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The Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, and Rams are all on bye this week, creating a headache for fantasy managers scrambling to find replacements for their best players. That's a lot of star power on the shelf. Thankfully, for Pick 'Em leagues, we don't have to worry about individual players as much. Some of the rest of the best teams have cupcake matchups in Week 10.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
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Week 10 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 14 - Dallas vs. New York Giants
- 13 - Buffalo vs. Denver
- 12 - Seattle vs. Washington
- 11 - Cincinnati vs. Houston
Have you seen the Giants' offense lately? Do I need to say anything more about why Dallas will run away with that victory? The Cowboys are over two-touchdown favorites.
The Broncos were playing better heading into their bye week but not good enough to walk into Buffalo and win a primetime game over Josh Allen. Seattle looked awful against Baltimore but has enough talent on their roster and returns home to host a mediocre Washington team. The Bengals are looking like one of the best teams in the NFL once again and will take care of an upstart Houston team at home.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 10 Pick 'Em Pools
10 - Baltimore vs. Cleveland
The Baltimore Ravens are quietly, possibly the best team in football. In their last two home games, the defense has held two potent offenses (Detroit and Seattle) to a combined nine points while dropping 75 of their own. They are winners of four straight and get to host the Browns, who they beat 28-3 in Cleveland earlier this season.
Deshaun Watson wasn't fantastic in his return to the Browns' lineup against Arizona but he didn't need to do much of anything to win. Cleveland's defense was gifted a fifth-round rookie quarterback making his first start, and they naturally feasted. Clayton Tune threw for a whopping 58 yards, got sacked seven times, and tossed two interceptions. Lamar Jackson won't show that kind of ineptitude in Week 10.
9 - Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay
The Pittsburgh Steelers, unlike their division rival Baltimore, are not one of the best teams in football. Still, they only have three losses (one more than the Ravens) and just keep finding ways to win. Heading into Week 10, Pittsburgh has a -30 point differential. The only other team at least two games over .500 with a negative point differential is Seattle at -2. Losing to the Ravens by 34 will do that to a team.
Back to Pittsburgh. They are in the bottom ten in rushing and passing yards on both sides of the football. Kenny Pickett hasn't improved from his rookie season, which is leading to just 16.6 points per game.
The ground may eventually fall out from beneath them but it won't be while they're hosting Green Bay. Aaron Jones getting healthier is propelling the Packers' offense from unsatisfactory to middling. They finally scored a touchdown in the first half for the first time since Week 2. Beating the Packers without Matthew Stafford at home doesn't move the needle.
8 - Detroit at Los Angeles Chargers
With Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen leading their teams, there's perennial excitement about the AFC playoffs.
The NFC playoffs could be even more fun this year. The Lions are in the same conversation as the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers, although they'll need to continue to prove themselves as contenders. Being road favorites against a solid Chargers team is a good start.
| AFC | NFC | |
| North | Baltimore, 7-2 | Detroit, 6-2 |
| East | Miami, 6-3 | Philadelphia, 8-1 |
| West | Kansas City, 7-2 | San Francisco, 5-3 |
| South | Jacksonville, 6-2 | New Orleans, 5-4 |
Los Angeles can beat bad teams but is still seeking a win over the NFL's top-tier teams. The Dolphins, Cowboys, and Chiefs all took care of the Chargers, putting coach Brandon Staley on the hot seat. The secondary still allows nearly 300 yards passing per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta will tear apart the Los Angeles defense.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 10
7 - Chicago vs. Carolina
Chicago will win this game regardless of what the scoreboard reads at 0:00. If they win, they secure a much-needed victory and keep Carolina, whose first-round pick they own, buried in the standings. If they lose, they'll continue to remain at the top of the 2024 NFL draft board with their own selection.
The Bears may be bad but the Panthers are dreadful. The investment in running back Miles Sanders has been a complete waste of money. Chuba Hubbard has surpassed him on the depth chart but can't muster four yards per carry. It's too difficult to determine if Bryce Young is the franchise quarterback when his top receiving options are the ghost of Adam Thielen, journeyman tight end Hayden Hurst, and another tight end named Stephen Sullivan, who we all definitely knew existed before Week 9.
The Carolina defense can't stop anyone either. Justin Fields is likely to make his return to the football field for this Thursday Night Football matchup, which will help the Bears' offense regain their form.
6 - Indianapolis at New England (in Germany)
If you live on the West Coast and hate waking up at 6:30 in the morning to watch football, there's great news. This is the final matchup of the NFL's International Series.
Jonathan Taylor has reclaimed his majority stake in the Colts' backfield and Indianapolis rode him and slot cornerback Kenny Moore II to a road victory over the Panthers. The defense had been atrocious in the last three weeks but did enough to bait rookie quarterback Bryce Young into a number of bad throws.
There's another quarterback up on their schedule who also tends to make poor decisions in the pocket. And just like Young, Mac Jones doesn't have any top-end receivers to target when a play needs to be made. Sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas led the way with 55 yards against the Commanders' secondary, which ranks among the worst pass defenses in the league. If the Patriots can't successfully attack the Colts' secondary, then they will be returning to the United States with a 2-8 record.
5 - Atlanta at Arizona
This week, we'll find out if the quarterback is the lone problem for the Arizona Cardinals or if they have massive holes up and down the roster. (Spoiler alert: it's the latter.) Kyler Murray will be activated off of the PUP list for Week 10 (he has to, otherwise he will be out for the remainder of the season) and will get the start. James Conner is also eligible to return, although it's unclear right now if that will be the case.
For Atlanta, a new quarterback brought the same offensive woes. A pair of turnovers on the first play of back-to-back drives late in the third quarter allowed Minnesota to tie the game, and then take the lead. Taylor Heinicke did lead the Falcons to what they hoped was a game-winning touchdown with just over two minutes remaining, but that entire drive outside of the first snap was running plays. The quarterback, once again, did not make a difference.
Still, the Falcons are a better team in the grand scheme of things, even though neither of these birds should be playoff-bound.
4 - New Orleans at Minnesota
The legend of Joshua Dobbs grows. On his fourth team in this calendar year, the veteran entered the game for an injured Jaren Hall and led the Minnesota Vikings to a road victory over Atlanta. He became a member of the team on Tuesday.
Dobbs was brought in to command this team for the foreseeable future and brings a new dynamic to the offense. He dashed for 66 yards against Atlanta but the Falcons did not game plan for that. He said following the game they weren't spying at all, allowing him to improvise with his legs.
The Saints, with game tape and a week to prepare for who they know will be on the field, won't make that same mistake. The duo of Derek Carr and Taysom Hill is leading this offense with an efficiency that wasn't there at the beginning of the season. Their defense forced the Bears into five turnovers. I like the Saints as road favorites.
3 - New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
The vibes in Las Vegas are immaculate after the team ditched coach Josh McDaniels and let Antonio Pierce take over. Team leaders Josh Jacobs, Maxx Crosby, and Davante Adams made it clear that the team loves playing for Pierce.
Celebrating a win like that is fun! But it's not like they took down the Chiefs, Ravens, or Eagles. They hosted a Giants team that was forced to play an undrafted, third-string quarterback for the majority of the game.
A coaching swap doesn't change the fact that this roster is still average at best. The Jets' defense will make the game exponentially more difficult for rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell.
Remember when Jeff Saturday was given the interim coaching job for the Colts last season? He also won his first game before losing every other contest (including the biggest blown lead in NFL history).
2 - Tennessee at Tampa Bay
The Will Levis era is officially here. It's all but a guarantee that the rookie has secured the starting job for the rest of the season, even when Ryan Tannehill's ankle heals. Levis has one turnover in his two starts and that came when he was forcing the ball into tight windows as he tried to lead a game-winning drive against Pittsburgh.
The second-round pick is connecting on medium-to-long throws with ease. In Week 10, he gets to face the Tampa Bay secondary that got burnt over and over again by another rookie, C.J. Stroud. While it's ridiculous to expect Levis to match the 470 yards and five touchdowns that Stroud put up, the matchup is great for what Levis likes to do.
Both teams are 3-5 and starting to see their season slip away, but the Titans have a renewed energy with Levis under center. Baker Mayfield and a struggling pass defense aren't sparking a lot of optimism in West Florida.
1 - San Francisco at Jacksonville
Both the 49ers and the Jaguars are coming out of their bye weeks feeling very different about their season so far. San Francisco appeared to be the best team in the NFL through five weeks and then went and dropped three straight to (mostly) inferior opponents. The Jaguars have done the opposite. Trevor Lawrence and Co. started slow (1-2) but they've since ripped off five straight wins.
Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy are desperately hoping reinforcements return for Week 10. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) told reporters he's ready to go. Maybe more importantly, All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams (ankle) could also reenter the starting lineup.
With those two back in the fold, expect the 49ers to top the 17 points they've scored in each of their three losses.
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