MLB DFS Playoff Slate In Depth Analysis for 10/8/21 (Premium Content)

MLB DFS Premium Cheatsheet for 10/8

 

We have one of the few four-game slates we'll see during these playoffs, which makes the game a little bit easier to play. All remaining teams are in action tonight, and there is a lot to like. I'll share some data reports here and then go game-by-game highlighting some spots to possibly take advantage of.

The playoffs are always a little bit more fun with some DFS action in play, so let's try to help you win on this short slate.

 

Pitcher Report

Atypical pricing on these short slates, with Corbin Burnes leading the way at just $9,100 on DraftKings and a lower than usual $10,400 on FanDuel. You also have two pretty nice "punt" options in Chris Sale and Shane Baz, although that doesn't necessarily make them good plays. We'll talk more about these guys in the game-by-games.

In the meantime, here's the bullpen report. This chart takes the available bullpen arms and calculates their collective statistics and shows them here. Note that these bullpen rosters might not be exactly correct, as some teams may be moving a starter to the bullpen for these playoff series. Because of this, I've left the pitchers that were used in the calculations displayed on the right, so if you see that I definitely missed somebody consequential you can take these numbers less seriously.

Bullpen Report

Unsurprisingly, these teams all have strong bullpens. The Red Sox and Braves are the worst of the bunch with slugging percentages above .330 and PA/HR under 40, but those are still pretty darn strong numbers.

DraftKings points averages:

league average: 7.01

league average: 13.4

 

White Sox (Lucas Giolito) vs. Houston Astros (Framber Valdez)

Giolito: You could make the case that the Astros lineup is in the best spot tonight. Giolito's 3.53 ERA is the worst mark of the starters going today, and his 30 PA/HR is one of the more exploitable numbers as well. In terms of playing Giolito as a pitcher, I would be running away from that idea given this Astros' lineup's 17% collective strikeout rate. They just don't allow starting pitchers to score fantasy points against them. You can see from the chart above that the Astros allowed just 10.8 DraftKings points to starters on average, only the Blue Jays were better this year than the Astros in that regard.

 

Valdez: This is a better matchup, but a worse fantasy pitcher. Valdez's 22% strikeout rate is the worst mark on the board today. Here's how he performed his year in terms of DraftKings points scored:

You can see a handful of splash games there, but he was mostly a guy scoring in the teens. It is important to note that starting pitcher scoring will be depressed in the playoffs as teams are much quicker on the trigger to go to the bullpen, so an 18 or so from Valdez just do just fine, however, the floor is very low for a guy so few strikeouts. The low whiff total does come with a high ground-ball rate, which helps him avoid the blow-up start. You can see there that he got into double-digit fantasy points in every start but one after July 23rd. I don't think I'll be going here, but I would be a little bit higher on Valdez than Giolito.

 

Astros offense

 Lucas Giolito splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.328	38.3	28%
vs. RHB	.397	20.7	28%

Four game slates are weird, and especially so in the playoffs. It's hard to speak with tons of confidence because of that, but the Astros do seem a step above the rest of the offenses on the board. You can see that righties actually had a bit more success against Giolito this year. I would have most of the Astros lineup on my list, but Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker were the best hitters in that lineup this year in terms of fantasy points scored per PA. Michael Brantley doesn't hit home runs (63.4 PA/HR), but he's awful cheap ($3,400/$2,400) for someone hitting in the two-hole here.

 

White Sox offense

Framber Valdez splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.305	31.7	27%
vs. RHB	.284	52.9	21%

It's just so hard to get behind hitters facing a guy with a 70% ground-ball rate. Valdez gave up just 12 homers in his 134.2 innings this year. The optimal way to play DFS, especially on DraftKings, is to fish for the home runs, and the White Sox are undoubtedly the worst lineup to going fishing in today. Being a left-hander, it's also tough to steal bases off of Valdez. Opponents stole just nine bases in games started by Valdez this year, averaging a low 5.1 DraftKings points.

If I'm going anywhere here it will probably be to go Eloy Jimenez because of the price tag ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD).

Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes)

Charlie Morton: Morton was tough on hitters this year. He did not allow many homers and kept the ball on the ground while still racking up a pretty nice strikeout rate. He also gets one of the better matchups on the slate against a Brewers team that won most of their games with pitching. Their lineup has a collective .392 SLG and a 27.6 PA/HR, respectable numbers but near the bottom of the board on this slate. At $7,800 on DraftKings, Morton is very much in play.

Corbin Burnes: I'm not completely sure how a guy can throw 167 innings and end the year with a 36% K%, a 5% BB%, and a 94 PA/HR. That is just pure dominance. The Braves offense is a good one with a high 22 PA/HR and a .423 SLG, but those numbers don't matter too much against a guy that has been this stinking tough. If you were hoping that maybe Burnes' has slowed down late in the year after he's exceeded his previous career-high in innings, you'd be wrong. From August 1 onwards, he posted a 35% K%, a 3.6% BB%, and a 78 PA/HR. See ya later! I'm locking in Burnes and full-fading the Braves.

 

Brewers Offense

Charlie Morton splits

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.258	51.0	32%
vs. RHB	.289	44.2	25%

The Brewers are insanely cheap, which means we probably want to dip our toes in here even against Morton. There is, of course, good reason for the cheap prices - the Brewers just don't have many good [fantasy] hitters. Willy Adames was the only hitter on their team to post a DraftKings points per PA above 2 (I would consider 1.9 and above "good", and anything above two "very good"). He hit .285 and slugged .521 with the Brewers, although those numbers fall to .270 and .482 when you look at August and beyond. Avisal Garcia was their only other DFS-worthy hitter this year with a 1.99 DK Pts/PA while hitting 29 homers in 515 PA. I'd consider both of those names for cheap, but I'm not thrilled about either of them against Morton.

 

Braves Offense

Corbin Burnes splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.281	114	35%
vs. RHB	.225	78.8	36%

Just don't do it.

Boston Red Sox (Chris Sale) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Shane Baz)

Chris Sale: Showing up quite late, Sale threw just 42.2 innings this year. He got his strikeout rate up to 28% after a pretty slow start, and encouragingly he limited walks very well. He didn't really contribute too much in from DraftKings points perspective however:

You can see some pretty disappointing totals overall there. He reached six innings just once in his nine starts and gave up 45 hits in 42.2 innings. The angle pointing towards playing him would be the fact that these are the playoffs now and the Red Sox should be more likely to let him get deep into the game if he's pitching well. He also encouragingly racked up 21 strikeouts in his final 12.2 innings. And the last piece of good news is that the Rays are arguably the best matchup on the slate as told by the chart at the top of this post. It's a little bit risky, but the price and strikeout upside are very appealing on Sale.

 

Shane Baz: I don't know how you can go here after we saw just 13.1 innings out of Baz this year, those being his first 13.1 Major League innings ever. Now he's thrown into a playoff series against the Red Sox lineup. He did strike out 18 batters in that time while walking just three, so there's definite upside here, but I don't see him getting too deep into this game unless he's really mowing them down.

 

Red Sox Offense

Shane Baz splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.444	18.0	39%
vs. RHB	.258	15.5	33%

This is an extremely limited sample size here, so we can't read too much into those numbers above. It does *seem* like Baz is prone to give up the long ball, but he gave up exact one homer per nine innings in this minors this year, so we shouldn't feel overly confident about that. I'd be willing to play some Red Sox power hitters, which basically means 67% of the lineup. Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, and Bobby Dalbec are all guys that can post big DraftKings totals in a hurry.

From August 1st on, Bobby Dalbec posted a slate-leading 2.57 DraftKings points per PA, making him a very appealing upside option if he's in the lineup.

 

Rays Offense

Chris Sale splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.192	INF	31%
vs. RHB	.417	26.0	28%

Righties only unless you're fishing for some damage against the bullpen (which is a reasonable thing to do in the playoffs, I suppose!). That means Randy Arozarena, Nelson Cruz, Wander Franco, and Mike Zunino 24% barrel rate!!!! against lefties) for me. You could punt with Jordan Luplow or Manuel Margot as well if you need to save some money and want to do it with the Rays.

Los Angeles Dogers (Walker Buehler) vs. San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb)

Walker Buehler: Buehler was one of the best fantasy pitchers in the league this year in terms of raw scoring. He threw 207.2 innings, which lots of people thought he wouldn't be able to attempt to do. However, on a per-inning basis, he was more good than elite. He finished with a relatively lackluster 26% strikeout rate but did limit walks (6.4%) and homers (43 PA/HR). He made six starts against the Giants, a crazy high number, and averaged 20.3 DraftKings points in those starts. That average is impressive given that they put a -8 on him on September 5th, by far his worst start of the year. He went over 25 three times and above 30 twice. I much prefer Burnes, but Buehler is in the conversation.

 

Logan Webb: Despite the lower than desired 26.5% strikeout rate, Webb averaged a strong 18.9 DraftKings points per start. In three starts against the Dodgers, that number was 19.8. He went for 27, 14, and 19 against them, last facing them on July 27th. His calling card was the ground-ball with a 61 GB% and a 66 PA/HR. I don't want to play Webb as a pitcher, but it's tough to recommend hitters against him as well.

 

Dodgers offense:

Logan Webb splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.325	73.0	23%
vs. RHB	..283	60.8	30%

As mentioned, it's very tough to score DraftKings points against Webb. Of course, that is true with every pitcher pitching today, and we have to pick somebody! Trea Turner was an elite DraftKings points scorer all year, but especially so with the Dodgers. He hit .338 with a .565 SLG and a 14.6% K% after joining his new team, going for a super-elite 2.38 DraftKings points per PA. AJ Pollock (2.36) and Corey Seager (2.21) were also in the elite range after the trade deadline, so there are certainly guys you can go to on this Dodgers lineup.

 

Giants offense:

Walker Buehler splits:

Split	SLG	PA/HR	K%
vs. LHB	.299	46.9	24%
vs. RHB	.307	39.1	28%

The Giants won a bajillion games this year, and looking at the overall stats you wouldn't have expected that. They really don't have any stand-out hitters, just a bunch of guys who are very solid. Brandon Crawford was awesome this year with a 2.15 DK points per PA, but he's the only hitter in this projected lineup that exceeded the threshold of two. With Buehler on the mound, I'm really not gung-ho about any Giants today. If I had to pick one, I'd probably go towards Steven Duggar at just $2,400/$2,000.

 

Price-Considered Pitcher Ranks

1. Corbin Burnes
2. Charlie Morton
3. Walker Buehler
4. Chris Sale
5. Framber Valdez
6. Logan Webb
7. Shane Baz
8. Lucas Giolito

Offense Ranks

1. Astros
2. Red Sox
3. Dodgers
4. Rays
5. Giants
6. White Sox
7. Brewers
8. Braves

Favorite Expensive Bats

Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz, Corey Seager

 

Favorite Value Bats

Eloy Jimenez, Bobby Dalbec, AJ Pollock, Manuel Margot, Steven Duggar, Lorenzo Cain, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia

 

Please note that these are sample lineups designed only to show how you might use the above lineup picks in your own lineup. You should always check the weather and lineups before they lock to ensure players you are choosing are playing tonight.