NFL Betting Picks for Week 3 (9/26/2021) - Spreads, Totals, and Moneylines

September 26, 2021

Steve Janik analyzes the 2021 Week 3 NFL schedule and recommends his favorite NFL picks. His analysis consists of key player and stat breakdowns, as well as recent performance and historical stat and trend data to help you make informed betting decisions, each and every week.

When setting all of your article picks in the 1pm slate of games, it sets you up to make or break your day. Well, our day was broken. Going with two overs, the early slate was a snooze fest, scoring wise. Chicago took care of business against Cincinnati but the other two games just weren't the right side. Early in the season, but we learn from it and move on.

• 2021 Season: 2-4 (33%, -2u)
  • Spread: 2-0, +1.72u
  • Total:  0-3, -3u
  • Moneyline: 0-1, -.75u
  • Props: 0-0

As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. For instance, Draftkings has done a 20% Profit Boost every week of the NFL season for each of the last few years, making it difficult to bet elsewhere unless you really like a line. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.

I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

Sunday 9/26, 1PM EST | O/U: 45.5

The Football Team is now under the reigns of former FCS stud Taylor Heinicke and they're 1-0 with his leadership. We've still only seen him play in three games in Washington, but he threw for 336 yards and two scores in Week 2 against the Giants, so he's definitely not devoid of talent. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic form an interesting backfield duo and if Washington can get them both going and take some attention off of Terry McLaurin, this offense really has a chance to get things going. Defensively, WFT has struggled early on but many had big expectations coming into the season. They've allowed over 390 yards of offense in the first two games against the Chargers and Giants, so the jury is still out. By DVOA, they're ranked 21st which isn't a good sign but for a rather healthy team, I expect better in the weeks to come.

The Bills came back strong from a Week 1 loss to the Steelers by routing the Miami Dolphins 35-0. Interestingly enough, the offense hasn't been the catalyst, but the defense. They allowed 252 yards against Pittsburgh then just 216 against Miami, but keep in mind Tua Tagovailoa went out and did not return. Josh Allen does not look himself, which has caused them to rely heavily on the run, which is also something Bills aren't known for (finished 22nd in Rush DVOA in 2020). Relying on Devin Singletary is not a key for success. Back to the defense, they're ranked 2nd in DVOA but again, I feel these numbers are inflated based on the teams they've played thus far. They finished 11th a year ago, so not a totally outrageous improvement, but I need to see more.

This Washington team is better than people think with Heinicke and has some real playmakers on offense. I also think their defense is on par, if not better (at least defending the run) than Buffalo. I look for them to eat Singletary alive on the ground, forcing Allen to make plays through the air, which can be risky, but he is prone to errors at times. Give me the Football Team on the road.

Pick: Washington +7.5 (+104, Draftkings 20% Profit Boost) 1 Unit

Baltimore Ravens (-8) at Detroit Lions

Sunday, 9/26, 1PM EST | O/U: 50

The Detroit Lions have "surprised" some people, me at least, to open the seaosn. Granted, the expectations were so insanely low, that it would be hard for a team of professional football players to not exceed them. However, keep in mind they're still 0-2. Jared Goff has been rather impressive commanding the offense, throwing for 550 yards and five scores. His receiving corps is pretty barren; their top three receivers are a tight end and two running backs. T.J. Hockenson has been, and will continue to be, fed like a WR1 on most other teams, while DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams are tag teaming out of the backfield as dynamic backs.

Baltimore seems to always be known for running the football land a stout defense. The same is no different in 2021, except for the defense part. The gave up 33 points in an OT loss to the Raiders Week 1, then 35 against the obviously potent Kansas City Chiefs last week. They've been solid against the run, allowing just 144 yards, but through the air they've been getting gashed. This is where I see issues for them against Detroit. According to FootballOutsiders.com, Baltimore struggles against everyone but their opponents' WR1, including the RB which they rank 29th against in the pass.

As of this writing, Lamar Jackson (illness) missed Thursday's practice but until we know more, I expect him to play. I actually like this play MORE if Jackson plays, but I still like it if something happens and he doesn't. Detroit can move the ball and Baltimore's defense has struggled mightily, thus far, against positions that Detroit has at a premium.

Pick: Detroit Team Total Over 20 (-116, Fanduel) 1 Unit

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 9/26, 4:25PM EST | O/U: 55

The Buccaneers have picked up right where they left off in 2020. A 2-0 start with a +25 point differential is something you'd expect from a team that returned a majority of their starters from the reigning Super Bowl champs. Tom Brady has been incredible with almost 700 yards passing and nine touchdowns, which has carried the offense, as they've only rushed for 134 yards as a team. But would you expect anything less than the 44-year-old Brady to carry this team. Defensively, Tampa has allowed over 290 yards passing in both games, but just 115 yards rushing and those numbers are backed up by FootballOutsiders' DVOA, pinning TB at 14th in passing and 5th in rush defense.

This Rams team is arguably the best in the NFC and a team many predict to go to the Super Bowl. The addition of Matthew Stafford has seemed to boost this team in ways they dreamed of. A typically run-heavy scheme, the Rams have been rather balanced through two games. However, Darrell Henderson (ribs) hasn't practiced this week which opens the possibility that Sony Michel will carry the majority of the work in Week 3, also leaving the possibility that Stafford and his receivers continue to build on one of the league's best attacks. Defensively, they have shown strong prowess in the passing game with some struggles in the run game (allowing 122 ypg so far) but that should benefit them in this one as Tampa Bay is much more pass heavy.

This is a game filled with impressive offenses, so most go straight for the over. I think that Tampa doesn't trust their running game and LA may be without their top back. Meanwhile LA carries one of the best passing defenses in the league, proving to be an instant challenge to Brady and company.

Pick: Under 55.5  (-109 Barstool Sportsbook, 1 Unit)

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