December 14, 2017

Leo assesses fantasy basketball value on hot streaking NBA players in Week 8.

Another week, another heat check. We’re nearing the halfway mark of the fantasy season and players have mostly settled into their roles. Of course, there’s always a couple outliers. Players break out for huge games seemingly out of nowhere. Maybe they finally got comfortable and figured it out, or maybe they finally got a good night’s sleep and it was a fluke of a performance.

Regardless, it’s up to you to decide whether to hold or to drop them from your fantasy lineup. We’ll help you get there by digging into some of their recent performances to make educated guesses on whether their recent level of play is sustainable or not. We’ll also suggest some players we that we think should offer similar value in case you want to make a trade.

Let’s take a look at some noteworthy players who have been putting up big numbers.

NBA Heat Check

E'Twaun Moore, SG, New Orleans Pelicans

A seventh-year player, E’Twaun Moore has been playing surprisingly well throughout the season. Most recently on Monday, he posted a delicious stat line of 36 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists on a whopping 15 of 20 from the field with six three-pointers. His numbers have increased across the board from last season, when he averaged just 9.6 points in less than 25 minutes. This year, he’s been averaging 13.3 points in 32.3 minutes. Most interesting is the fact that his usage rate has actually decreased from 17.4% last year to 15.8% this year. But the huge increase in minutes per game—the highest of his career—offsets his lower usage rate and results in a net positive in touches. Moore is also being way more effective with his shots. His true shooting percentage has skyrocketed to 63.1% this season, up from 53.7% last season. This puts him at an amazing 16th in the league. For reference, James Harden and Kevin Durant are 15th and 18th, respectively, in true shooting percentage.

One reason for his career year might be that he’s replicating the offensive style of the Houston Rockets: get layups and threes and nothing in between. He’s taking 24.4% of his shots within 3 feet and 39.0% of his shots beyond the three-point line, which are both career highs. There is reason to be cautious though, because he’s hitting 47.3% of his threes compared to his career average of 38.3%. Nevertheless, it’s entirely possible that he improved his shot during the off-season. It would probably be best to hold Moore but keep an eye on his three-point percentage. He has around the same level of value as J.J. Redick or Spencer Dinwiddie.

Zach Randolph, PF, Sacramento Kings

Zach Randolph has been trending up through the season. Most recently, last Friday he put up very generous 35 points on 14 of 22 from the field with 13 boards. In his past 10 games, he’s put up averages of 19.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.1 steals in 29.4 minutes per game. Compare that with his first 15 games when he averaged 12.3 points and 5.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 0.8 steals. His minutes have been steadily increasing over the season from just 24.6 per game through his first ten games. He’s obviously taking on a bigger role in the Kings lineup, especially with Skal Labissiere under-performing his potential.

Randolph has actually been posting a 26.6% usage rate, which is greater than his average of 25.0% usage during his days on the Memphis Grizzlies. However, one aspect to keep an eye on is the rise of Willey Cauley-Stein in the Kings rotation, especially considering that the Kings are rebuilding and Cauley-Stein is in his third year and only improving. Cauley-Stein might get more and more touches, but nevertheless, the Kings front court rotation mainly consists of Randolph and Cauley-Stein. There isn’t much competition for those positions and Randolph should continue getting his fair share of playing time as a reliable veteran on the team. Randolph’s age is definitely a cause for concern. He’s probably not going to decline heavily this season considering his production this far into the season, but players that offer similar trade value would be Thaddeus Young or Robert Covington.

 
Josh Richardson, SG/SF, Miami Heat

Josh Richardson received a lot of hype in the preseason as a player who could potentially make the jump to the next level. But he started off the season lethargically, averaging just 8.6 points on 36.9% from the field through 20 games. His rock-solid defense is what kept him on the floor and playing 32.5 minutes per game, and he’s always been a defensive specialist, with 1.2 steals and 0.7 blocks over the same 20 game span. However, he’s really picked it up over the past few games. Two weeks ago, he put up an impressive 27 points, a career high, with three three-pointers, one steal and one block. Then on Monday, he posted 17 points with three three-pointers, five rebounds, and a block to prove it wasn’t a fluke. Over the past seven games, he’s been averaging 14.9 points on 52% shooting and 2.3 threes. That’s a marked improvement from his first 20 games. His stocks have been a little disappointing at 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks, but he’s been staying active on the defensive end with deflections so it’s only a matter of time until the steals start to trend back up.

His numbers aren’t amazing, but with the way he’s been playing, he won’t hurt you in any categories. If he has indeed made the jump as a third-year player, it would be better to pick him up early on rather than missing the train. It’s not guaranteed that he’ll continue putting up career best stat lines but he’s a great glue guy to fill out your roster since he contributes a decent amount to every category across the board. You might also be able to snag him and sell him on his potential, but his current value isn’t too high. Jordan Clarkson is a decent equivalent. A wait and see approach is probably the better play while he fills out the bottom of your roster.

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