to target the Spaniard. Garcia is sandwiched in between Webb Simpson ($9,700), Scott Piercy ($9,300) and Henrik Stenson ($9,100), who should combine to soak up over 50 percent of ownership. Garcia's roughly 10 percent projection is a bargain, and his $9,500 tag should be considered a steal at a venue that rewards long iron play.

Henrik Stenson ($9,100) - There is a weird region here of Henrik Stenson ($9,100), Jim Furyk ($8,800) and Keegan Bradley ($8,500). All three are similar in ways, and each will be popular. Eating chalk with this area is never quite where you want to be, but I would be stunned if we don't see one of these players make a push up the leaderboard. Bradley's putter appears to be gone, and it is difficult to stomach 15 percent ownership with his volatility. Twelve of the past 13 events have seen the American lose strokes with his flat stick, and his one-time gaining amounted in just 0.1 strokes. Fuyrk is interesting, and I will discuss him a little further below, which leaves us with just Stenson. It is beginning to feel like a trap with the Swede, but the 43-year-old has ranked sixth on tour since 2014 in strokes gained at less-than-driver courses and seventh with Bent or Poa greens. His irons remain locked-in, and it is just a matter of him catching fire with his putter at this point. I prefer him as a cash-game play because of his high ownership projection but could see sneaking him into some GPP lineups for safety.

Jim Furyk ($8,800) - Jim Fuyrk is worth a look, but 17 percent ownership for a player that I don't think can win is just too much in a GPP event. However, I do believe this is an excellent spot to target the 49-year-old in cash-games. Winner of the tournament when it was played in Hamilton in 2006 and three top-13 finishes at the RBC Canadian Open in the past five seasons. Fuyrk is a great example of a golfer being a solid play in one game type and a possible fade in another.

Adam Hadwin ($8,300) - No Canadian has won the RBC Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. That is no doubt discouraging, but despite Corey Conners potentially being the best-suited game wise to do it, Adam Hadwin might actually be the most likely. Hadwin's irons have been known to run extremely hot and cold, but that isn't necessarily a negative when taking a shot with him at his $8,300 price tag on DraftKings. His bad rounds tend to tank his overall standings in strokes gained approach, ranking 106th in the field in his last 24 rounds, but Hadwin has gained at least 4.7 strokes with his irons twice in his past 11 events. We know he is going to be accurate off the tee and perhaps some quality iron play and a hot putter will help him to break Canada's curse.

Russell Henley ($7,500) -There are the two things I like about Russell Henley this week. For starters, par-five scoring will not carry as much of a premium. While you do need to score on the two chances you get, you aren't stuck with 22 percent of the holes being played at a longer distance, which in and of itself adds to my second point. Henley is a superb ball striker and long-iron player, but he can struggle when faced with more extended courses. In theory, allowing the 30-year-old to find fairways and hit from the same layup spots as everyone else should present the American with an opportunity to make a run this weekend if his putter can heat up.

Ollie Schniederjans ($7,000) - Ollie Schniederjans ranks second in his past 24 rounds in three-putt avoidance and inside the top-20 in proximity from over 200 yards. The former number one ranked amateur in the world has always been a streaky birdie marker and is worth a risk in GPP events at his $7,000 price tag and one percent projected ownership.

Hudson Swafford ($6,500) - Hudson Swafford's current form doesn't quite register as a player to keep an eye on this weekend, but his history in Canada does make him worth a second look. Priced at $6,500 on DraftKings, Swafford is only projected to carry around a three percent projected ownership but has finished inside the top-35 the last three times he has teed it up at this event. The course change does throw some of that out the window, but the American is ranked inside the top-10 in the field when it comes to three-putt avoidance, along with being ranked top-50 in par-five average, par-three average, proximity over 200 yards and strokes gained approach. The volatility is unquestioned with this selection, but we don't need much of the 31-year-old to be overweight to the field.

Custom Rankings

 

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