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Griffin breaks down the pivotal x factors determining the fate of the remaining 16 teams in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Here we are, down to the final 16 teams in March Madness. Some may suggest it's a tad more chalky than we anticipated, but the upside is there are plenty of exciting matchups to look forward to.
It seems like the first year in quite some time where the remaining teams are genuinely top tier, with no one appearing out of place.
Now, let's dive into the x factors for each team and what will drive them toward the Elite Eight.
UConn - Donovan Clingan
"Cling Kong" has been a beast to start the NCAA Tournament. In the first round against Stetson, he finished with 19 points, four assists, and eight rebounds in just 20 minutes of playing time. He followed that up with 14 points, 14 rebounds, and a whopping eight blocks against Northwestern on Sunday. When he's playing at this level, the Huskies and their championship hopes soar to new heights.
You know what you're going to get out of senior guards Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer every game. They are highly talented playmakers who have shown all season long that they are the leaders of this team and the main reason they had 31 wins this season.
However, Clingan emerges as the true x factor. When he establishes his dominance in the paint, it not only opens up opportunities for the Huskies guards to hit shots but also stifles opposing teams defensively. The potential lottery pick has truly stepped up his game in the last two matchups.
REGION OF GLADIATORS (EAST REGION) NUGGET:
UConn's Donovan Clingan had eight blocked shots in Sunday's win over Northwestern.
He had 11 in six NCAA Tournament games last season.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 26, 2024
Purdue - Braden Smith
Much like UConn's guards, we know what Zach Edey brings to this Purdue team night in and night out. What remains uncertain, though, is whether their guard play is good enough to carry them to their first Elite Eight since 2019, where they narrowly lost to Virginia. The Boilermakers haven't reached the Final Four since 1980, but they have a promising chance this year, especially with strong contributions from guard Braden Smith.
Smith has showcased solid performances to kick off the tournament. He finished the first round against Grambling State with 11 points, 10 assists, and five rebounds. In Purdue's following game, a blowout win against Utah State, he played just 22 minutes but managed to score five points, dish out six assists, and grab four rebounds.
The scoring is the key here. While he's demonstrated his ability to facilitate throughout the tournament and season (averaging 7.2 assists per game), what Purdue truly needs is a player like him capable of knocking down crucial shots in critical moments.
Now, Smith has hit those shots before in the regular season, but this is a completely different stage that we're talking about here. While the Boilermakers haven't faced a close game yet, it's inevitable, and they'll need Smith to be prepared to sink those shots. If he does, Purdue emerges as a true contender for the title.
North Carolina - Harrison Ingram
The Tar Heels are guided by their senior duo of RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, but it's the supporting cast that will elevate them to new heights. The primary x factor is Ingram, who is a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. His defensive prowess stands out as his most crucial asset.
With a seven-foot wingspan, Ingram has established himself as one of the premier defenders remaining in the tournament. Considering opponents like Alabama, Arizona, and UConn on their side of the bracket, the Tar Heels will heavily rely on a defensive stalwart like him to excel.
Ingram isn't just a defensive force; he also has impressive shooting abilities for someone of his stature and excels in rebounding. He wrapped up the regular season shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc while averaging 8.8 rebounds per game. As long as the senior leaders can continue their contributions and Ingram maintains his current level of play, the Tar Heels are a clear championship contender.
Harrison Ingram with his 5th triple and the Tar Heels are back up double-digits 🐏#MarchMadness @UNC_Basketball pic.twitter.com/21Rc9MHSrl
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 23, 2024
Arizona - Keshad Johnson
Arizona can beat you in a lot of different ways, which is what makes them so special. Caleb Love, their leading scorer, brings a wealth of tournament experience and stands out as one of the most talented offensive players in the country. However, Love tends to shoot Arizona out of games, evident in his 37 percent shooting rate from the field after attempting 32 total shots in the first two rounds. This underscores the importance of players like Johnson stepping up for Arizona to advance into the Elite Eight and beyond.
Johnson has been a standout performer in the initial two games, averaging 13 points, six rebounds, and two steals per game while boasting a shooting percentage of 57 percent from the field and an impressive 60 percent from beyond the arc. The senior forward has elevated his game since entering the tournament and, much like Love, brings previous experience to the table. With aspirations of a national title, Johnson holds the key to the Wildcats' success in reaching that pinnacle.
Iowa State - Milan Momcilovic
The Cyclones are most known for their defensive prowess, having entered the tournament as the top-ranked defense. The prowess was evident in their first two games, where they held South Dakota State to 65 points and limited Washington State to just 56.
However, it's their offense that will ultimately propel them to championship contention, and Momcilovic may be their most skilled shotmaker. While guards Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert get the limelight, they aren't able to create their own shots as effectively as Momcilovic can. He's averaged 14.5 points in the opening two games and must maintain his aggressive approach, especially as they face off against a talented Illinois team that can put up points in a flurry.
Despite being just a freshman, the Cyclones' championship aspirations rest heavily on Momcilovic's shoulders. If he can evolve into the strong third option that I believe he can be, the Cyclones stand a chance at taking down Illinois and advancing to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2000.
MOMCILOVIC IS MONEY FROM DEEP 💰#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/BpSzlyHqWo
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 24, 2024
Marquette - Kam Jones
The Golden Eagles find themselves in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013, a moment they have eagerly awaited since last year's loss to Michigan State in the round of 32.
Point guard Tyler Kolek is the clear leader of this team, but it's astonishing how frequently Jones flies under the radar, unnoticed by both the media and fans. Kolek is an amazing point guard, one of the best, if not the best, in the country. However, when the game hangs in the balance and Marquette needs a bucket, Jones is the go-to-player, consistently proving his abilities in the clutch.
Jones has averaged 16.5 points per game to start the tournament and it always seems like he's delivering those points when they're most needed. If Marquette can make a push to the Final Four, which I believe they can, they will need Jones to be a high-level scorer, especially in crunch time.
Houston - Emanuel Sharp
Houston is led by senior guards Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer, but sophomore guard Emanuel Sharp has stepped up in a big way for the Cougars this season. He's been instrumental in the Cougars' success, particularly in the first two games of the tournament where he's averaging 21 points per game while shooting an impressive 50 percent from beyond the arc.
Sharp's shooting prowess was evident in their recent game against the Aggies, where he finished with 30 points, sinking seven total three-pointers. When Sharp is in this kind of form, it elevates Houston's potential to new heights. While Shead and Cryer provide consistent play, Sharp's ability to stretch the floor creates plenty of opportunities for his teammates to find open looks.
Overall, Sharp's emergence as a scoring threat adds another dimension to Houston's game, making them even more formidable as they progress through the tournament. They'll need a big game from him this Friday, especially with a tough matchup against fourth-seeded Duke looming ahead.
🇮🇱 Emanuel Sharp sure picked a great time for posting a new career-high: 30 PTS on 8-16 FG (with 7 threes) and 7-8 FT to help Houston survive and advance (100-95 OT over Texas A&M)
37.1% on 6.1 3PA this year for the sophomore, 10-for-20 3P in total after two #MarchMadness games pic.twitter.com/gvF2xMdIKL
— CBB Europe (@CBB_Europe) March 25, 2024
Tennessee - Dalton Knecht
Everyone knows that Dalton Knecht is Tennessee's best player. While Zakai Zeigler could easily be viewed as the x factor due to his crucial role in the team's success, ultimately, the Volunteers' fate hinges on Knecht's performance. He's the reason they find themselves in this position, and he must continue to be the reason they win games in this tournament.
In the opening round, Knecht displayed his talent with 23 points on 8-of-15 shooting against Saint Peters. Following that, his shooting dipped significantly to an abysmal 27 percent against Texas -- a performance that simply won't cut it if the Vols want to advance further in the tournament.
The upcoming matchup against Creighton presents a challenging test, given its array of high-caliber scorers. Yet, if Knecht can find his rhythm early on and convert quality shots, Tennessee stands a solid chance of overcoming the Bluejays and securing a spot in the Elite Eight.
Creighton - Steven Ashworth
Speaking of the Bluejays, they are back in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year following a double-overtime thriller against Oregon on Saturday. Creighton has continued to perform well in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Greg McDermott. Their strong guard play combined with the presence of big man Ryan Kalkbrenner has been a recipe for success. The main guard that may be the key to another Elite Eight appearance is Steven Ashworth.
Despite Ashworth being their fourth-leading scorer, a lot of their offensive sets run through him, given his role as the primary ball handler. He exudes a poise that you want in a point guard and has consistently shown his ability to score when necessary.
In the Oregon game, Ashworth's impact was clear as he knocked down five threes, several of which came in the overtime periods, highlighting his importance to the team when his shots are falling. With Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman already established as prolific shooters, Ashworth's presence adds another layer of potency to their offense.
Steven Ashworth hits a clutch three to give the Blue Jays the lead in overtime. 😗
(🎥: @MarchMadnessMBB )pic.twitter.com/GKsiFseNdL
— theScore (@theScore) March 24, 2024
Gonzaga - Ryan Nembhard
The Zags are back in the Sweet 16 for the ninth consecutive year. The program just continues to perform at a high level despite being in what many consider a weaker conference. The Nembhard family has played a big role in this success, with Ryan's brother Andrew leading the Zags to the National Championship in 2021. This season, the offense has revolved around Ryan, much like it did with Andrew, and he will be pivotal in determining whether they advance to the Elite Eight.
Nembhard has tallied 13 points in the first two games of the tournament, although he boasts 21 assists. However, he has to elevate his scoring significantly for Gonzaga to embark on another championship run. While his knack for facilitating and creating opportunities for his teammates is clear, Gonzaga thrives when he contributes in both scoring and facilitating. He'll need a standout game on Friday to take down top-seeded Purdue.
Duke - Jared McCain
Duke is back in the Sweet 16, marking the first time they've reached this point under head coach Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils have looked dominant in their initial two games, with McCain emerging as one of the most dynamic shooters in the country.
McCain lit up the court on Sunday night against James Madison, tallying 30 points on 8-of-11 shooting from beyond the arc. The freshman guard has continued to prove that no moment is too bright for him, and when he's scoring at this level, the Blue Devils are a scary matchup for any team.
Jared McCain is two days into the NCAA tournament and helping take Duke to the Sweet 16 😈 pic.twitter.com/dUIvxjPtIs
— ESPN (@espn) March 24, 2024
Illinois - Marcus Domask
This will be Illinois's first time in the Sweet 16 with head coach Brad Underwood. It's been a long time coming, and they're playing as well as any team in the country right now. Domask has been the key to their recent success with their offense revolving around him, despite Terrence Shannon Jr. being their primary scorer.
Domask is versatile -- he can pass, score, rebound, whatever it takes to secure the win for his team. He even achieved a triple-double in their first-round matchup with Morehead State, followed by a 22-point, seven-assist performance on Saturday against Duquesne. If he maintains this level of play and Shannon continues to score as he has been, I doubt anyone wants to face this team right now.
Alabama - Aaron Estrada
Mark Sears has been carrying Alabama lately, racking up 56 total points in its first two tournament games. The other players need to step up, and the most likely candidate to do so would be Estrada. Estrada hasn't played poorly by any means, as he has been facilitating well, scoring at a decent rate, and rebounding much better than his season average. The key to unlocking this Alabama team is finding a reliable second option, and Estrada filled that role much of the season. Hopefully, he can return to that form before it's too late.
San Diego State - Lamont Butler
The Aztecs are set to face top-seeded UConn in a championship rematch from last season. It's going to require everything they've got to take down the Huskies. Jaedon LeDee has been unstoppable to start the tournament, as he has been all season long, but strong guard play will be essential in defeating the Huskies.
Butler played an integral role in the Aztecs' success last season, and he will need to elevate his performance even further this time around. It ultimately boils down to his aggressiveness and willingness to take shots. He has only taken 15 shots in the first two games, whereas he should be taking that many in one game if they aim to surpass UConn and return to the Elite Eight.
NC State - DJ Horne
It's been the DJ Burns Jr. story to start the tournament for the Wolfpack, but the other DJ, DJ Horne, has been the key to their success all season long. Despite the offense running through Burns, strong guard play is crucial to take down a team like Marquette and make a run to the Final Four.
Horne stands out as one of the best shotmaking guards left in the tournament, and if Burns gets in foul trouble, as he has many times this season, Horne will need to shoulder the load and be the driving force that propels their team to the Elite Eight and beyond.
Clemson - PJ Hall
PJ Hall has been the Tigers' anchor all season long, yet he's only played 19 minutes in each game of the tournament so far. Foul trouble has been a constant issue, and they'll require his presence on the court if they intend to upset two-seeded Arizona on Thursday.
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