RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Sunday, August 30th, 2020 at 6:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/30
- Colorado Avalanche (-135) vs. Dallas Stars (+115)
- Philadelphia Flyers (+102) vs. New York Islanders (-118)
- Vegas Golden Knights (-225) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+190)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 19.5 |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 14.5 |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.75 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 9.5 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 14.75 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 14.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Colorado | 4 | 17 |
| Dallas | 9 | 7 |
| Philadelphia | 22 | 5 |
| New York | 24 | 14 |
| Vegas | 8 | 15 |
| Vancouver | 6 | 5 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,800 FD)
It really is getting old typing up Nathan MacKinnon but let's face it, he is the best player on the slate, and barring an injury, should be the highest-scoring player almost night in and night out. He has recorded 13 points in his last five games played while also notching five goals during that span. He is averaging an impressive 28 DK points per game and has been firing the puck like a mad man (25 shots on goal over his last four games). He is viable in all formats and should see extremely high ownership in cash games.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Mathew Barzal ($6,300 DK/ $6,400 FD)
- Tyler Seguin ($6,700 DK/ $7,600 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Mark Stone ($6,400 DK/ $7,300 FD)
Stone was able to notch a goal in Saturday nights win against Vancouver which came on the powerplay. While he hasn't been a big-time volume shooter, he is still a constant scoring threat that has recorded three goals in his last four games played. His linemate Max Pacioretty was not on the bench during the third period of the game last night so if Pacioretty is forced to miss some time due to injury, Vegas will need Stone to step up even more from an offensive threat standpoint.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Jamie Benn ($5,600 DK/ $7,700 FD)
- Anders Lee ($5,800 DK/ $7,000 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Shea Theodore ($6,200 DK / $6,400 FD)
One of the best defensemen in the postseason has been Theodore and he is reasonably priced on both sites. He has taken 20 shots on goals over his last four games and has recorded six points during that time span. Theodore is constantly involved on the offensive end and has notched powerplay assists in back-to-back games. From a lineup standpoint, he is fantastic for cash games since his floor is so high.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Ryan Pulock ($5,200 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Cale Makar ($6,000 DK/ $5,600 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Semyon Varlamov ($7,800 DK/ $7,800 FD)
Varlamov turned out a really strong performance Saturday night as he stopped 26 out of 27 shots while recording 20.7 DK points. Varlamov has been a beast throughout the postseason as he has racked up a .935 save percentage and a 1.69 goals allowed averaged. With the Flyers still showing their inconsistency on offense, Varlamov looks like a viable goalie pick in both cash and tournament lineups.
DFS Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Joe Pavelski ($5,200 DK/ $5,600 FD)
- Paul Stastny ($3,700 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Brock Boeser ($4,700 DK/ $5,900 FD)
- Alex Tuch ($4,200 DK/ $4,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Devon Toews ($4,300 DK/ $3,800 FD)
- Ian Cole ($3,400 DK/ $3,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Anton Khudobin ($7,600 DK/ $7,500 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
The first game of this three-game slate is a game stack worthy candidate based on the high scores of the first three games of this series. So far, the Avs and Stars have combined for 25 goals scored and it doesn't seem like they will be slowing down anytime soon. Both teams have generated over 30 high danger scoring chances throughout the series so far with the Avalanche having four more scoring chances and a better corsi number. Both top lines will be popular choices in tournaments but one way to get different is by looking at their second lines. Both the Pavelski line for Dallas and the Kadri line for Colorado generated positive corsi numbers and multiple scoring chances throughout game 3.
The Flyers and Islanders are on the end of a back-to-back so there could be some fatigue that plays into this game. New York had a strong offensive showing as they doubled the high danger opportunities that the Flyers had at even strength play. The Barzal line for the Islanders posted a 63.64 corsi and had three high-danger opportunities throughout the game. The real surprise was how well the third line played as the JGP line racked up 11 scoring chances with four high-danger opportunities. If you are looking for a lower owned value stack, the Pageau line is one to target.
The nightcap game is also on the end of a back-to-back with Vegas carrying the largest Vegas total on the entire slate. Robin Lehner pitched a shutout while Vegas was able to get goal-scoring contributions from all over their roster. While the Golden Knights only had two more scoring chances than Vancouver, they almost doubled their high-danger opportunities (11 to 6). The top three lines for Vegas all played well with their top line generating the most scoring chances (six) but their second line posting a strong 76 corsi. Another value line to consider on this slate is their third line as they had four scoring chances and actually notching a goal as well. If you're wanting to be contrarian and go against the chalk, the best line for Vancouver was the Pettersson line as they had three total scoring opportunities.
Top Stacks (In order):
- VGK1- Pacioretty, Karlsson, Stone
- COL1- Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen
- DAL1- Benn, Seguin, Radulov
- NYI1- Lee, Barzal, Eberle
- VGK2- Marchessault, Stastny, Smith
- VAN2- Pearson, Pettersson, Toffoli
Value Stacks:
- VGK3- Cousins, Roy, Tuch
- DAL2- Janmark, Pavelski, Gurianov
- NYI3- Brassard, Pageau, Komarov
- COL2- Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichushkin
