X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for ERA-xERA (Week 19)

dylan bundy fantasy baseball rankings starting pitchers draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose ERA-xERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 19.

Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.

I wrote about expected ERA (xERA) in Week 10; xERA is a 1:1 translation of Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA), converted to the ERA scale. Like any expected metric, comparing it to the actual metric gives an indication of relative over or underperformance for players.

This exercise is great for identifying buy-low and sell-high fantasy pitchers. The fantasy playoffs are quickly approaching, but there is still a month and a half of the season left for regression to take place. Let's identify some pitchers who may see that in their ERA! 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

ERA-xERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 14, 2022.

Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
3-6, 4.15 ERA, 2.97 xERA, 1.18 ERA-xERA

Alex Cobb's peripheral numbers have lagged behind his underlying stats for much of the season, and his ERA has been no different. His 4.15 ERA and 1.29 WHIP are mediocre, but his xERA is over a run lower than his current ERA. Cobb is currently rostered in just 36 percent of leagues, but is there enough time for fantasy managers to experience the potential regression?

I am frankly very surprised that Cobb is still so widely available. Even a quick look at his profile shows the signs of an above-average pitcher, as indicated by all the red in his Statcast profile. He has managed to keep the ball on the ground with a 0.0-degree launch angle while still posting a respectable 25.3% strikeout rate, thanks to relying on a split-finger fastball (44.3% usage) and a sinker (42.6% usage).

Additionally, he has already clearly started to experience that regression. Cobb has compiled a much-better 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 29.8% strikeout rate in his five starts since the All-Star break. This is even more encouraging given the fact that his 2.76 SIERA over those starts indicates that he was still getting a bit unlucky in his results over that time.

Fantasy managers will likely have to make some last-minute trades to gain impact fantasy players on their teams at this point in the season. The fact that a pitcher of Cobb's caliber is so widely available at this time is crazy to me but offers a fantastic opportunity for fantasy managers. I consider Cobb to be a strong buy-low candidate and it appears that fantasy managers won't even have to trade for him.

Dylan Bundy, Minnesota Twins
6-5, 4.76 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 0.90 ERA-xERA

Dylan Bundy has has a disappointing career overall from a fantasy perspective, but he has been valuable at times. On paper, this season has not been one of them, as he has managed a lackluster 4.76 ERA through 20 starts with the Twins. However, his 3.86 xERA suggests that he could outperform those paper numbers by a decent mark for the rest of the season. Could Bundy be a worthwhile streamer for fantasy managers down the stretch?

Bundy's underlying metrics are not as cut and dry as some of the other guys in this article. The issue for Bundy has been home runs, which has been an issue for him in the past. His 1.37 HR/9 rate could be attributed to the hard contact he has allowed with an 18.2-degree launch angle. His 4.32 SIERA seems to reflect this more than his xERA.

Walks haven't been an issue for Bundy at a 5.0% clip, so he would likely be able to last at least five innings per start if he could get those HR in order.

Some of Bundy's underlying numbers are more encouraging than others. Ultimately, his batted-ball profile has hurt him, although his xERA suggests it may not be as big of a deal as the peripherals suggest. To me, the batted-ball profile and peripheral results align too much for me to take a flyer on Bundy except in deeper leagues and in very favorable matchups.

 

ERA-xERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 14, 2022.

Cole Irvin, Oakland Athletics
6-9, 2.92 ERA, 4.23 xERA, -1.31 ERA-xERA

Cole Irvin has been an impactful fantasy pitcher this season despite playing on one of baseball's worst teams. He hasn't helped much in terms of strikeouts but has compiled a stellar 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 20 starts. Fantasy managers are buying in, as his 61 percent rostership is almost twice that of Cobb's. However, his 4.23 xERA is much worse than his current ERA. Should fantasy managers continue to trust him down the stretch?

While it is always possible that players will exceed their projected numbers over the course of an entire season, I would still be uneasy about trusting Irvin in the fantasy playoffs. Unlike Cobb, most of Irvin's Statcast profile is very blue. He has gotten strong results despite allowing hard contact with a 14.7-degree launch angle.

Irvin has managed to last just over six innings pitched per start, which has somewhat helped him in terms of strikeouts totals. However, he relies primarily on underwhelming fastballs, which he has left in the middle of the plate. As such, I am not surprised by his 17.2% strikeout rate and would not be surprised to see him run into some short outings over the course of the rest of the season.

I feel almost as strongly that Irvin is a sell-high candidate as I am that Cobb is a buy-low candidate. Irvin has gotten solid results while pitching deeper into games, but most underlying signs point to him being the beneficiary of luck. He has allowed hard contact in the air while not striking many out.

This seems to be a recipe for disappointment in fantasy. Again, there is the chance that Irvin can finish out the season with strong numbers, but I would rather trade him for more proven, reliable fantasy options.

Johnny Cueto, Chicago White Sox
4-5, 2.91 ERA, 4.06 xERA, -1.15 ERA-xERA

Johnny Cueto was a fantasy stud for a good chunk of his career, and while his last several seasons have not been to that standard, he seems to have recaptured some of it this season. The crafty veteran has compiled a 2.91 ERA over 15 starts while averaging almost 6 1/2 inning per start. However, his 4.06 xERA suggests he maybe hasn't recaptured his old magic and he is currently rostered in just 51 percent of leagues. Could Cueto be more of an asset or a liability for fantasy managers the rest of the way?

Cueto is interesting because he has done a decent job keeping hitters off balance. He has thrown five pitches at least 14 percent of the time and varies his delivery. Consequently, his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both slightly above average with a 12-degree launch angle despite not having overpowering stuff. He has also done a good job limiting walks with a 5.6% walk rate.

The thing that could hurt Cueto is the amount of contact he allows. As I mentioned, his batted-ball profile is fine, but his 84.8% contact rate would be the highest among qualified starters if he were eligible. As such, he has a 1.22 WHIP and a .292 BABIP which is above his career mark of .284. His ERA shows that all those hits haven't hurt him, but his xERA indicates that they may.

Cueto is no longer a flashy fantasy option, but he does still have something to offer. He has allowed a lot of hits but has managed to navigate the traffic and pitch deep into games, which creates more opportunities to earn wins for fantasy managers. The hits and lack of strikeouts obviously limit his fantasy value in all leagues, but I think he offers a solid floor in points leagues and could continue to provide that, even if a few more of those hits turn into runs.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge