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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Dom Petrillo outlines the reasons why Stills will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.
With the extreme disappointment which is Devante Parker, the new hotness in the Miami receiving group is Kenny Stills. Someone has to catch passes on a bad team, right?
While he has not been a great receiver since being drafted out of Oklahoma, he has been much better than Parker. With Jarvis Landry out of town to the Cleveland Browns, this opens up a lot of targets from Ryan Tannehill. Targets which should go to a player in the slot.
Here are the million dollar questions for fantasy owners: is Kenny Stills ready to be his team's primary receiver and is he worth targeting in 2018 fantasy drafts? While some of my colleagues believe so and qualify him as a great sleeper, I'm not sold just yet.
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Context Matters
While Landry was considered the slot receiver in Miami, he ran only 50% of his routes there. While he operated there primarily, it was not a full-time position. Kenny Stills was also used out of the slot quite a bit including on 39% of his routes in 2017 so he is the logical player to take over this role and break out. Not so fast.
With the arrival of Albert Wilson from Kansas City and Danny Amendola from division rival New England, Stills looks to be the odd man out. While neither Wilson or Amendola is likely to gain all 140 to 150 targets delivered to Landry over the first four seasons of his career, together they may get more than these limiting the upside created by the Landry departure for anyone in the offense.
With the drafting of an athletic tight end in Mike Gesicki, the threat of using a functional tight end is there in 2018. While Julius Thomas was in the fold last season, he proved to be a shell of his Denver peak and provided no real substance to the offense. Where Thomas failed, the rookie Gesicki has a real chance to shine in the sun of Miami and whatever they are calling their stadium nowadays.
Another concern for the production of a receiver like Stills is the running game, which the Fins will desperately try to get going. The need to get their running game started has led the Dolphins to draft Kalen Ballage to pair with Kenyan Drake and the ageless wonder which is Frank Gore. This committee, while not elite, is going to get a lot of work and in the case of Gore, a lot of dump down passes from Tannehill to help try to keep defenses honest. Drake is serviceable as a starting running back and if Ballage proves to be what the Dolphins hoped when they drafted him, this could be one of the most underrated backfields in the NFL when it comes to production. If this is the case, this will even further reduce the ability for Stills, Parker or any other receiver a chance to have a monster or even good fantasy season in 2018.
While Parker is just not good at football, the Dolphins still like him and he is not going anywhere at least for this season. This means he will also get his targets and opportunity to be the wide receiver one on the Dolphins to the chagrin of everyone outside the Dolphins coaching room. Will Kenny Stills have a season the likes of his 58 receptions for 847 yards and six touchdowns of 2017? Yes, more than likely he will. But don’t expect him to take a major step forward this season, especially in an offense as mediocre as the one in Miami.
If you can get Stills at the end of your draft or in a best ball draft as your WR4, he could pay dividends. If you are drafting him in hopes of using him as a starter on a weekly basis, the return for you will be minimal and destructive as a whole to your championship hopes for 2018.
