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You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming: the fantasy football regular season is over (in most leagues and for our purposes at least), and it's time to gear up for that deep playoff run toward the championship. It's just three more weeks and fantasy contests for most GMs out there, so if you're still alive and trying to make a deep playoff run ending in a championship, you better not let any valuable bit of information slip through the cracks.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 14 - The Running Game Is Alive!
I have mentioned one of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players through this series of articles: Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to knowing who is really overperforming or underperforming among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
Last season, the NFL introduced the concepts of:
- Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders?)
- Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays)
- Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball carrier gained more yards than expected)
I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15Att," which accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 70 rushing attempts.
Running Backs Efficiency
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-22%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Remember, the more "efficient" a rusher is, the lower amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposite goal line in a straight route.
Second check in a row in which no rusher is below a 3.00 EFF in the leaderboard. It's now been six weeks with that being the case.
With the new 70-carry minimum, Rashaad Penny is no longer part of the leaderboard. That opened the door for Khalil Herbert to take lone possession of the no. 1 spot in the EFF leaderboard. He's the only player in the NFL "wasting" fewer than 3.2 yards per carry.
There is a large gap of 1.64 yards between the lowest EFF (Herbert) and the highest (Cam Akers). Herbert is averaging 12.3 FP/15Att compared to Akers' paltry 8.2 figure.
In fact, only three players at the bottom of the EFF leaderboard (wasting more than 4.00 yards per carry) are posting averages of 10+ FP/15Att through Week 14: Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, and Kenneth Walker.
On the other hand, the four most-efficient rushers through Week 14 are all averaging at least 11.5 FP/15Att while having carried the ball between 108 and 269 times.
There are 12 players with at least 6+ touchdowns scored to date. They average an EFF figure of 3.72 yards. That compares to a much higher 3.95 EFF averaged by the nine players that have fewer than <3 touchdowns on the year.
Among all 50 qualified RBs for Week 14, the average EFF is at 3.79 yards, exactly the same figure it was three weeks ago when we checked for the last time.
- Rushers with EFF marks below 3.60 are averaging 9.1 ruFPPG and 10.4 ruFP/15Att
- Rushers with EFF marks above 4.00 are averaging 6.8 ruFPPG and 8.5 ruFP/15Att
Of 14 rushers with averages of 10+ ruFPPG through Week 14, the average EFF for them sits at 3.60. Those with averages of <7 ruFPPG have an average EFF of 3.92.
Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 20%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points is so minimal that it doesn't make much sense to be overly worried about it, if anything at all.
Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that almost non-existent relation, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.
It's getting crowded at the top of the stacked-box leaderboard with Derrick Henry and Tyler Allgeier basically on the same percentage, and D'Onta Foreman a close third less than one percentage point below the latter.
Nobody reached Henry's 38%+ from Week 11 three weeks after that, although there are three players (virtually) bunched into a one-point gap with five more into a 0.5-point distance between CMC (32.8%) and four others ahead of him all at 33.3 percent.
D'Andre Swift trails everybody in stacked box rate making the cut at precisely 70 rushing attempts through Week 14. Eno Benjamin is the closest to him in percentage and the only other player below a 10% rate to date.
There are actually four players with fewer than 10 (counting) stacked boxes faced this season, including Swift and Benjamin: Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Henderson Jr. None of the four have topped 73 carries through Week 14, though.
Henry has faced more stacked boxes (104) than 11 qualified players have rushed the ball overall, from Swift and Henderson (both 70 carries) to Rachaad White's 96 rushing attempts.
Rushers averaging 10+ ruFP/15Att have a combined average of 22.7% stacked boxes faced. Those averaging fewer than nine ruFP/15Att have faced such defenses 20.3% of the time they've rushed the rock.
Henry is the only player facing stacked boxes more than 30% of the time while having 6+ touchdowns to date. No other player at such a rate has more than five, and only two (Patterson and CMC) have reached that figure.
Four players have 4+ touchdowns while facing stacked boxes fewer than 15% of the time they carry the ball. Only James Conner (14.7%) has scored five touchdowns while facing stacked fronts at such low rates.
Swift and Aaron Jones are the only two players averaging 5.0+ YPC while facing stacked boxes at fewer than a 17.7% rate. They are dealing with such defenses in just 8.6% and 10.4% of their carries, respectively.
Cam Akers has one of the lowest stacked-box rates in the NFL (10.6%) but he trails every other qualified player in YPC (3.3). Defenses don't respect Akers one bit, but he's done nothing to prove that strategy wrong.
Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-1%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
You might think that TLOS and EFF are related, as a north-south rusher should spend less time behind the line of scrimmage. With 14 weeks on the books already, the relation sits at a ridiculous negative 7%. I mean... nothing linked between these two things, I'm afraid.
The relation between TLOS and actual fantasy points is also pretty much nonexistent, so this metric can be discarded when analyzing players in fantasy leagues and trying to predict their outcomes.
Samaje Perine, although on a smaller sample than those following him, leads the league as the quickest rusher to cross the LOS at just 2.59 seconds. Nobody else is currently doing it in fewer than 2.62 seconds.
Of those averaging a TLOS below 2.70 seconds, both Damien Harris and Perine (quickest RB in the league) have fewer than 85 carries to date. Everybody else has rushed the rock at least 112 times through Week 14.
Nick Chubb and Kenneth Walker III are, by a mile, the slowest players to cross the LOS in the NFL. They are also backed up by rather large workloads of 231 and 138 carries, respectively.
Kenyan Drake and Kareem Hunt follow them relatively closely and tight between them, though it must also be said that Drake's sample is still below 100 total carries through Week 14. As always, it's interesting to find both Browns rushers Chubb and Hunt at the same end of the spectrum and so close to one another.
The Houston Texans are the team (min. two rushers qualified) that have the closest RBs in terms of TLOS. Dameon Pierce and Eno Benjamin are separated by a measly 0.03 TLOS.
The Jets would actually be the best team on a two-player basis (Michael Carter and James Robinson have the exact same 2.82 TLOS) but they feature a third player in Breece Hall (2.91) that moves that average a bit (only for now, as Hall is done for the year and won't make the final-season cut).
- Rushers with 10+ FPPG through Week 11 are averaging 2.82 TLOS.
- Rushers with <7 FPPG are averaging 2.80 seconds behind the LOS.
As stated earlier, there might be a little something to this, but it's ridiculously insignificant to give it any importance at all for fantasy purposes.
ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 70% / 78% / 33% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
The 6.2 Y/A figures from last week (Penny and Herbert) are no more, folks. Herbert still leads the way easily over Tony Pollard (Hall is second but won't qualify for the year's end leaderboards as he's injured) but he's at right 6.0 YPC.
Nobody is within 0.5 yards of reaching Herbert and Pollard when it comes to rushers having 100+ carries through Week 14. Swift still has the time to get there, though, needing an average of 7+ carries per week ROS to make the final cut.
Of the 11 players having YPC averages of 5.0+ yards, only four have scored more than five touchdowns. Pollard has the best combination, posting the second-best YPC and having nine TD scores to his name already.
Cam Akers and Leonard Fournette have both been disgraceful this season. They have carried the rock 113 and 149 times through Week 14 (8+ and 11+ carries per game) but they're averaging the two worst YPC marks in the NFL.
That said, Alvin Kamara and Rachaad White are close to those levels considering they have scored just one touchdown each through Week 14 while having averages of <4.0 YPC to date (on 143 and 96 rushing attempts, respectively).
Jamaal Williams leads the NFL in touchdowns with 14 TDs. He also has the largest disparity between ruFP/15Att with and without factoring touchdowns in, putting up 12.1 fantasy points per 15 carries considering his touchdowns and a measly 5.9 when not doing so.
Aaron Jones has the smallest such gap between multi-TD-scorers through Week 14. He averages 8.8 ruFP/15Att, including touchdowns and 7.7 fantasy points not including them.
It will take an impressive effort from Derrick Henry to overtake Josh Jacobs in the rushing yardage leaderboard. They are separated by 201 yards with four weeks to go, but as long as they stay healthy and on the field, that's not changing. They have 269 and 275 rushing attempts.
Nick Chubb and Miles Sanders have a real chance at overtaking Henry, though. They average 5.0 and 5.2 YPC compared to Henry's 4.4, so over a four-game period, that difference might bridge the gaps they have with the Rushing King through Week 14.
As things stand and with no more bye weeks in the schedule, 13 rushers are on pace to break the 1,000-yard barrier when all is said and done, assuming they stay healthy. Only seven rushers reached that figure last season, although 16 (!) put up those numbers as recently as in 2019.
Henry and Jacobs should finish the season with between 350 and 360 carries each. Jonathan Taylor led the NFL with 332 last year. Only 15 players (including Henry in 2020) have reached 360+ rushing attempts since the start of the century.
YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 78% / 51% / 33% / 40% / 22%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Starting last year, the NFL introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, defender positional data, etc...).
- The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
- The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
- The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in five of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.
Not particularly important looking at it from the broadest angle, but Travis Etienne's fall from grace keeps going for the second consecutive time as he's gone from 2.4 RYOE/A to 1.5 and now 1.0 yards per attempt. He is still inside the top-10 players on that leaderboard, though.
Pollard has surrendered his Week 11 lead (2.2) to Herbert and his Week 14 figure of 1.9 RYOE/A. Nobody is above that mark, and it's going to be hard to have a rusher putting up 2.0+ figures going forward as carries keep pilling up on their stat lines.
Pollard has a rather bulky workload of 158 carries under his belt, but Chubb's 1.4 RYOE/A figure on 231 carries is just unmatched. Josh Jacobs, the next rusher with 200+ carries in the leaderboard, is already down below one such yard at 0.9 ROYE/A.
The two worst players in terms of putting up yards above expectations share the same minus-0.7 figure. More worrying (for the Chiefs) is the fact that two of the bottom-three players have done it while playing for the same franchise: MG3 and CEH.
On a per-15-attempt basis, only three RBs are averaging 10+ ruFP while underperforming the expectations: CEH, Jamaal Williams, and Dalvin Cook.
On the other hand, Caleb Huntley and Travis Etienne Jr. are the only two rushers putting up fewer than 10 ruFP/15Att while outperforming the expectations by 1.0+ RYOE/A.
Ezekiel Elliott and Devin Singletary are averaging exactly as many rushing yards as expected (RYOE/A of 0.0). Elliott is averaging 11.4 ruFPPG and Singletary 6.8.
Four players outperformed the expectations on 50%+ of their carries. Only one (Huntley) is above 51% with a gaudy 55.4% league-leading figure. All other three players are inside a 0.5% clip.
As ridiculous as it sounds, two of those four players play for Atlanta while two others inside the top-five play for Green Bay (AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones).
Swift is the only player in the league doing it in fewer than 31.9% of his carries, which on his already-low volume, means he's only outperformed the expectations 20 times overall through Week 14. CEH and Henderson follow him with 23 each.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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