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Does anyone else wish we could pretend like Week 7 didn't exist? I am not too proud to admit that I whiffed in a big way on that slate. A few obvious things happened (Mahomes and Kelce dominating) but a lot of weird and stupid stuff did as well. Some chalk busted (remind me to never use Josh Jacobs ever again) while some unlikely heroes emerged (D'Onta Foreman among others). The best part of playing DFS is that win or lose, you get to move on to the next slate rather quickly and that's exactly what I do with this article every week!
This year, I started a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday afternoon (once all the stats and rankings from Monday night's game are processed). This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 29. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
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Week 8 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate.
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 8: Main Slate Only
- Dolphins- 28.5
- Chiefs - 26.5
- Ravens - 26.25
- Cowboys - 26
- Niners - 25.75
- Eagles - 25
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through Seven Games: Points Per Game
- Dolphins - 34.3
- Niners - 28.7
- Eagles - 26.6
- Cowboys - 25.7
- Chiefs/Colts - 25.4
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through Seven Games: Points Allowed Per Game (Avoid)
- Ravens - 13.9
- Chiefs - 15.0
- Niners - 15.6
- Cowboys - 16.7
- Saints - 17.3
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through Seven Games
- Dolphins - 462.3
- Chiefs - 396.7
- Eagles - 389.3
- Rams - 365.1
- Niners - 364.7
Struggling Defenses: Most Total Yards Allowed Through Seven Games
- Broncos - 424.7
- Steelers - 383.5
- Commanders - 374.1
- Cardinals - 368.3
- Bengals - 355.8
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Week 8 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Chiefs (4) @ Broncos (32)
- Dolphins (3) vs. Pats (23)
- Ravens (8) @ Cardinals (31)
- Niners (1) @ Bengals (11)
- Texans (5) @ Panthers (18)
Mahomes had six seconds to throw - Trey Smith ragdollin' pic.twitter.com/w7M65qoaPl
— 📽️ Red Tribe Cinema (@ClayWendler) October 23, 2023
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Ravens (2) @ Cardinals (29)
- Niners (4) @ Bengals (26)
- Eagles (3) @ Commanders (14)
- Dolphins (1) vs. Pats (9)
- Jags (15) @ Steelers (19)
Another new look on Gus Edwards' TD run with Ronnie Stanley lined up basically in the slot.
Heck of a block by Isaiah Likely too on big rookie LB Jack Campbell. pic.twitter.com/lSOUdOZ5qx
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 24, 2023
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Commanders (Hurts), Broncos (Mahomes), Cardinals (Jackson), Dolphins (Jones), Jags (Pickett)
RB - Panthers (Singletary/Pierce), Packers (Mattison), Cardinals (Edwards), Colts (Kamara), Giants (Hall)
WR - Steelers (Ridley), Eagles (McLaurin), Seahawks (Cooper), Commanders (Brown), Cardinals (Flowers)
TE - Jets (Waller), Jags (Heyward), Texans (Hurst), Bengals (Kittle), Rams (Ferguson)
DEF - Giants (NYJ), Commanders (PHI), Pats (MIA), Browns (SEA), Falcons (TEN)
Week 8 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
Every week pricing gets TIGHTER and we feel the squeeze. This makes punt plays more appealing and the idea of a cheap stack incredibly appealing as we try to fit the high-priced smash plays around it.
- Minshew - Downs (10.2k) - Minshew over 300 yards in last two games, Downs season-high 5-125-1 last week vs. Cleveland.
- Taylor - Waller (10.5k) - Taylor could start again, and hit Waller for a season-high 7-98-1 last week vs. Washington.
- Ridder - London (10.2k) - London 6+ catches in three straight, ATL facing pass-funnel TEN defense.
- Pickett - Pickens (10.5k) - Pickett coming off his best game this season, Pickens had 5-107 for his third 100+ yard game this year.
- Howell-McLaurin (10.5k) - McLaurin's best game this season came vs. Philly earlier this season, WAS will have to air it out again.
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Jalen Hurts - expected to play, Kyler Murray - OUT, Deshaun Watson - VERY questionable, Daniel Jones - questionable, Ryan Tannehill - unlikely to play
RB: Saquon Barkley - expected to play, Bijan Robinson - expected to return to normal role, Jerome Ford - doubtful, Miles Sanders - questionable
WR: DK Metcalf - questionable, Deebo Samuel - OUT, Christian Watson - questionable, Tank Dell - expected to play, Treylon Burks - questionable, Zay Jones - questionable
TE: Luke Musgrave - questionable, Kylen Granson - questionable, Juwan Johnson - expected to play
Week 8 Interesting Stats
- A.J. Brown led all receivers last week with a 50% target share of his team's targets. He now has 100+ yards in five straight games. His best game of the season so far was against the Commanders when he went 9-175-2 against them in Week 4.
- Alvin Kamara had more touches in Week 7 than any other running back with 29 (17 rushes, 12 receptions). He already has been targeted 39 times in his first four games back as Derek Carr is addicted to checking the ball down.
- Alexander Mattison has 11 rushing attempts inside the red zone (7 of those inside the 10, 5 of those inside 5) and still no rushing touchdowns this season. He played pretty poorly again last night, is the week we see Cam Akers start to take over? Akers out-touched Mattison 12-10 against the Niners.
- Travis Etienne Jr. leads all running backs with 16 broken tackles this season. He's sitting at 451 yards rushing (6th most in the NFL) through his first seven games as the Jags head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. He has two touchdown runs in each of his last three games.
- JaMarr Chase has been targeted 73 times this season, which is the most in the NFL despite the Bengals playing one fewer games than most teams (had a bye last week).
Alright, that's it for my Week 8 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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