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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/18/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Baseball is back today with all 30 MLB teams in action tonight! It's been four days since we could wager on games (unless you made some HR derby bets - I did cash Cal Raleigh as the winner), and you are probably jonesing for some action as much as I am.
We return to the NRFI bets today, but with a lack of elite pitching options and several teams that have yet to name their starter, I'm going to include a few YRFIs, too, so that we have at least four games for you to target tonight.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, July 18, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 18, 2025)
- Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs: 2:20 pm
- San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals: 6:45 pm
- Athletics at Cleveland Guardians: 7:10 pm
- Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies: 8:40 pm
Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs YRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BOS: Lucas Giolito
- CHC: Colin Rea
We kick things off with a matinee at Wrigley Field, and yes, we are going with the YRFI right out of the gates.
I am well aware that Lucas Giolito has been in terrific form lately, and even Colin Rea has been pretty solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.
But neither of these pitchers is a top-end starter that we have to avoid. Giolito has been on a great run, but is still a fly-ball pitcher (37% GB%) who is HR-prone. He allowed a whopping 41 home runs in 2023 before missing all of last season due to injury, and he's yielded nine homers this season in 72 innings (about 1.0 HR/9).
This game is at the hitter-friendly confines of Wrigley, where one mistake from Giolito could end up leaving the yard, and he's set to face an incredibly powerful top-of-the-order in baseball.
If Michael Busch leads off again, then the Cubs go Busch - Kyle Tucker - Seiya Suzuki - Pete Crow-Armstrong. That's a combined 86 home runs this season!
As far as Boston goes, they will get third baseman Alex Bregman back in the two-hole, sandwiched by Jarren Duran and Roman Anthony. Rea is also a fly-ball pitcher and has surrendered 16 homers this season (1.57 HR/9).
These pitchers have combined to allow seven home runs in the first inning this season.
It's not only about home runs, but I do think that this venue, combined with two fly-ball pitchers and some pretty good hitters, could end up producing at least one run in the first frame, and we are getting excellent odds on that happening, too.
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SDP: Dylan Cease
- WAS: Michael Soroka
Dylan Cease is a much better pitcher than his ERA shows (look for a new article of mine about him and a few others here at RotoBaller). And he's been a fairly solid NRFI pitcher this season, boasting a 14-5 record as well.
Cease is facing the Washington Nationals, who rank just 24th in baseball in wRC+ vs. RHP over the last month. Two days ago happened to be the one-year anniversary of his no-hitter against the Nats last season, too.
Dylan Cease and Luis Campusano, July of last year 🥹pic.twitter.com/3IRLgcKA6F
— Padres Burner (@Padres_Burner69) July 16, 2025
The Nationals are just 2-8 on YRFIs over their last ten games. I like Cease to hold them in check today and work a scoreless first frame.
The Padres' offense also continues to struggle to strike early, sporting a 1-9 YRFI record over their last ten games. That bodes well for Michael Soroka, who owns an 11-2 NRFI record on the season. Soroka's ERA is bloated, too, but his skills suggest he should be getting better results. I'm not totally buying him over the long term, but for one inning today, I am on a Soroka shutout.
Athletics at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATH: JP Sears
- CLE: Slade Cecconi
If you have read this column before, you may remember that JP Sears is an elite NRFI artist (18-1 on the season) despite being a very average pitcher overall. He is usually pretty solid the first time through the order before getting hit harder the second and third time that he sees hitters.
I like his chances here to keep his four-game NRFI streak going. The Guardians rank 28th in wRC+ vs. LHP over the last month and have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this year.
Cleveland will counter with Slade Cecconi, who has been arguably their best starting pitcher since he entered the rotation in late May.
Slade Cecconi, 96mph Paint.
9th K and is Fired up! pic.twitter.com/nRjBGB01FE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 10, 2025
Cecconi has an 8-2 NRFI record this year and a two-game NRFI streak intact. I love his K prop today (over 5.5 strikeouts) as the Athletics have been striking out a lot against RHP, and Cecconi just happens to be coming off one of his best starts of the season as he whiffed nine Astros over seven innings last week.
Remember, this game is in Cleveland, not Sacramento, so we have to worry less about the threat of the first-inning NRFI-killing home run with the more pitcher-friendly park factor in Progressive Field.
Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies YRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIN: Chris Paddack
- COL: Kyle Freeland
This is the first time I have recommended two YRFIs in the same article! My job is to find the best options for first-inning bets, and today it seems like two of them are YRFIs.
Unlike the first game (CHC-BOS), which has some trends to support an NRFI, this game feels like a more obvious choice for a YRFI.
Anytime we are in Coors Field, we know the potential for scoring goes u,p and that's baked into these odds already (though -135 still isn't too bad).
We also have some pretty sketchy arms on the mound. Paddack and Freeland have a combined 20-16 NRFI record and have allowed seven first-inning home runs this season.
Paddack brings an ERA near 5.00 into today's game and has been victimized by the long ball fairly often (1.26 HR/9). While the Rockies are an offense we usually target with pitchers, they have been slowly trending up and are even 3-7 on YRFIs over their last ten.
The Twins are 3-7, too, and face a very hittable lefty in Freeland. With Byron Buxton leading off (who is crushing LHP), there's a very good chance that he finds his way on base to set the table for the rest of the lineup. Heck, he might just crush a homer and help us cash the bet in the first at-bat!
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Pirates (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Angels (30%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Athletics, Braves (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Angels (.385)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Angels (.469)
Conclusion
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