MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/20/2025)

May 20, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/20/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Brent Rooker, Zach Neto, Brandon Lowe, and more.

We have a full slate of MLB action today. Our focus today will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that is due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions. We're sticking to just two spots tonight, but it should make for some fun games to watch.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/20/2025)

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, May 20:

• Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
• Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
• Brent Rooker, Athletics
• Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels

Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I'm having to make a pivot here as I originally wanted Brandon Lowe from the Rays at home, but the Astros have switched up their projected starter and are now sending left-hander Brandon Walter to the bump.

Another venue besides Tampa that should have some favorable hitting conditions is in St. Louis, where it's going to be warm and humid with winds blowing out to right field around 12 to 15 mph.

That bodes well for these Detroit lefties, such as Carpenter, Riley Greene, Colt Keith, and even Trey Sweeney. The Tigers are facing right-handed veteran Erick Fedde, who limps into this matchup with a 5.13 xFIP against LHH. He doesn't miss many bats with just a 14.8% K% and 6.8% SwStr%.

Carpenter should lead off for the Tigers and is 2-2 against Fedde in his career with a home run. He's been aggressive at the plate this year, so look for him to attack any sinkers or sliders in his wheelhouse early in the count. Carp has a short, powerful stroke and can turn around pitches on the inner-half, so Fedde will have very little margin for error tonight.

Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are going to simplify the process here a bit for Isaac Paredes tonight. The hitting environment is phenomenal, as mentioned above, and we will delve into the matchup; however, Parades in 2025 has been the best home run hitter for this Astros team.

Zack Littell has been one of the best, if not the best, targets in 2025 when looking for the long ball, especially when he is pitching at home like he is tonight. Littell has allowed 13 HR already in 2025. He has allowed six to lefties and seven to righties. Both splits hit him neutral.

Isaac Paredes flips this game upside down!

His 3-run homer gives the @Astros the lead 💥 #RivalryWeekend pic.twitter.com/96bL8X9R3t

— MLB (@MLB) May 18, 2025

Paredes, as mentioned above, has been the best bat in this lineup against right-hand pitching. He has a .385 wOBA and a .181 ISO against the split this season. Over his last 30 PA, he has a .389 wOBA and a .346 ISO against right-hand pitching. Sometimes, it's okay to slow the process down and click on the easy names. Paredes is that guy tonight.

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Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyle Hendricks will bring his soft-tossing noodle arm to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, home of the Athletics. It will be in the mid-eighties tonight with a five to 10-mile-per-hour wind blowing out to the center. This is an elite hitting environment with warm temperatures in another minor league park.

Kyle Hendricks has struggled mightily in 2025. He has a 5.17 xFIP, a 6.4% SwStr, 1.51 HR/9, and a 44.2% FB rate. He has allowed a 4.3% SwStr over his last two starts with a 1.64 HR/9 and a 42.9% FB. He is not missing any bats and is pitching off of weaker contact with a 24.0% Hard Hit.

Hendricks has allowed a ton of power to right-handed hitters. He has allowed a .234 ISO, 46.8% FB, and a .468 SLG to righties in 2025. Six of his seven home runs have been hit by righties this season against Hendricks.

Hendricks has allowed a ton of power off two pitches in particular. Now, these two pieces are only 35% off his arsenal for righties, but in addition to all the things mentioned above, there is another aspect to consider. He has allowed a .269 ISO and a .462 SLG against his four-seamer this season and a .583 ISO and 1.000 SLG against his curveball.

There is one hitter in this lineup who is a perfect profile in this spot, and that is Rooker. Rooker swings and misses a ton, but Hendricks does not miss bats. Rooker will make contact against Hendricks, and that is good news for our home run bets.

Rooker has a .302 wOBA and a .168 ISO against right-hand pitching in 2025. He has seven home runs in 2025, which leads all right-handed hitters for the Athletics. Rooker checks two of the boxes for Hendricks, but the last box is how he profiles against the aforementioned four-seamers and curveballs.

• Four Seamer: 23 Pitches, .909 wOBA, 1.000 ISO, 30 LA, 1 HR
• Curveball: 35 Pitches, .744 wOBA, .600 ISO, 28 LA, 1 HR
• Arm Angle: 149 Pitches, .405 wOBA, .290 ISO, 22 LA, 2 HRs

Sign me up for Rooker as my top home run bet of the night.

Zach Neto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook)

We will stick to another bet in the same game environment. This time, we will be attacking the Athletics' starting pitcher, Gunnar Hoglund. Zach Neto is on a tear right now, and we are going to ride a hot hand.

Zach Neto (7) - Los Angeles Angels
425 feet pic.twitter.com/Ydx3FAPpvS

— MLB Home Run Clips (@HRClipsMLB) May 18, 2025

Neto, as mentioned above, is red hot. Over his last 41 plate appearances against right-hand pitchers, he has a .421 wOBA, .324 ISO, and a .987 OPS. He has three home runs during that span. Neto has a .386 wOBA and a .247 ISO against right-hand pitching in 2025.

Hoglund is another perfect target for the long ball. He has allowed a 2.16 HR/9, 38.0% FB, and a 36.0% hard-hit rate in 2025. He has a 5.06 ERA and a 2.53 HR/9 over his last two starts. Hoglund gets hammered by right-hand hitters. He has allowed a .472 wOBA, .296 ISO, and a 50.0% hard-hit rate against righties.

Hoglund has gotten hit hard in particular by two pitches from right-hand hitters. His four-seamer and his slider/sweeper. His four-seamer has allowed a .407 SLG and a .259 ISO, and the slider/sweeper has allowed a .727 SLG and a .364 ISO. Not only does Neto match all the profiles of Hoglund, but he also crushes those two pitches, which are 70% of his arsenal.

• Four Seamer: 27 Pitches, .605 wOBA, .857 ISO, 38 LA, 2 HRs
• Slider/Sweeper: 31 Pitches: .439 wOBA, .429 ISO, 22 LA, 1 HR

The combination of Neto and Rooker will bring us home tonight.

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