NCAA Football Playoff Games: Best Picks and Championship Prediction

December 9, 2023

NCAA college football betting picks and championship prediction, including betting lines and recommendations.

Whether or not you agree with the committee, it cannot be said that this is not the most competitive group of playoff teams yet. And it only took until the final year of the system to get it.

Georgia was by far the best team in the country the past two seasons. This led to little intrigue going into the playoffs. This year, every team which has made it has a good chance to win the entire thing. This will make for some exciting games. Far more exciting than if Florida State made it. Although yes, they did deserve to be there. But even with Jordan Travis, they are not one of the four best teams.

Having to go up against Nick Saban and Alabama, the Michigan Wolverines are just as mad as the Seminoles that Florida State did not get in. It will now take a perfect performance by Jim Harbaugh and Michigan to get past the Crimson Tide. Will they be able to pull it off? Look at the best bets below to find out.

Playoff Game Best Bets:

Rose Bowl: (4)Alabama vs. (1)Michigan|

Betting Lines: Michigan -1.5(-110) O/U 45.5 O(-110) U(-110)|

Despite a ton of money coming in on Alabama money line, the odds have not changed at all for this game. The total has moved up from 44.5 to 45.5, but the line of -1.5 for Michigan has remained.

If the Michigan and Alabama defenses both play to their full potential, this could end the same way the Alabama/LSU game in 2011 ended. Remember the thrilling 9-6 game of No. 1 vs. No. 2? Of course, Alabama came back in the national title game and throttled the Tigers. But this time, there would be no rematch.

Michigan might have the best player on the field in RB Blake Corum. But with injuries mounting on the offensive line for Michigan and with Dallas Turner looking to wreak havoc against J.J. McCarthy, he might not be able to run loose the way he did against opponents this time. Finishing with 24 TD and 1,028 rushing yards, Corum took the lead role back from Donovan Edwards and did not relinquish it. He will need to have another big game against Alabama if Michigan wants to end its two-game playoff losing streak.

Alabama will just need to continue to play in this game the way it did against Georgia. After a stunning win on the fourth and goal from the 31-yard line against Auburn, Alabama controlled a lot of the game against the Bulldogs.

Georgia got out to a fast start going up 7-0 on the opening drive but it was all Tide from there. A much-maligned Alabama offensive line finally held up and the defense limited big plays from Carson Beck and Georgia. Michigan does not have the same talent at the skill positions as Georgia. This will make it easier for Alabama to defend them and this will be a close game from start to finish. I do not see a blow out coming here. Mainly because I do not think either team will score enough. But if either team were able to run it up, it would be Alabama.

Best Bets: Alabama ML and Under 45.5

Sugar Bowl: (3)Texas vs. (2)Washington|

Betting Lines: Texas -4.5(-108) O/U 64.5 O(-108) U(-112)|

While some analysts had one of these teams in the playoffs before the season, this is a matchup between two teams many did not expect to be here. Washington, the undefeated Pac-12 champions, will take on the Texas Longhorns for the right to take on the winner of the Rose Bowl. It will be a far different game than the one being played in Pasadena. With a total 19 points higher than that of Michigan vs. Alabama, this game will be a high-scoring offensive affair between two less than elite defenses going against two offenses who can put up points in bunches.

Both Texas and Washington will use elite wide receivers to move the ball down the field. Washington will have Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk for Michael Pennix to throw to while Texas will have Xavier Worthy and A.D. Mitchell to catch the ball from Quinn Ewers.

While both teams can get to the QB with the pass rush, if the QB is able to get the ball out quickly, the secondaries of both teams are the weak part of the defenses. This will allow the offenses to continue to move the ball and points will be plentiful. The biggest difference here could be the run game. While Washington is known more for its passing, RB Dylan Johnson has compiled 1,113 yards and 14 TD on 201 rushes for the Huskies. His ability to gain needed yards in key situations was a big reason Washington was able to remain undefeated against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.

Texas, who was running the ball well with Jonathan Brooks before his injury, will now be forced to turn again to freshman C.J. Baxter. If the Texas offensive line can dominate the Washington defensive line, Baxter could have a big game. If not, Johnson and his ability to get to the second level of the Texas defense will make all the difference in this semi-final.

Best Bet: Over 64.5

National Champion Pick:

Odds: Michigan +175 Alabama +210 Texas +260 Washington +800|

Michigan has been the most consistent team in this group since the start of the season. Even without its head coach for half the season, the Wolverines were able to fight through a cupcake schedule and remain undefeated. After the stunning loss by Georgia to Alabama, Michigan moved into the number one spot in the ranks and in the championship odds. But as stated, the Wolverines have not been truly tested the way the other teams in the bracket have been.

Alabama, with a loss to Texas, was still able to rebound from the game to defeat LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia on its way to the No. four seed. Although the Aggies were not great in the final season under Jimbo Fisher, they were still far more talented than any team Michigan beat outside of Ohio State and Penn State. The likes of UNLV, Bowling Green and Indiana do not measure up. Sorry Wolverines fans.

Washington, the other undefeated team in the playoffs, comes into the tournament with the best unit of any team here. Their group of wide receivers are better than any other unit and it will be able to use the trio of Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk to go up against a Texas secondary which is the weakest part of the Longhorns defense.

If the offensive line of Washington can hold up against an elite pass rush in Texas, the Huskies have a good chance to pull out an upset and defeat the Longhorns in a high scoring game to get to the championship game. Texas is everyone’s darling this season. After consistently dropping at least one game a season which they shouldn’t, the Longhorns finally overcame their demons and prevailed in their final year in the Big-12.

With its only loss being the rivalry game against Oklahoma in a battle for the ages, Texas did everything it could to be in this position. Including winning by 10 points in Tuscaloosa against Alabama. While it did not play the most difficult schedule, it was far from the easy schedule Michigan played.

As with every Texas team, there were some tense moments against Kansas State and Houston. But the team stuck together and even without stud RB Jonathan Brooks, were able to win when push came to shove. If QB Quinn Ewers can meld with WR A.D. Mitchell, and Xavier Worthy and if new starting RB C.J. Baxter can produce, Texas has all the talent needed to win.

Alabama started the season slow. After a loss to Texas and barely winning against USF, the Crimson Tide were left for dead heading into their SEC schedule. Lucky for them, Jalen Milroe found himself and became a potential Heisman contender heading into 2024. His running ability, matched with his ability to find the open receivers when needed, allowed Alabama to win the rest of its games. With its win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, its fate was sealed. The committee was never going to leave them out of the playoffs. Not with SEC commissioner Greg Sanky being the most powerful person in the sport.

What Alabama does better than finding a way to win on offense is to play elite defense. With Dallas Turner looking to be the first defensive player taken in the 2024 NFL draft, the Michigan offensive line will be hard pressed to keep him from getting to J.J. McCarthy. On the backend of the defense, Kool-Aid McKinstry is a shut down corner who is also looking to be a first round draft selection. Opposite McKinstry, Kaleb Downs was a stud as a Freshman and played the most snaps of any player on the Alabama defense.

With Michigan not being a good passing team, Alabama will be able to use one of these two studs to rush the passer and keep McCarthy even more off balance. If this is successful, Alabama has a good chance to win and get to Houston for the final game.

Before I give you a prediction for a winner, I will give you, my hope. I hope it is Washington vs. Alabama with Washington coming out on top. I think it would be a great end to a wonderful football season. And despite not being in the playoff, Georgia is still the best team in the country this season.

The Winner: Alabama over Washington 34-28

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