X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

One Last Mock! ADP Values and Reaches

Mock draft results from the final week of the 2020 MLB preseason. Pierre Camus reviews RotoBaller's final fantasy baseball mock to find draft values and reaches based on ADP.

As the sun prepares to rise on the 2020 MLB season (I'm all about hopeful metaphors these days), it also marks the end of draft season for fantasy baseball. This weekend will see a flurry of activity from fantasy league owners trying to figure out how to properly value players amid a global pandemic. Good luck with that.

We at RotoBaller have been doing our part to help during the entire, painfully long offseason. This includes constantly updated rankings, specifically detailed analysis on how to approach the shortened season, and key sleepers to target. Of course, there are all the other goodies included in our Draft Kit too.

All of this went into practice as the RotoBaller staff conducted one final mock draft for the 2020 fantasy baseball season. The idea wasn't to focus on roster construction but to look for ADP outliers. Many players have seen their value shift dramatically in recent days. Let's see who climbed or fell the most in our analysts' eyes.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Final 2020 Mock Draft Board


 

The New IL

This exercise would be futile if we didn't address the obvious situation. Many Major League players have tested positive for coronavirus and have either been placed on the Injured List or not reported to camp. Since MLB clubs inexplicably don't have to identify whether a player has COVID or not, we are left to guess in many cases. Thankfully, some key names are already known. Here are the main players relevant to 12-team leagues or smaller that have been confirmed to have COVID.

Player Team Position Pick NFBC ADP
Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves 1B 34 26
Charlie Blackmon Colorado Rockies OF 47 63
Tommy Pham San Diego Padres OF 72 96
Tyler Glasnow Tampa Bay Rays SP/RP 74 69
Kenley Jansen Los Angeles Dodgers RP 85 84
Yoan Moncada Chicago White Sox 3B 87 70
Joey Gallo Texas Rangers OF 96 100
Aroldis Chapman New York Yankees RP 98 78
DJ LeMahieu New York Yankees 1B/2B 108 72
Jesus Luzardo Oakland A's SP 118 105
Eduardo Rodriguez Boston Red Sox SP 125 167
Miguel Sano Minnesota Twins 1B/3B 154 126
Will Smith Atlanta Braves RP 160 185
Scott Kingery Philadelphia Phillies 2B/3B/SS/OF 173 168
Salvador Perez Kansas City Royals C 216 162

In some cases, our analysts' views of a player reflected that of high-stakes players. A player who was diagnosed early on and is expected to return in time for the season with little setback, such as Scott Kingery, will see a negligible effect. Players who tested positive more recently, such as Aroldis Chapman, may see a bigger drop on draft day.

 

Early-Round Positional Breakdown

Unsurprisingly, there were few surprises in the first couple of rounds. Mike Trout going fourth actually feels early to me based on playing time concerns. Fernando Tatis Jr. as a first-rounder probably doesn't happen in most 12-team leagues, but Scott "The King" Engel wanted his guy at the turn since he knew he'd be long gone by the end of round three.

I stuck by my rankings and grabbed Gerrit Cole at sixth overall before following up with Jack Flaherty in round three and Patrick Corbin in round six. Starting pitchers went at a rate equivalent to NFBC ADP over the past two weeks, with nine SP selected within the first 30 picks and 15 SP selected within the first 50 picks.

Relievers were not an emphasis, as only Josh Hader and Kirby Yates were targeted by our participants. The fact that this league used SV+HLD (as all season-long leagues playing in 2020 should) didn't particularly skew the results other than later on when setup men like Emilio Pagan, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Barnes, and Dellin Betances were picked.

Here is the positional breakdown after the first 50 picks:

Position # Selected
SP 15
OF 11
SS 6
3B 6
2B 6
1B 3
RP 2
DH 1
C 0

 

Draft Reaches Relative to ADP

Pete Alonso was taken at 22 overall, which is 11 spots higher than his NFBC ADP and 12 spots higher than our RotoBaller consensus rankings. Around this range, the focus is typically on grabbing the few remaining aces. Case in point - in this round, five pitchers were taken. Perhaps Alonso would have been available in another round, but the fact that Freddie Freeman is on IL makes an already-thin first base position even thinner, which could explain this pick. Any hitter who relies primarily on the long ball is at risk of being a bust, especially in this 60-game season where the separation in categories won't be as pronounced.

Charlie Blackmon is usually a rock-solid source of average, power, runs, and RBI. The speed is gone, so we can't call him an all-category contributor anymore, unfortunately. ATC projects him to steal exactly one base this year. The real issue with Blackmon is that he was one of the first MLB stars to be officially diagnosed with COVID. That has left him out of summer camp and landed him on the IL. The good news is that he has been cleared to resume playing and has been training on his own, which has brought optimism that he will be ready for Opening Day. That could make Blackmon a sneaky bargain, but that is only if he is taken around or after his ADP of 63. Before the season was suspended, Blackmon was being selected around pick 42 on average, so maybe we should view Blackmon in a different light.

Jorge Soler has lived just outside the top 100 in terms of ADP all offseason. Scott claimed him at pick 71, reaching about 30 spots to grab the Cuban slugger. While Soler broke out in his age-27 season with 48 HR, 117 RBI, and a .922 OPS, he is the type of hitter that should draw red flags in a shortened season. He still has high swing-and-miss tendencies, posting a 13.2% Swinging Strike rate in 2019. He won't post a high-enough average to carry him through a slump or prolonged power surge, if one should occur. Soler did increase his xSLG as the year went on, not slumping or trailing off in the second half with his power numbers except for a slight dip versus offspeed pitches.

It's possible that pitchers feed him fewer fastballs but that alone isn't reason to fade him. The concern that a short season makes him less valuable based on a pronounced advantage in one category is the concern. Coming off a career year, Soler still has the talent to be among the HR leaders but the risk of a fall-off is too real to reach for him this soon.

Our man Kev made a point of grabbing the pitcher version of Shohei Ohtani with the 113th pick. I know this because during the draft he accidentally made a different pick and wanted to roll it back to get Ohtani instead. He probably could have waited a round or two, as his current ADP sits at 130. Ohtani did benefit from the delay in order to fully recover from UCL surgery, which means we could see him taken closer to his March ADP of 115. Truth be told, he might have been better off forsaking the pick altogether.

Ohtani is always going to be on an innings/start limit based on his usage. He joins a six-man rotation and will not be stretched out in order to preserve his health and bat. As far as performance, he has the stuff to be a frontline starter but just won't put up the counting stats to do so in fantasy. Nicklaus Gaut shows Ohtani to be one of the most overpriced pitchers when comparing ADP to ATC Projections. In particular, the fact that this mock was set for QS instead of wins might hurt Ohtani's stock, unless you are optimistic that he will be left in for six innings or more each time out.

 

Draft Bargains Relative to ADP

Lucas Giolito made an incredible turnaround from 2018 to 2019, cutting his ERA by more than two and a half runs while doubling his strikeout rate to 32.3%, good for fourth among qualified starters. Everything in his profile suggests he is now a frontline starting pitcher and second-tier fantasy SP, but there is still skepticism. Ariel Cohen recently told me that he does not view Giolito as the type of player he would target early on based on his ADP, nor will he take a step forward to full-fledged ace status. He may have been pleased to see Giolito taken with the 60th pick instead then, a full 15 spots lower than he's going in NFBC. Giolito also feels safer than Trevor Bauer or Mike Soroka, who were taken immediately after him.

If Pete Alonso went so early, why did Matt Olson go so late? He's seen his ADP climb to 49 as the fourth first baseman in NFBC. In our mock, he was there at 69 as the eighth 1B-eligible player off the board. This is probably truer to his actual value. Olson has tremendous power and could still be growing as a hitter, but he only hit .267 last year and scored 73 runs despite hitting in the heart of the A's lineup. Fantasy owners have been reaching for him as a top-50 player but our analysts did well to let him slide. He's a safe asset to secure before the talent level really drops off at the position, although I still don't understand why Josh Bell is being taken even later. I mean, the Pirates can't be that bad can they?

The optimism around Aaron Judge keeps growing. There is no doubt that the long delay has allowed him to rest and recover. Yankee fans can't be more stoked to see him taking BP these days. Can't say I blame them.

Of course, just as we get word that he might be ready for Opening Day, Judge woke up with neck stiffness and was held out of the most recent intrasquad game. Judge says he will keep playing the game hard, which is what you want to hear as a fan but also not what you want to hear as a fantasy owner. Judge, like his brittle teammate Giancarlo Stanton, will always be at risk for injury. If he falls outside the top 75 like he did in this draft, pull the trigger and hope for the best.

Tim Anderson at 121 seems criminal. The reigning AL batting champ is usually a slam-dunk top-100 pick, going at 89 overall in NFBC these days. Sure, he's not a fan of the walk and may see regression in his .399 BABIP, but he also brings power and speed to the table and is a legit five-cat contributor who could see a sharp drop from last year and still bat over .300. In fact, his profile compares favorably to Fernando Tatis Jr., who is a top-20 pick everywhere.

Name PA HR R RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ADP
Fernando Tatis Jr. 227 11 35 29 19 64 9 0.275 0.342 0.504 0.846 17.5
Tim Anderson 226 7 31 26 8 51 8 0.278 0.307 0.445 0.752 95.7

Tatis has more power, but aside from a couple of HR, their roto profile is eerily similar. In points leagues, obviously Anderson takes a big step back due to his lesser plate discipline. In 5x5 leagues, the discount for Anderson seems worth waiting on. Plus, he looks to be in midseason form already, launching three homers in intrasquad games this past week. Let people keep doubting him and take advantage.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!




More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chris Godwin

to Be Limited in His Return Thursday
Brock Purdy

Out 2-5 Weeks With Turf Toe
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Kyle Monangai

to See More Carries Going Forward?
Quinshon Judkins

Plans to Practice Thursday
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Christian McCaffrey

Absent from Wednesday's Practice
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With Back Tightness
Dallas Goedert

Questionable for Week 2 at Chiefs
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Jadeveon Clowney

Visiting With the Cowboys on Wednesday
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Christian Watson

Agrees to One-Year Contract Extension
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
Kyle Stowers

Dealing With Strained Side
Kyle Tucker

Placed on Injured List With Calf Strain
Jauan Jennings

Considered Day-to-Day, has a Chance to Play in Week 2
Jalen Carter

Receives One-Game Suspension, Will be Eligible for Week 2
Bo Bichette

Goes on Injured List With Knee Sprain
George Kittle

Placed on Injured Reserve
Tyreek Hill

Accused of Domestic Violence
Jauan Jennings

Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury
Garrett Crochet

Shuts Out the Athletics
Royce Lewis

Launches Two Homers Monday Night
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
New York Knicks

Malcolm Brogdon on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
Max Muncy

Batting Cleanup in Return to Dodgers
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Younghoe Koo

Falcons Auditioning Kickers, Could Replace Younghoe Koo
Denver Broncos

Sean Payton Says Broncos Need to be Better With Run-Pass Balance
Tank Bigsby

Eagles Acquiring Tank Bigsby From Jaguars on Monday
George Kittle

Likely Out 3-5 Weeks, Could Land on Injured Reserve
Chase Burns

to be Activated on Friday
Brock Purdy

Dealing With Multiple Injuries, Could Miss Week 2
Tyler Glasnow

Cleared to Start on Monday
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on Concussion Injured List
Christian Yelich

Returning on Monday
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Brock Bowers

Considered Day-to-Day With Knee Injury
Jonathan Taylor

is "Good" After Taking a Hit to his Neck in Week 1
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Rhys McKee

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Axel Sola

Successful In His UFC Debut
Robert Ruchała

Robert Ruchala Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
William Gomis

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP