NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/5): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

March 5, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 5th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Friday, March 5th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/5

• • Washington Capitals vs. Boston Bruins (-140) - 6O
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-200) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 6.5U
  • St. Louis Blues (-130) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5U
  • Anaheim Ducks vs. Colorado Avalanche (-245) - 5.5U
  • Minnesota Wild (-140) vs. Arizona Coyotes - 5.5U
  • Vegas Golden Knights (-210) vs. San Jose Sharks - 6O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($8,900 DK / $8,300 FD) - The status of MacKinnon is up in the air as he is dealing with a head injury but if he is healthy and good to go, it is hard to not consider rostering him. MacKinnon has 22 points in 19 games this season and is currently riding a four-game point streak.
• Anze Kopitar, LAK ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD) - Kopitar is a great mid-range play on both sites for this six-game slate. He has registered 24 points in 21 games played and has done well against the Blues as he has a goal and three assists in four games played so far this season.
• Eriksson Ek, MIN ($4,500 DK / $4,700 FD) - Eriksson Ek is a taented young center and has been seeing time up on the top line for the Wild. Eriksson Ek has recorded two goals over his last four games played and is coming off of a monster peripheral game where he recorded five shots on goal and four blocked shots.

Other centers to consider: Bergeron, Point, Kadri, Karlsson, Schmaltz, Stephenson, Gourde, Vilardi, Rask

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, BOS ($9,100 DK / $8,400 FD) - Pastrnak is definitely more of a value on FD when compared to DK but is viable on both sites all in all formats. He has five points over his last three games played and has registered three goals and an assist against the Caps this year in three games played.
• Mark Stone, VGK ($5,700 DK / $7,400 FD) - Before hitting the month of March, Mark Stone was in a bit of a slump as he only had one point in the final two weeks in the month of February. Since the beginning of March, Stone has recorded seven points in just two games with six of those being assists.
• Marcus Foligno, MIN ($3,200 DK / $3,600 FD) - Foligno has been on a little bit of a hot streak lately for the Wild. In his last six games played,  Foligno has produced double-digit DK points in four of those games and has totaled eight points during that six-game stretch.

Other wings to consider: Kane, Rantanen, Pacioretty, Marchand, Stamkos, Landeskog, Fiala, Brown, Zuccarello, Keller, Kaprizov, Carter, Coleman, Oshie, Silfverberg, Greenway, Parise, Smith, Donskoi

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Victor Hedman, TBL ($6,900 DK / $6,800 FD) - Hedman carries one of the best floors of all NHL defenseman and he is on a point per game pace which is always great to see. He has recorded an assist in three of his last four games and is averaging over three peripheral stats over that same four-game stretch.
• Samuel Girard, COL ($4,900 DK / $5,300 FD) - Makar is out for several weeks which only benefits Samuel Girard. Girard has been bumped up to the top line and top power-play line which means he will be skating with the likes of MacKinnon and Rantanen. Girard has seen 24 minutes of ice time in five straight games and has scored a point in three straight games so the floor for Girard over the next couple of weeks should be relatively high for the talent that he will be skating with.
• Erik Karlsson, SJS ($3,700 DK / $4,500 FD) - While Karlsson hasn't been producing as he has in prior years, the pricing on both sites is just too good to not consider him. Over his last three games, Karlsson has averaged four peripheral stats per game while also recording a goal that ended a 13 game goalless streak.

Other defensemen to consider: Burns, Carlson, Chychrun, Theodore, Doughty, Toews, Faulk, Karlsson, Suter, Chara

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD) - The Avs are the heaviest favorites on the slate and there is a lot to like if considering rostering Grubauer if he gets the nod in the net for Colorado against Anaheim. Grubauer is 11-6 on the season with a 2.07 goals allowed average and a .920 save percentage. Grubauer carries some solid upside as he has recorded three shutouts on the season and is 1-1 so far this year against the Ducks.
• Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,200 DK / $8,300 FD) - Fleury might be the hottest goalie in the entire league right now as he has won four straight games and carries a record of 11-3 on the season. He has recorded three shutouts and has a 1.71 goals allowed average and a .939 save percentage which only shows how dominant he has been throughout 14 starts. Fleury has only faced the Sharks in one game this year and in that game, he stopped 24 of 25 shots and recorded a win.
• Jonathan Quick, LAK ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD) - If you're looking for a value goalie on this slate, Jonathan Quick could be an option. Quick has actually played well this season as he is 5-4-2 on the season with a 2.87 goals allowed average and a .900 save percentage. He has been extremely successful against the Blues as he is 2-0 against them while also recording a shutout in his most recent outing against them.

Other goalies to consider: Talbot

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• BOS 1
  • Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, d-men add on)
    • With Boston being the home team, their top line really benefits as they will be placed in the best matchup possible against Washington. In their last game against the Caps, the top line for Boston matched up with the Ovechkin line for a good chunk of time at even strength and was able to record a goal against this Caps line. On the season, the Bergeron line has sported a 71.64 corsi for in 35 minutes of ice time against Washington. They are also sporting a 2.74 expected goals for rate while generating 30.21 scoring chances for and 13.43 high danger chances for in that same 35-minute span. They are an expensive stack but that price point could scare people away from rostering them which means they could see lower ownership.
• VGK 1
  • Pacioretty/ Stephenson/ Stone (Theodore, d-men add-on) 
    • Vegas is a massive road favorite against San Jose and it's hard to not gravitate towards their top reunited line of Stone, Stephenson, and Pacioretty. This line has skated together for over 180 minutes of ice time this season and is sporting a 2.68 expected goals for per 60 minutes while generating 31.63 scoring chances for and 11.2 high danger chances for per 60 minutes.  When this Vegas line faced the Sharks in mid-February, they accrued a 73.33 corsi for rate while generating five scoring chances and two high danger opportunities in just 11 minutes of ice time. Stone and Pacioretty skate on the top power-play unit for Vegas and make for a strong mini-stake if you're looking for a fully correlated mini stack from this team.
• LAK 1 
  • Iafallo/ Kopitar/ Brown (Doughty, d-men add on)
    • The Kings top line could go overlooked in this spot against the Blues but I think this could be a sneaky spot to consider, especially if you're looking for a mid-priced three-man stack on this slate. In 27 minutes of ice time together against St. Louis, this line is carrying a 2.56 expected goals for rate while generating 33.07 scoring chances for and 13.23 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. This line has accrued three goals at even strength against the Blues and has generated 15 total scoring chances through their first four games against them. All three skaters skate together at even strength and on the top power-play unit so they remain fully correlated when on the ice.

Other Stacks to consider: CHI 1, COL 2, MIN 2, CHI 2, VGK 2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C:  Kopitar (1.2X), Point (1.2X), Bergeron (1.25X), Kadri (1.55X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Pacioretty (1.3X), Stone (1.4X), Marchand (1.45), Rantanen (1.6X)

D: Hedman (1X), Theodore (1.25X), Girard (1.75), Doughty (1.8X)

G: Grubauer (1.2X), Quick (1.4X), Fleury (1.4X),

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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