X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Ozzie Albies vs Jonathan Villar

Ozzie Albies - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Second basemen Ozzie Albies and Jonathan Villar are fantasy baseball draft options with different ADPs that might provide similar value in 2019. Riley Mrack examines each player to decide how to approach the 2B position on draft day.

Second base has become a treasure chest full of talent in 2019. Seeing the position’s deepest player pool in recent memory, each tier of hitters is overflowing with draft day targets. With a mixture of established veterans and a new crop of young talent that is beginning to flourish in the big leagues, the keystone position currently offers plenty of power and speed options.

Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves is a player who offers both of these highly sought after tools. A heavily admired talent among baseball experts within MLB as well as the fantasy community, he’s a superb young player who brings a dynamic energy to the diamond. Currently being selected as the fourth two-bagger off the board, is his ADP of 54 a good value?

With the newfound depth at the position, this selection might be a tad high for the 22-year-old. A comparable option who is going 34 picks later is Jonathan Villar. Although not nearly as sexy of a name to announce on draft day, the results that these two hitters will put up in 2019 could be remarkably similar. A close look at their respective skill sets will have you thinking twice on which player you’ll want to target for your roster.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Al-bies Knees

Albies’ season as a whole was impressive for a 21-year-old in his first big league campaign. He smacked 24 home runs with 105 R, 72 RBI, and 14 stolen bases to go along with a .261 AVG. He profiled as more of a speed threat than a power threat as he made his way through the minor league ranks, so the results of his HR and SB totals were surprising.

What aided Albies’ home run total was his profound ability to square up the baseball through the first three months of the year. He had a Barrel% of 5.9%, and a 33.2% Hard Hit% until the end of June that helped him get the ball out of the park. His 40.2% FB% and 14.8% HR/FB were both numbers he had never met in his entire professional career, which led to 17 HR in these months. Hitting only three more taters in July, he only hit four after July 11 as he didn’t hit the ball with the same prowess that he had done earlier. Although the switch-hitter’s FB% was nearly identical at 39.6%, his HR/FB cut almost in half to 7.5% from July to September. Albies could only maintain a 3.3% Barrel% and an underwhelming 24.6% Hard Hit% in this span, so the ball wasn’t traveling off the bat hard enough to hit the bleachers.

It wasn’t just his pop that suffered in the second half; it was his overall batting game. A .281 AVG pre-break was followed up by a dismal .226 AVG post-break. Albies was lighting it up on both sides of the plate early before faltering against right-handers in the second half. His batting average fell dramatically from .269 to .161 against these pitchers as a result of his BABIP also nosediving from .286 to .192. This drop was again due to the lack of hard hit balls that he was producing in the second half as well as his LD% dropping from 21.7% to 18.3%. Albies saw a heftier dose of off-speed and breaking pitches towards the end of the year as the league did a great job of keeping him off-balance. He will need to adapt to this new pitching approach in 2019 if he wants to return to his previous batting success of squaring up the baseball.

Since he wasn’t finding the same batted-ball profits, the Braves moved him to the bottom half of the lineup for the majority of September. This new spot in the order held a significant impact on his counting stats with the lack of at-bats. Assuming that the demotion in the lineup would cause him to take more chances on the basepaths to create more run opportunities, this wasn’t the case as he only stole two bags from the sixth spot in the Braves order.

 

Villar Radar

Villar doesn't offer as much upside as a player in comparison to Albies, but he is a compelling piece to any fantasy lineup. After an outstanding 2016, he fell back to Earth in 2017 and 2018 as he put up a modest 14 HR, 54 R, and 46 RBI to go along with a .260 AVG last year. Nothing too astonishing, but when you throw in the fact that he had 35 SB, he becomes a fantasy darling. With legitimate base path threats becoming more scarce in this day and age, Villar becomes very appealing. Despite his thrilling speed, he does offer more to the roto categories than we might initially anticipate going into 2019.

There is more to be desired with his career 8.9% BB% and 27.3% K%, but when Villar puts the ball in play, he tends to get on base. His .342 career BABIP has proven to be more than sustainable as he’s maintained this level of production throughout all of his professional years. Using his speed to his advantage, he keeps the ball on the ground at a career 2.41 GB/FB. Also a switch-hitter, he’s matchup proof with career LHH/RHH splits of .262/.254. While the 27-year-old is not a threat to win a batting title, his batting average has a safe floor with his approach and ability to be consistent on both sides of the dish.

Since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles at last year’s trade deadline, Villar’s ceiling as a home run hitter has expanded. Although his former confines of Miller Park were also hitter-friendly, Camden Yards is more balanced for all hitters and plays much better for right-handed batters. This move helps Villar as he’s put up better power numbers on this side of the dish with a .414 SLG and .147 ISO compared to .374/.117 as a lefty. He also already saw an improved performance in his two-month sample size with his new club as he went yard eight times in 54 games. Villar is unlikely to change his GB/FB approach, but he's still managed to average 17 HR per 162 games over his last three seasons.

With the move to a less offensively talented team, he spent all of his games with the Orioles batting in the top three spots of the order. In Milwaukee, Villar spent the majority of his starts as the sixth or seventh batter, which limited his counting stats. The O’s also gave him the green light more often as he stole 21 bags in 236 ABs compared to his 14 thefts in 279 ABs with the Brewers. With Baltimore searching for ways to score runs with a depreciated lineup in 2019, expect this trend to continue moving forward.

 

Where’s The Value?

The primary factor we look at as a fantasy player is the return value. If you're taking Albies at his current ADP, he will have to meet or exceed all five of his roto categories from 2018 to achieve a positive return value. After his Jekyll/Hyde 2018 performance, it's far from a guarantee that this will happen. His batted-ball metrics in the final few months of the year are concerning but we are dealing with a player in his age 21 season after all. It’s possible Albies will adjust to the pitching he saw in the second half, but it’s still a risky bet to assume he will outproduce his ADP. With manager Brian Snitker already stating he prefers Ender Inciarte in the leadoff spot, Albies projects to remain the sixth batter in the Braves lineup. Undoubtedly a stacked offensive lineup, it remains a huge hit to all of his counting stats further damaging his fantasy potential.

Though he is in a worse offense with the Orioles, Villar will still see just as many opportunities on the bases to score runs and steal bases at the top of their lineup. He may not possess the same average and power potential that Albies does, but with the move to the AL East and their notoriously hitter-friendly parks, it will help balance out his pop. He does, however, carry a higher ceiling in the SB category as he's now averaged 40 thefts in the last three seasons. In re-draft leagues, Villar is the player to target with his return value being higher at his 88 ADP.

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP