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Free daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for today's slate on DraftKings, FanDuel. Use Kevin's MLB DFS expert picks to build winning DFS lineups on June 30, 2024.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another interesting DFS slate. It's a beautiful afternoon for baseball, and it could be made much better with a tournament takedown. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix offers us a few reliable aces alongside some riskier midrange and punt-priced arms, undoubtedly leading to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative on today's nine-game main slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/30/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Garrett Crochet vs. Colorado Rockies ($10.2K DK, $10.9K FD)
This slate has a few ace-caliber names, but Garrett Crochet is the best option for DFS purposes. Through 17 starts, he sports a phenomenal 2.37 xERA and a 2.40 xFIP. Crochet has absolutely shut down opposing hitters, surrendering just a .190 xBA, .246 xwOBA, 87.6 MPH average exit velocity, and a 36.1% hard-hit rate. That's reason enough to like rostering him today, but it doesn't even cover the best part. Crochet is striking out 34.9% of hitters this season alongside a 32.6% whiff rate. He is capable of double-digit punchouts any time he takes the mound.
Garrett Crochet, 98mph and 99mph ⛽️⛽️ pic.twitter.com/jERSBygQFv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 25, 2024
Crochet draws a very favorable matchup with the Colorado Rockies today. The Rockies' overall numbers are a little juiced up by the fact they play half their games at the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field, but their 3.6 runs per game average on the road exposes a truly abysmal offense. Colorado's struggles include a weak 92 wRC+ against left-handed pitching with a generous 24.4% strikeout rate.
Taj Bradley vs. Washington Nationals ($8.2K DK, $9.5K FD)
Taj Bradley is another pitcher with a fantastic ceiling, albeit with considerably more volatility. His trademark fantasy contribution is his strikeouts, punching out 29.6% of hitters alongside an outstanding 28.1% whiff rate. Like Crochet, Bradley is always capable of approaching double-digit strikeouts. Unlike Crochet, it wouldn't be terribly surprising to see Bradley get touched up. His 3.81 ERA is solid on the surface, though his underlying numbers suggest he has been somewhat lucky. All the same, Bradley's risk is worth the reward.
Bradley will benefit from a matchup against a mediocre Washington Nationals lineup. They are plating just 4.1 runs per game on the year. Their struggles include a weak 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .137 ISO and a .301 wOBA. Lane Thomas and CJ Abrams are names that can do some damage, but the Nationals lineup is otherwise very underwhelming.
Also Consider: Ranger Suarez, Freddy Peralta, Hunter Greene, Matt Waldron
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC vs. Logan Allen ($6.4K DK, $4.3K FD)
Bobby Witt Jr. warrants little introduction. The 24-year-old sports an outstanding .307/.359/.525 slash line with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 144 wRC+. Witt's success includes some incredible underlying metrics, such as a .593 xSLG, .319 xBA, 14.9% barrel rate, 49.5% hard-hit rate, and a 92.7 MPH average exit velocity. There is a case to be made that Witt is due for positive regression.
Logan Allen will be a preferred pitcher to target against on this slate. Through 16 starts, he sports a horrible 5.84 xERA and a 4.65 xFIP. That includes surrendering a .308 xBA and striking out only 16.1% of batters. Right-handed hitters have been particularly brutal for Allen, slugging .571 against him this season.
Mark Vientos - 3B, NYM vs. Shawn Dubin ($3.8K DK, $3K FD)
Mark Vientos has been on a heater since being recalled from the minor leagues. Over 36 games played, he sports a .933 OPS with 10 home runs and a 160 wRC+. His success includes some outstanding batted-ball metrics, such as a .510 xSLG, 14.9% barrel rate, and a 43.6% hard-hit rate.
Shawn Dubin gets the start for the Houston Astros on Sunday, but given his usual workload, all signs point to a bullpen game. The Astros bullpen ranks 19th in the majors with a 4.09 ERA, so whatever combination of pitchers Vientos faces today is unlikely to be a lockdown group.
Ben Rice - 1B, NYY vs. Kevin Gausman ($2.4K DK, $2.3K FD)
Ben Rice is a worthwhile value play today. His major league career is just 11 games deep, so it would be reasonable to take his .267 batting average with a grain of salt. However, if we look instead at the larger sample size, Rice produced a .925 OPS with 15 home runs across 60 games between Double-A and Triple-A to begin the 2024 campaign. With Juan Soto day-to-day, Rice was recently elevated to the second spot in the batting order and could find himself there again today if Soto remains sidelined.
Kevin Gausman has looked awful in 2024, posting a 5.34 xERA. That includes surrendering a .509 xSLG, 11.5% barrel rate, and a 43.1% hard-hit rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .505 against Gausman this season, putting Rice in a good position to succeed.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Judge - OF, NYY vs. Kevin Gausman ($6.5K DK, $4.9K FD)
There is no hotter hitter than Aaron Judge. He leads all players with 30 home runs, part of a ridiculous .313/.434/.700 slash line. Judge's advanced metrics are even more absurd, including .748 xSLG, 29.3% barrel rate, 62.9% hard-hit rate, 96.9 MPH average exit velocity, and a .305 xBA. We could keep deep-diving on his numbers, but the point has been made -- Judge is the best there is right now.
Jackson Merrill - OF, SD vs. Josh Winckowski ($4.4K DK, $3K FD)
Jackson Merrill is another name that caught fire in June, launching nine home runs so far this month. Overall, the 21-year-old is up to a .288/.322/.456 slash line with 12 home runs and a 120 wRC+. If you've been following the disconnect between Merrill's advanced metrics and his on-field results, then his recent outbreak is unsurprising. Merrill has been squaring up opposing pitchers to the tune of a .497 xSLG and a .295 xBA.
His name is Jackson Merrill, but you can call him Mr. June 🔥 pic.twitter.com/fBpo56r9C7
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 29, 2024
Josh Winckowski gets the nod for the Boston Red Sox today. While his 3.26 ERA looks good on the surface, his 4.34 xERA illustrates why he is likely to regress. Opposing hitters have generated a bloated 43.9% hard-hit rate against Winckowski this season. Left-handed hitters are slugging .456 against him in 2024.
Jose Siri - OF, TB vs. Patrick Corbin ($3.4K DK, $3K FD)
Jose Siri's strikeout rate is a cause for concern, but when he does manage to make contact, his pop is undeniable. He has produced a .467 xSLG and a 15.9% barrel rate, resulting in 11 home runs. Siri has been particularly lethal against left-handed pitching, slugging .527 versus southpaws in 2024.
Patrick Corbin is certainly among the worst pitchers on this slate. Across 16 starts, he sports a horrible 6.47 xERA and a 4.44 xFIP. Corbin's struggles include surrendering a .521 xSLG, 49.3% hard-hit rate, 9.9% barrel rate, and a .320 xBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. New York Yankees vs. Kevin Gausman
- Favorite Plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo, Ben Rice
2. Kansas City Royals vs. Logan Allen
- Favorite Plays: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Hunter Renfroe
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