NFL DFS: First Look of Week 9 - Totals, Salaries, Slates, and more

October 29, 2024

Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 9 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

A Hail Mary and impressive rookie quarterback play is what defined Week 8. We close that chapter and move on to Week 9 with hopes of more fireworks. We are going to get a jump start on the action and see where the data pulls us. Let us not waste any more time and break the action down.

This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 3rd. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.

Week 9 Vegas Totals and Team Data

In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 9, we will include some data from last season as well.

You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 8: Main Slate Only

1. Bills- 28
2. Falcons, Ravens- 27
3. Eagles - 26.5
4. Bengals - 26
5. Saints - 25.75

2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game

1. Lions- 33.4
2. Ravens - 30.3
3. Redskins - 29.5
4. Bills - 28.8
5. Packers - 27

2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game

1. Chargers - 13
2. Broncos - 15
3. Bears - 17
4. Bills - 18.3
5. Eagles - 18.9

The Detroit Lions have been dominating defenses, averaging 33.4 points per game. Surprisingly, they don't hold the highest implied team total on the slate. The Buffalo Bills do. They will be hosting the Miami Dolphins who are finally healthy.

Tua Tagovailoa looked like he hasn't missed any game this season and should push Josh Allen to go drive-to-drive. The Bills' defense should be able to slow him down as they are holding offenses to 18.3 points per game.

One other defense to watch is the Philadelphia Eagles defense. They are holding teams to 18.9 points per game and are allowing their offense to stay on track.

This view of Cooper DeJean's game-changing 4th down stop shows how well he did to match the fake return motion by Ja'Marr Chase. pic.twitter.com/v9K55MSWLm

— Eagles Eric (@EaglesXsandOs) October 28, 2024

Week 9 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the data that we have so far for the 2024 season.

Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses

(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)

1. Seattle (1) vs. L.A. Rams (16)
2. Dallas (3) vs. Atlanta (18)
3. Atlanta (6) vs. Dallas (21)
4. Green Bay (9) vs. Detroit (27)
5. Detroit (11) vs. Atlanta (19)

We get a huge divisional matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. In a very close race in the NFC West, Seattle will be hoping to out-score a fully healthy Rams offense. They did take a huge loss in Week 8 against the Buffalo Bills while the Rams upset the Minnesota Vikings.

Kirk Cousins continues to find ways to score and showcased Kyle Pitts (finally, the ceiling we've been wanting) in Week 8. Darnell Mooney has been a little scattered over the season but when Cousins is on the same page with him, this Falcons also is dangerous. Following up on the San Francisco 49ers victory over Dallas, the Falcons will be a favorable stack on Sunday.

now that everyone has lamented about the fumble that didn't count, can we talk about how Kyle Pitts has his explosiveness back?

- splits the defenders and breaks two tackles
- Kirk throws a laser, and Pitts doesn't have to break stride

this is the best we've seen Pitts look pic.twitter.com/XcRitmCGyp

— Tre’Shon (@tre3shon) October 28, 2024

Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses

1. Washington (3) vs. N.Y. Giants (23)
2. Miami (9) vs. Buffalo (15)
3. Buffalo (12) vs. Miami (16)
4. Atlanta (15) vs. Dallas (31)
5. Tennessee (17) vs. New England (22)

The Washington Commanders will have a solid matchup against the New York Giants on Sunday. While many will run to Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler has been producing just as well. Ekeler had seven carries for 52 rushing yards while Robinson Jr. had 16 carries for 65 yards. He also had three targets with one being a red zone target which Robinson did not have.

James Cook should be a favorite running back to use as he gets Miami's run defense. Cook is coming off of a huge game with 111 rushing yards off of 17 carries in Week 8. The ownership may not be as high and with other options in more "favorable" matchups, Cook could produce and put a lineup over the top, even as a one-off.

2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Jacksonville (Hurts), Baltimore (Nix), Cincinnati (Minshew), Carolina (Carr - Expected to Return), Dallas (Cousins)

RB - Carolina (Kamara), Jacksonville (Barkley), New England (Pollard), Dallas (Robinson), Buffalo (Achane)

WR - Baltimore (Sutton), Detroit (Reed/Doubs), Jacksonville (Brown), Arizona (Moore), New Orleans (Legette)

TE - Carolina (Hill/Johnson), Baltimore (Trautman), L.A. Rams (Fant), Cincinnati (Bowers), Green Bay (LaPorta)

DEF - TEN (NE), LV (CIN), MIA (BUF), NE (TEN), NYG (WAS)

There will be a few powerhouse offenses that are going to pop this Sunday. You'll have to decide between the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cincinnati Bengals, or the Buffalo Bills. All three offenses are firing on all cylinders. The Eagles stack should start with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and A.J. Brown. It'll be pricey but they should be able to pay off the price tag.

With the Cincinnati Bengals, they will be facing the Las Vegas Raiders but you can't fade the Joe Burrows and Ja'Marr Chase connection. Chase meant it when he said that he's always open. For the Buffalo Bills, Keon Coleman has now played consistently well with the addition of Amari Cooper. He may be the one receiver out of three offenses that could go overlooked.

There are a lot of good spots in Week 9 which could help balance out the ownership. It will also make the choices much more difficult when building lineups.

Ja’Marr Chase has SEVEN touchdowns in his last SIX games 😳 pic.twitter.com/GveAUpmOEM

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 27, 2024

Week 9 DFS Salary Analysis

If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.

And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.

To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.

FanDuel Values (FD, DK)

1. Terry McLaurin ($7.4K vs. $7.1K)
2. DJ Moore ($6.6K vs. $6.5K)
3. Austin Ekeler ($5.5K vs. $5.3K)
4. Keon Coleman ($6K vs. $5.4K)
5. Bo Nix ($7.2K vs. $5.9K)

DraftKings Values (DK, FD)

1. Alvin Kamara ($7.8K vs. $8.8K)
2. Bijan Robinson ($7.4K vs. $8.5K)
3. Calvin Ridley ($5.7K vs. $6.2K)
4. Jakobi Meyers ($5.3K vs. $6.3K)
5. Mark Andrews ($4.2K vs. $5.8K)

Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)

There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).

1. Cousins - London ($13.1K, $15.4K)
2. Nix - Sutton ($11.3K, $13.2K)
3. Williams - Moore ($12.6K, $13.8K)
4. Stafford - Nacua ($12.9K, $15.7K)
5. Winston - Njoku ($10.9K, $14K)
6. Lawrence - Washington ($9.2K, $12.8K) - Extreme risk

Alright, that's it for Week 9 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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