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Welcome to the Week 14 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 14 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN vs. DET | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $24
Bridgewater struggled in his most recent contest against the Chiefs, but the veteran has been a very good performer at home this season and has exploited favorable matchups such as the one against the Lions. Detroit checks in allowing 249.8 passing yards per game, along with an NFC-high 12.0 yards per completion. The Lions are also tied with multiple teams for the second-highest explosive pass play rate allowed (11%), while Bridgewater is averaging the second-highest average yards per attempt of his career (7.3) and has completed 30 passes of 20 or more yards, including five over 40.
Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs. DAL | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $28
Washington heads into this NFC East battle on a four-game win streak, and Heinicke has been far from a passive observer in that success. The emerging signal-caller has done a particularly good job with ball security in those contests, forging a 7:2 TD:INT while also completing an elite 77.3 percent of his passes. Dallas comes in allowing 263.3 passing yards per contest, and the Cowboys are also giving up the third-highest yards per completion (11.7). It's also worth noting Heinicke has supplemented his fantasy production this season with some solid work on the ground (289 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per rush), while the Cowboys have given up 4.5 yards per carry and four rushing TDs to QBs.
ALSO CONSIDER: Taysom Hill, NO at NYJ | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $28
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. DAL | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $26
Speaking of Washington's success, Gibson has proven he can handle a legitimate lead-back workload over the last four games, logging between 19 and 29 carries in those contests. The second-year back has accumulated 430 total yards and three total touchdowns in that span, and he now faces a Cowboys defense that checks in allowing 140.7 rushing yards over the last three contests, the seventh-highest figure in the league in that sample. Additionally, Dallas ranks No. 21 in explosive rush play rate allowed on the season (12%) and gives up an elevated 4.8 yards per carry on the road, furthering Gibson's prospects at what are still reasonable salaries relative to expected volume, especially if backfield mate J.D. McKissic (concussion) misses another contest.
Javonte Williams, DEN vs. DET | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $26
Williams shined in his first opportunity as a lead back in Week 13 against the Chiefs, finishing with 178 total yards from scrimmage, which was particularly impressive when considering the Broncos sustained a 22-9 loss in the contest. Melvin Gordon may be able to make it back from his one-game absence due to a hip injury Sunday, but even if he does suit up, Williams makes for a very appealing candidate to deploy against a Lions defense surrendering 130.0 rushing yards per road game. Detroit has also yielded an 83.7 percent catch rate to RBs, which further brightens Williams' outlook when considering his significant pass-catching prowess.
ALSO CONSIDER: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC vs. LVR | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Hunter Renfrow, LVR at KC | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $18
Renfrow continued to excel as the Raiders' de facto No. 1 wideout in Week 13, posting a 9-102 line on 10 targets versus Washington a week after furnishing an 8-134 tally on nine targets versus the Cowboys. The third-year wideout also posted a solid 7-46-1 line against the Chiefs in Week 7, and Kansas City has given up 252.5 passing yards per contest, along with 11.3 yards per completion at home. Renfrow will also be taking the field without Darren Waller (knee) again in Week 14, and the Chiefs, while having been above average at limiting WR production, have surrendered 12 of the 19 passing TDs they've conceded in the three short passing windows, an area of the field where Renfrow has logged 82 of his 92 targets and 67 of his 73 catches.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF at CIN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $18
Aiyuk underwhelmed against the Seahawks in Week 13 with Deebo Samuel out of action with a groin injury, generating a 3-55 line on six targets. However, the fact Samuel could be out again Sunday and Aiyuk is coming off a pedestrian performance could certainly make him a valuable tournament play if he bounces back against a Bengals defense that's given up its fair share of yardage through the air. Cincinnati comes in allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game of any team on its home field (268.8), along with an elevated 11.1 yards per completion in that split. Cincy also ranks in the bottom half of the league in explosive pass play rate allowed (11%), and Aiyuk has also been most effective in the short middle and short right passing windows (23-301-3 line), areas of the field where the Bengals have allowed 1,541 yards in completions and eight touchdowns.
Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. NO | DK: $4,700, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $16
Crowder continues to build solid rapport with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, posting a solid 4-62 line on six targets in Week 13 against the Eagles. The veteran slot man has logged at least five targets in eight of nine games, and at least six in seven of those. The Saints' secondary has been prone to some leaks this season and check into this Week 14 interconference clash allowing 250.1 passing yards per game, along with the sixth-highest average yards per completion (11.2). New Orleans has also conceded a total of 11 touchdowns in the three short passing windows, areas of the field where Crowder does the majority of his work (30 of 56 targets).
ALSO CONSIDER: Jalen Guyton, LAC vs. NYG | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $10
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dawson Knox, BUF at TB | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $19
Knox makes for some cost-effective, fairly high-upside exposure to the Bills-Buccaneers showdown, with the athletic tight end likely to be looked at a good bit in a game during which Josh Allen and the passing game should be heavily featured. The Bucs are facing an NFL-high 71.8 percent pass play percentage at home thanks to their elite run defense, and they've been generous to tight ends while allowing a 75-700-5 line to the position. Knox's target share has fluctuated this season, but considering Tampa Bay has faced the fifth-most tight end targets in the league, he could be in for a busy day and needs a just a couple of chunk plays to start delivering a solid return on his modest salaries.
Evan Engram, NYG at LAC | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $15
Engram has undeniably frustrated DFS players throughout the campaign with some pedestrian totals, but his salaries are down to a point where he carries minimal risk and still offers a solid ceiling for a tight end. Engram is also coming off a solid four-catch, 61-yard performance against the Dolphins in Week 13, and he's now facing a Chargers defense that's yielded an NFL-high 10 touchdown receptions to tight ends, along with a 61-670 tally. The Giants will continue to be without Kadarius Toney (oblique) for Sunday's game and could also be down both Kenny Golladay (ribs) and Sterling Shepard (quadriceps), which would naturally open up even more opportunity for Engram in a favorable matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Dalton Schultz, DAL at WAS | DK: $5,400, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $18
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