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Luther Burden III is a fantasy football sleeper and value in 2025 fantasy football rookie drafts. Read the fantasy football outlook for the new Bears wide receiver.
DRAFT PICK: 2nd Round (#39 Overall Pick)
TEAM: Chicago Bears
ROOKIE DRAFT ANALYSIS: After a breakout sophomore season, Luther Burden III was talked about as someone who could be one of the top receivers drafted in 2025. However, Burden's volume and efficiency regressed to respectable, not eye-popping numbers. Burden had a whopping 3.20 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt in 2023, falling to 1.80 in 2024. The yards per route numbers followed suit, with 3.29 in 2023 versus 2.32 in 2024.
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Burden played in the slot over 80 percent of the time in 2023 (81.7 percent) and 2024 (85.3 percent). Interestingly, he was deployed mostly out wide in his first collegiate season at Missouri in 2022, playing wide on 85 percent of his snaps. Burden was known for those manufactured targets in the short areas and behind the line of scrimmage.
That's evident in Burden being one of 10 receiver prospects in 2025, with a short area and behind-the-line-of-scrimmage target rate of 25 percent or higher in each category. Burden and Savion Williams were the only receiving prospects drafted in the top three rounds, with the rest having Day 3 draft capital or later.
Some @lutherburden3 for your timeline pic.twitter.com/xOntjPu8NY
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) May 11, 2025
Though Burden posted a mediocre 6.10 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/Rec), given the short target usage, he forced the highest rate of missed tackles among the 2025 class. His missed tackles forced per reception (MTF/Rec) suggest he made defenders miss on nearly 50 percent of his receptions (49.2 percent).
Burden's MTF/Rec and YAC/Rec align with the film and athleticism grades, leading to above-average speed scores (88th percentile) and freak scores (80th percentile). Some might be concerned after waiting for Rome Odunze to make a rookie impact. Odunze gave us three spike outings in 2024, with him reaching over 100 receiving yards in two (Week 3 and 9) and scoring a pair of touchdowns in the third (Week 14).
The Bears didn't re-sign Keenan Allen, likely moving Burden into the slot role, with DJ Moore and Odunze playing mostly out wide. Burden theoretically bodes well and aligns with his skill set since he projects as the Bears' slot receiver. There have been rumblings of the Bears possibly re-signing Allen, which would lower Burden's stock in the short term.
In 2024, the Lions under Ben Johnson had the second-highest EPA per dropback (EPA/DB), with the Bears at 27th. Meanwhile, the Lions ranked fifth in explosive pass rate (11.3 percent) versus the Bears at No. 27 (7 percent). Johnson's offensive system should impact the Bears by using more motion and play action. That's evident in the Lions using motion on 65.9 percent of their plays (No. 4) with the Bears at 47.9 percent (No. 19).
Furthermore, the Lions ranked first in play-action rate (35 percent), with the Bears toward the bottom, ranking 28th (17.8 percent) in 2024. Burden is one of the cheapest options in the Bears' offense, so we'll want to prioritize him in the middle rounds of redraft, assuming he's their primary slot receiver. In rookie drafts, he's being underpriced due to the Chicago offense being crowded. Take the value.
- Corbin Young
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