NFL Pick 'Em: Player Prop Picks for No House Advantage - Early Slate (Week 13)

December 4, 2022

Jorden Hill's NFL DFS prop picks for No House Advantage Pick 'Em contests and the Week 13 early slate. Use his NFL prop picks to win money.

Week 13 has the potential to be one of the most electrifying weeks of the 2022 season with a lot of divisional showdowns and projected high-scoring matchups. With a slate this action-packed, there's no better way to get in on the fun than by joining some player prop contests over on our friends at No House Advantage!

This week, there are 10 different Pick 'Em contests you can enter to compete with other players for a chance to win cash prizes. Some focus on just the early game slate, but there are also contests for the afternoon slate and single-game showdown tournaments for Sunday night and Monday night. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry but feature prize pools worth as much as $30,000.

Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct.

We'll get into some of my favorite props for the early slate Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.

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How to Play on No House Advantage

The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.

For example, if you feel that A.J. Brown hauling in six receptions against his former team is a lock, you would choose Brown's over 5.5 receptions prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.

Once all of Sunday's early games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.

Higher Confidence Picks - Week 13 Early Slate

Garrett Wilson (vs MIN) over 58.5 receiving yards

Jets first-round selection Garrett Wilson had an excellent start to his rookie campaign but posted a few subpar performances with Zach Wilson at the helm. Fortunately, Mike White took over in Week 12, and the passing attack immediately reaped the benefits.

Wilson finished with 95 receiving yards last week and this bounce-back was far from a fluke. In four weeks without Zach Wilson at quarterback, Garrett Wilson has averaged 77 yards per game and eclipsed the 58.5 line in three of them. For reference, he averaged under 40 yards per contest in eight games with Zach Wilson.

Furthermore, this is a perfect spot for Wilson to explode for one of the best showings of his young career. Minnesota is surrendering the most passing yards in the league and allowed five Patriots offensive weapons to reach 59 or more receiving yards last week on Thanksgiving Day.

Ryan Tannehill (vs PHI) under 239.5 passing yards

I'll start by acknowledging that Tannehill has surpassed 250 yards in three consecutive weeks, but this streak seems likely to end on Sunday.

The Eagles boast one of the best defensive units in the NFL and are particularly stingy against the pass. Opponents average just 183.6 passing yards per game against Philadelphia, which is the second-lowest number in the league.

Their run defense has been a bit more vulnerable as of late, so don't be surprised if the Titans' offense becomes the Derrick Henry show on Sunday. Given how poorly Tennessee has defended the pass this year, the team will likely try to avoid getting in a shootout with a 10-1 juggernaut.

Before Week 10, Tannehill had finished his last three games with fewer than 200 passing yards, so this line feels a bit inflated due to his recent output. On many sportsbooks, Tannehill's passing yards prop is somewhere between 203.5 to 206.5 yards. This gives us quite the edge on No House Advantage with a line over 30 yards higher.

Russell Wilson (vs BAL) under 1.5 passing touchdowns

In case you weren't aware, the Broncos' offense is terrible. Denver averages just over 14 points per game, thanks largely in part to the play of Russell Wilson.

Wilson has thrown for two touchdowns in a game just once this season and failed to find the end zone in three separate contests. The matchup also isn't ideal, as the Ravens have allowed only three quarterbacks this season to throw for two or more touchdowns. This contest has the lowest-projected point total of the week, so don't expect fireworks in Baltimore.

Both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are currently listed as questionable, but there is optimism that Sutton suits up. Still, the thought of Wilson possibly being without his two top weapons makes an ugly game even uglier. Even if Jeudy can play for the first time since going down in Week 10, it will not change the outlook for Denver's offense as it was just as bad earlier in the season at full strength.

Lower Confidence Picks - Week 13 Early Slate

Nick Chubb (vs HOU) over 94.5 rushing yards

This is a lower-confidence pick because 94.5 yards is a high line for anyone, but we all know Nick Chubb can get it done. The fifth-year back has surpassed 100 rushing yards in six different performances this season, with some of them coming in tough matchups. Houston is quite the opposite of a tough matchup.

The Texans are allowing 168.6 rushing yards on 34.4 attempts per contest. Both of these numbers are league highs. Because Houston only slightly outscores the aforementioned Broncos on a weekly basis, its opponents are able to abandon the pass and run out the clock without much stress.

Deshaun Watson will be making his regular-season debut on Sunday, and of course, the narrative of him returning to Houston makes this an interesting face-off. We saw Watson look pretty rusty in the preseason, though, and the crowd is sure to make the environment as unpleasant as it possibly can for its former signal-caller.

As eager as Watson probably is to put up points on his former team, the Browns know they can win this game by playing it safe and feeding their star running back. Chubb should easily surpass 20 carries on Sunday, and there's no reason to believe he can't average upwards of five yards per tote against the NFL's worst run defense.

Aaron Rodgers (vs CHI) under 251.5 passing yards

Yes, Aaron Rodgers has made it known throughout his career that he "owns" the Chicago Bears. There's definitely a chance he goes off on his division rival again, but a few things are working against him.

For one, Rodgers is averaging just 223.5 passing yards per game this year and has fallen short of 250 yards in all but three contests. He even failed to reach this mark at home against the Bears back in Week 2. The Packers will now travel to Chicago for Week 13, where the Bears have surrendered just over 200 passing yards per game in 2022.

Although he is going to play through any pain, Rodgers is notably dealing with rib and thumb injuries. If he feels limited in any capacity, Green Bay should be able to lean on the running game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as the Bears' defense ranks bottom-six against the run this season.

This game is a must-win for the Packers and there could be a fair amount of points scored. Many sportsbooks have Rodgers' passing yards prop sitting around 230, though, so this line sticks out as a little high in what could be a run-centric affair for both teams.

Saquon Barkley (vs WAS) under 76.5 rushing yards

This is a fair line for Saquon Barkley, who has posted 77 or more rushing yards six times this year. Barkley is one of the best backs in the league and is the clear focal point of an otherwise banged-up Giants offense. In each of the past two weeks, though, Barkley failed to eclipse 40 rushing yards or 3.6 yards per carry.

The 25-year-old has remained healthy all season long and should still be in line for plenty of opportunities down the stretch. His recent struggles could be attributed to defenses frequently stacking the box against a New York offense that lacks threats in the receiving game. Washington could look to do the same this week, which introduces further concerns for Barkley's outlook.

The Commanders' defense ranks top-10 against the run this season and has only allowed two players to surpass 77 rushing yards. Further, only one of these players was a running back in Derrick Henry, as the other was QB Justin Fields.

I only don't have extreme confidence in this selection because, again, Barkley is such a talented player and the team has a little-to-no choice but to lean on him to stay competitive. But the odds are obviously stacked against him to bounce back in this spot.

Week 13 Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry

Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Week 13 early slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.

You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!

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