Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis: Jets vs Patriots

November 9, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Giants vs. Bucs MNF game in Week 9. Dan Fornek analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

After several fun and exciting Monday night matchups, we have gotten into the unfortunate part of the season. The Tampa Bay and Giants matchup seemed rough… but then the Patriots and Jets game entered the picture and I feel like none of us will be the same. If you are starting more than one of these players this week, even in the bye week and COVID case purgatory, then your fantasy team may be in some considerable trouble. However, some gems do have some intriguing upside this week that bears monitoring.

New England is limping into this matchup on the back of a four-game losing streak and a rudderless offense. Cam Newton has struggled since his COVID diagnosis but did seem to resemble himself a little bit more in a close loss at the Buffalo Bills last week. The Patriots will run the ball, but the backfield is as confusing as ever with three players (plus Cam Newton) getting carries depending on the gameplan. The one thing you can count on with New England? Their defense is once again stout and has looked good the past few weeks.

On the other side, the Jets are arguably the worst roster in the NFL in 2020. Sam Darnold has struggled and is injured again. The backfield is failing to put together anything close to a competent run game. The wide receivers are often injured and ineffective when Jamison Crowder on the field. Even the defense is in shambles, giving up points through the air and on the ground at will. Despite their struggles, the Patriots still find themselves entering this game as a full touchdown favorite. That is just how bad the Jets have been this season.

New England Patriots at New York Jets 

• Game time: Monday 11/9 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: New England -7
• Over/Under: 42

Must-Starts

Cam Newton (QB, NE)

Despite all the heat Cam Newton has been getting this fantasy season, he is still averaging 19.02 fantasy points per game, just behind Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Newton has struggled in the passing game this season, throwing for 1,143 yards and two touchdowns with seven interceptions. He is being very effective on the ground, however, carrying the ball 59 times for 298 yards (5.1 yards per carry) for six touchdowns, giving him a big upside in four-point touchdown passing leagues.

The Jets are allowing 20.5 points per week to quarterbacks this season, surrendering 2,310 passing yards and 16 touchdowns this season. They have also allowed 155 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, which should play into Newton’s strengths. Last week was the best Newton has looked since his COVID diagnosis earlier in the season, so if he is starting to get right, then he is playable once again.

Damien Harris (RB, NE)

Damien Harris comes with some risk heading into this week both via workload and an ankle injury, but of all the players in this game, he is the only one that has the feel of somebody who is a “must start” this week thanks to the running backs missing due to injury or byes. Harris has seen his role expand for the Patriots the last two weeks, carrying the ball 26 times for 160 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco and Buffalo. Be wary though, he has yet to crack a 40% snap share on offense for the Patriots and doesn’t have a huge role in the passing game (just two targets in four games played this season).

The Jets have been better against the run in recent weeks, but are still allowing 20.2 fantasy points per game to running backs on the season. They have given up seven rushing touchdowns this year and are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 98 yards per game per season. The Patriots are favored to win by a touchdown a game that is projected to be the lowest-scoring game on the slate. If New England gets ahead, they could lean on Harris heavily assuming his ankle is up to the challenge.

Consider Sitting

Sam Darnold (QB, NYJ)

Sam Darnold has struggled all season for the Jets, although a combination of Adam Gase and a rotating cast of mostly unhealthy receivers can partially shoulder the blame. Darnold has thrown for only 200 yards passing only twice this season and has yet to have a game with multiple touchdowns. The third-year quarterback is completing just 58% of his passes for 1,045 yards and just three touchdowns to six interceptions. Darnold suffered another shoulder injury in Week 8 against Kansas City, but the Jets seem content trotting him out there even if he isn’t 100% which is the most Jets thing on this earth.

Darnold faces an uphill battle once again this week. The Patriots are allowing just 14 fantasy points per week to quarterbacks this season and have generated as many interceptions as touchdowns given up (9). Without Stephon Gilmore last week, the Patriots held Josh Allen to just 154 passing yards and zero touchdowns with an interception. With Darnold ailing and Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder questionable yet again, Darnold is the definition of a stay away once again this week.

UPDATE: Sam Darnold is doubtful to play this week, Joe Flacco would fill in.

Rex Burkhead (RB, NE)

On one hand, Rex Burkhead has seen the most consistent usage in the Patriots backfield this season, getting over a 30% snap share in every game this year. On the other hand, it hasn’t translated to much from a fantasy standpoint. Burkhead has 45 carries for 180 yards and two touchdowns on the year while adding 16 receptions on 22 targets for 141 yards and an additional score. With Sony Michel still out, Damien Harris potentially ailing, and what should be a game where the Patriots lead, Burkhead could get a decent amount of run, but his impact this game should be negligible once again unless he finds a way to fall into the end zone in garbage time.

Frank Gore (RB, NYJ)

Frank Gore continues to defy father time, carving out a relatively significant role for the Jets in his age-37 season. Gore has 96 carries for 340 yards this year and has double-digit carries in six out of eight games this year. In the past three weeks, Gore has carried the ball 32 times for 136 yards but has yet to find the endzone. Gore is seeing a consistent snap share this season, logging at least a third of the offensive snaps in each game since Week 1. The problem is with the Jets’ anemic offense there aren’t any stand-out players to this point.

The Patriots have been susceptible to opposing run games this year, surrendering 21.5 points per game to RB’s this season. However, if the Jets do find themselves trailing this game, it is unlikely they will utilize Gore and will go with other options who can serve in a pass-catching role.

Breshad Perriman (WR, NYJ)

Breshad Perriman has struggled to make an impact in his first season with the Jets has been noticeable this year. Perriman has logged snaps in only four games, catching 11 of 17 targets for 118 yards. Perriman has been hampered by injuries this year, fighting through knee swelling, an ankle sprain, and now facing the concussion protocol. If Perriman clears protocol, he still faces an uphill climb against the Patriots. New England is allowing just 22.1 points per week to wideouts this year. That, combined with Perriman’s inconsistent health, makes him a considerable risk.

Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)

When healthy, Jamison Crowder is a definite must start. In the four games he has played this year, Crowder has seen at least 10 targets and caught at least seven passes. In his first three games, he went over 100 yards and caught a touchdown pass in two of them. The Jets offense is generally inept, but they function better as a whole when Jamison Crowder in the fold. Unfortunately, Crowder has been dealing with a groin injury that has kept him out of the past two weeks. Crowder did not practice on Thursday but was expected to give it a shot on Friday. Monitor his status through the weekend, but be wary of firing him up without a reservation.

UPDATE: Jamison Crowder has been limited all week, but is expected to play.

Potential Sleepers

James White (RB, NE)

James White has seen his role fluctuate throughout the year, getting 14 carries 51 yards while adding 21 receptions on 25 targets for 171 yards. With Cam Newton being erratic, White has struggled to see the same success he has had with Tom Brady. With the Patriots predicted to hold on to a sizable lead, White shouldn’t see much usage. His first week of the season (the only win White took part in this season), New England won by 10 and White finished with five carries for 22 yards and three receptions for 30 yards.

If the Jets are somehow able to take a lead, then White will get far more work, giving him solid appeal for fantasy gamers. It is possible but unlikely.

La'Mical Perine (RB, NYJ)

After the Le’Veon Bell trade, plenty of fantasy players and analysts predicted that La’Mical Perine could take over the Jets backfield. So far, that hasn’t been the case. Perine has carried the ball 26 times for 94 yards and a touchdown since Week 6. He has added six catches on eight targets for 31 yards through the air as well. Perine has taken a majority of the snaps in the backfield since the Bell trade but hasn’t done anything to stand out as the Jets have had to navigate injuries and ineffectiveness in their offense. Perine could see solid work this week, but ultimately, it is too risky to play him above other options that could see more touches.

Damiere Byrd (WR, NE)

After running hot between Weeks 2 and 4, Damiere Byrd has settled back into a lesser role for the Patriots. Byrd hasn’t seen more than four targets since Week 4 and while he has caught three passes twice in the last three weeks, he hasn’t eclipsed 40 yards receiving during that period. Hopefully, for the Patriots, Cam Newton can return to his pre-COVID form and give Damiere Byrd some upside and ability to rack up yards after the catch. A reason for optimism for the small receiver: he has played in at least 86% of the offensive snaps in every game he has played this season. Byrd should only be utilized in cases of complete desperation.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)

After being a training camp darling in 2019, Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a legitimate wide receiver in the Patriots offense thanks to injuries to N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman. In Weeks 7 and 8, Meyers saw 116 targets, catching 10 passes for 118 yards. More importantly, he has logged 79% and 98% of the offense's snaps, behind only Damiere Byrd as the most for the Patriots receivers. As long as N’Keal Harry is out, Meyers has a role in this offense and has fantasy upside.

Braxton Berrios (WR, NYJ)

If Jamison Crowder is unable to go, then Braxton Berrios once again has upside as the Jets slot receiver. In the last two games for New York Berrios has caught 12 of 18 targets for 69 yards. This syncs up with his role during Crowder's injury earlier in the season as well. Berrios is very explosive with the ball in his hands, but his playability comes from Jamison Crowder’s availability this week. If Crowder plays, Berrios shouldn’t. If Crowder is out though, feel free to fire up Berrios in his stead against the Patriots Defense if you are desperate.

Denzel Mims (WR, NYJ)

I was admittedly one of the many fantasy analysts who thought Denzel Mims was poised for a breakout game against the Chiefs. The Jets looked to need to play catch up and would have to air the ball out. After an opening drive that saw Mims collect two catches for 42 yards, I was ready to tout myself… and then he didn’t catch another ball all game. Mims has now six catches on 10 targets for 84 yards on the season after missing the early games with a hamstring injury. Encouragingly enough, Mims was on the field for 96% of the Jets snaps in Week 8 and ran a route on 30 pass attempts. If Perriman and Crowder are limited again, then Mims could use his unique size and speed combination to have a big day, but he carries considerable risk heading into Week 9 against the Patriots.

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Start/Sit Advice