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Mark Kieffer's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 2/28/24. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.
Another crazy week of college hoops in the book, another round of bracketologists coming out with their predictions as we are ever so close to conference tournaments and selection Sunday on March 17, 2024.
One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353
Below is a list of teams that most experts consider on the bubble, their resumés, and what the upcoming week looks like for those teams. I am no bracketologist, so I am going off of the consensus based on several experts out there.
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Nebraska
Resume: 20-8 record, 4-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 13-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 41st in NET.
Nebraska won last week against Indiana and Minnesota. They find themselves 10-7 in the Big 10 and tied with Wisconsin for fourth. They have gone from being the last four in to not being on the bubble as they went from 48th in NET to 41st.
Weekly Outlook: at Ohio St (Q1), vs. Rutgers (Q3)
Status: Off the bubble and in, trending up
Texas
Resume: 17-10 record, 4-7 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3 and 9-0 vs. Q4 teams. 40th in NET
The Big 12 is a gauntlet but Texas is having a disappointing season. They were preseason picked to finish third in the Big 12 and instead are in 10th with a 6-8 conference record. Last week they beat Kansas State, a Q2 team, and then lost badly at Kansas. ESPN has Texas among the last four byes, while other brackets have them among the last four in. Because of it being the Big 12, a strong end to the season or a conference tournament run could solidify their status in the tournament.
Weekly Outlook: at Texas Tech (Q1), vs. Oklahoma St (Q3), at Baylor (Q1). There are a lot of opportunities over the next week to strengthen their resume.
Status: In the tournament as a 10 seed but trending down
Wake Forest
Resume: 16-9 record, 2-4 vs. Q1, 4-5 vs. Q2, 12-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 25th in NET
This was a huge week for Wake Forest as they went 2-0 including a win over Duke. They moved from 40th in NET to 25th in NET. They went from being out on all brackets to being on 94% of the projected brackets in the industry. It's incredible what one week can do for you. They are now tied for third in the loss column in the ACC and look to be headed their way to the NCAA tournament if they can just take care of business the next two weeks.
Weekly Outlook: at Notre Dame (Q3), at Virginia Tech (Q1), vs. Georgia Tech (Q3)
Status: Went from being out across the board to being anywhere from last four in to last four with a bye. 10/11 seed in most brackets. Trending Up
Nevada
Resume: 21-6 record, 5-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, and 10-0 vs. Q4 teams. 42nd in NET
Nevada's best wins are against Colorado State, San Diego State, and Utah State. Losing at Wyoming is a bad loss. They are middle of the pack in the Mountain West; however, the Mountain West is a strong conference this year. A winning record vs. Q1 teams is good. This past week they had a crappy schedule and won both of those games of against Q4 teams.
Weekly Outlook: at Colorado State (Q1), vs. Fresno State (Q4), at Boise St (Q1). A big seven days coming up for Nevada here.
Status: Most brackets have them as last four team with a bye and a 10 or 11 seed. Holding steady from last week
New Mexico
Resume: 20-7 record, 4-3 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3 and 10-1 vs. Q4 teams. 26th in NET
New Mexico had a mixed week. They got a huge win against Colorado State and then followed that up with a Q4 loss to Air Force which brings them right back down into the bubble. They went from 24th to 26th in NET and have one game in the next seven days against a Boise State team that beat them at home already this year. This is a big one for them.
Weekly Outlook: at Boise State (Q1). They lost to Boise State last time out at home 86-78. A win here would be big for them.
Status: 10 or 11 seed. Last four in. Trending Down.
Seton Hall
Resume: 18-9 record, 5-5 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 2-2 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 61st in NET
Seton Hall has some big wins over UConn and Marquette. Is that enough to carry them into the tournament despite their poor NET rating? It will be interesting to see where they land in a couple of weeks, but they also have some big conference games coming up.
They won against Butler this past week, likely knocking Butler out of tournament consideration for the moment (Spoiler Alert).
Weekly Outlook: at Creighton (Q1), at UConn (Q1). Two really tough teams, but two opportunities to have a Wake Forest type of rise in the brackets.
Status: Last four in on most brackets. Was out of the tournament last week. Trending up.
Virginia
Resume: 20-8 record, 3-4 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 8-1 vs. Q3 and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 48th in NET
Virginia is a program that has found itself on a downward spiral recently. A blowout loss to Virginia Tech and a loss to North Carolina have the Cavaliers fighting for an NCAA tournament berth with just two weeks left in the season. A 6-7 record against Q1 and Q2 teams is not good. This week is a make-or-break for them as they could find themselves dropping even further or improving their overall status if they can upset Duke.
Weekly Outlook: at Boston College (Q2), at Duke (Q1). With a bad week, Virginia has to get back in the win column.
Status: Last four in as an 11 seed. Trending Down as they were not a bubble team last week.
Providence
Resume: 18-9 record, 5-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 0-0 vs. Q3, and 10-0 vs. Q4 teams. 54th in NET
Providence had just one game last week and took care of business with a Q1 win over Xavier by the score of 79-75 on the road. That in addition to wins over Creighton, Marquette, and Wisconsin makes them a compelling team.
Weekly Outlook: at Marquette (Q1), vs. Villanova (Q2), at Georgetown (Q3). Going 2-1 is necessary for them to stay in the mix, and a win over Marquette might stamp their ticket in.
Status: First four out on most brackets. Trending up.
Gonzaga
Resume: 21-6 record, 1-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 18-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 23rd in NET
Gonzaga is in the same situation they have been in the last couple of weeks. The metrics say they have the talent of a Top 25 team but their resume says no. Yes, they are on a six-game winning streak, but outside of Kentucky, these have been Q3 and Q4 teams that they should beat. They close out their regular season vs. San Francisco and at Saint Mary's this week. A WCC tournament win might be what they need to get in the tournament, as I do not think this is a two-bid league.
Weekly Outlook: vs. San Francisco (Q1), at Saint Mary's (Q1). This is a week to improve their Q1 record and get some more key wins.
Status: Most brackets have them as a last four in as an 11 seed. Trending neutral despite their win streak.
Texas A&M
Resume: 15-12 record, 6-6 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 2-4 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 58th in NET
While this was a team that played itself on the bubble before, it now looks like they have played themselves off of it, too. They have lost four straight games including two Q1 and two Q3 games.
Weekly Outlook: vs. South Carolina (Q2), at Georgia (Q2).
Status: First Four Out. Trending Down
Villanova
Resume: 15-12 record, 3-8 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 2-3 vs. Q3, and 4-0 vs. Q4 teams. 38th in NET
Villanova is another one of those teams that has the talent to be in the tournament but their resume says otherwise. You'd like a better record than 3-8 in Quad 1 games. With three Quad 1 games left, there are opportunities to play their way back into the tournament.
Weekly Outlook: at Providence (Q1). Huge opportunity here in what could be a quasi-play-in-game for both teams.
Status: Next four out. Trending down
Utah
Resume: 16-11 record, 3-7 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 4-1 vs. Q3, and 4-0 vs. Q4 teams. 53rd in NET
The 89-65 blowout loss at Colorado was not good for Utah but did not really change their resume overall as they are still one of the first four out. With a weak remaining schedule, Utah is going to have to do well in the PAC-12 tournament to have a real chance to get in.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Stanford (Q3), vs. California (Q3). Only chances to make yourself look worse but not better
Status: First four out and trending neutral
Colorado
Resume: 18-9 record, 1-5 vs. Q1, 7-4 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 32nd in NET
Colorado beat Utah at home, but a tournament-type of team should beat Utah at home. It did help them improve to 32nd in NET.
Weekly Outlook: vs. California (Q3), vs. Stanford (Q3). Similar to Utah, can only do harm but nothing to help them out. Just one Q1 game left on their schedule
Status: Out on all brackets. Trending up but not enough.
Butler
Resume: 15-12 record, 3-11 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 62nd in NET.
Losing at Seton Hall as part of a current four game losing streak is tough. With no Q1 teams left on their schedule, it's going to be hard to improve the resume to get in.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Saint John's (Q2), at DePaul (Q4).
Status: Likely out and trending down
Ole Miss
Resume: 19-8 record, 4-6 vs. Q1, 0-2 vs. Q2, 15-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 75th in NET.
Went 0-2 last week and likely out of the tournament. This Alabama game tomorrow is their last chance to boost their resume until the SEC tournament.
Weekly Outlook: vs Alabama (Q1), at Missouri (Q3).
Status: Out on all brackets. Trending down
Kansas State
Resume: 17-11 record, 3-5 vs. Q1, 4-5 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 7-0 vs. Q4 teams. 73rd in NET
They went 2-0 last week with a big win over BYU. BYU, Kansas, and Baylor aren't bad wins to have on the resume, but I'm more concerned with their losing record against Q1 and Q2 teams. Their schedule this week will give them an opportunity as the Big 12 always does.
Weekly Outlook: at Cincinnati (Q1), at Kansas (Q1)
Status: First four out but with three games left in Q1 on the schedule, who knows? Trending up.
Iowa
Resume: 16-12 record, 2-8 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 6-0 vs. Q4 teams. 60th in NET
Wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin are good but need more.
Weekly Outlook: @ Northwestern (Q1)
Status: First four out. I would have them in. They need a signature win or a Big 10 tournament run most likely.
St. John's
Resume: 16-12 record, 2-9 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 44th in NET
Overall not a great record but they beat Creighton last week. They aren't on the bubble but their net rating and recent win are interesting.
Weekly Outlook: at Butler (Q1), at DePaul (Q4).
Status: Out of the tournament. No signature wins and playing badly. I am surprised ESPN has them in the next four out.
Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.
