Later-Round Outfielders - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets

April 6, 2022

Analysis of five fantasy baseball outfielders to draft in the late rounds. Potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued OF to target in drafts.

Welcome officially to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, a lot more fantasy drafts will be taking place -- and we're here as always to guide you through it. Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players with upside that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may have some playing time concerns. The early rounds are critical and the middle rounds shape the core of your starting squad, but the late rounds are where you have the opportunity to select hidden gems who can play a huge role for your fantasy team.

Today, we're looking at some late-round outfielders for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a late-round sleeper draft target that you're going to want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all of our in-depth 2022 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.

Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson showed improvement at the plate last season after struggling in 2020. He slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs, 65 RBI, 79 runs, and two stolen bases over 619 plate appearances last season. The 23-year-old showed an advanced approach at the plate by posting a 0.38 BB: K and demonstrated his ability to lift the ball by increasing his launch angle from 9.3 in 2020 to 15.1 in 2021. Carlson should see an increase in power as his 12.2% HR/FB should improve (17.2% HR/FB in Triple-A), and he finished last season strong by popping three homer runs over his previous six games. He is a switch-hitter who plays good defense and should be in the Cardinals' everyday lineup.

The former first-rounder is projected to his fifth for a potent Cardinals lineup, including Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and breakout star Tyler O'Neill. Although there should be more power in store for Carlson, Steamer is projecting the switch hitter to mash 20 long balls along with a .251/.330/.423 slash line and a .325 wOBA over 146 games. According to RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, Carlson's Steamer projection makes him roughly fair value at his current NFBC ADP of 155. The Cardinals outfielder has plenty of upside and is a good bet to surpass his Steamer projections in 2022.

-- Brad Camara - RotoBaller

Avisail Garcia, Miami Marlins

Avisail Garcia was rewarded with a four-year, $53 million contract with the Miami Marlins after posting the best year of his career with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021. Overall, he slashed .262/.330/.490 with 29 homers, eight steals, 86 RBI, and 68 runs scored over 135 games. The 30-year-old posted a career-high 12.2 barrel %, .515 xSLG (87th percentile), .367 xwOBA (85th percentile), and 26.1 HR/FB%. He is projected to hit third in the batting order and provide Miami's lineup an offensive boost. The one downside of the move from Milwaukee to Miami is that Garcia will now play half his games in spacious Loan Depot Park instead of the hitter-friendly confines of American Family Field.

ATC projects Garcia to slash .231/.277/.435 with 23 home runs, 75 RBI, 70 runs scored, and eight stolen bases over 561 plate appearances in 2022. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Value, Garcia's ATC projections make him below fair value at his current ADP of 188. The Marlins outfielder will provide solid counting stats and is a good bet to hit 20+ homers and swipe 6-8 bags in 2022.

--Brad Camara - RotoBaller

Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi didn't amaze anyone with his numbers last season but contributed a little bit in each category, hitting .276 with 17 HRs, 8 SBs, 63 runs, and 73 RBI over 134 games. His 8.9% barrel rate (55th percentile) and 34.5% flyball rate helped him mash the second-most home runs of his career. Don't be surprised if there's an uptick in that department next season. The seven home run difference from Benintendi's expected total (23.7 xHR) can be blamed a bit on Kauffman Stadium. However, just 10.5% of his flyballs left the park, below the 10.6% rate that Kauffman had in 2021. The 27-year-old doesn't have exceptional speed (63rd percentile sprint speed), but with the way the Royals like to run, Benintendi should attain the 12 SBs that Steamer projects him to reach.

He'll also be hitting in the middle of the Royals lineup, which, although not the strongest, will still get him at least 75 RBI and runs across a full season. The former top prospect outperformed his .276 batting average (.261 xBA) last year. But, he's a career .274 hitter, far from his career .246 xBA, so don't assume a drop-off is coming. Once again, Benintendi won't blow anyone away in 2022, but he will provide fantasy managers with enough production to justify taking him at his ADP of 191

-- Spencer Seguin - RotoBaller

Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins outfielder Alex Kirilloff was limited to 59 games in his first season in the majors after undergoing wrist surgery in late July. He is expected to be ready by Spring Training, whenever it officially starts. The former Twins' top prospect slashed .251/.299/.423 with eight home runs, 34 RBI, 23 runs scored, and one stolen base over 231 plate appearances in 2021. Kirilloff also posted an impressive 12.8 percent barrel rate and kept his strikeouts down by owning a low 22.5 K%. He has raw power and will develop into a solid major league hitter. The 24-year-old held a career .318 batting average and a .503 slugging percentage in the minors. He is expected to hit the bottom of the order, limiting his RBI and runs scored opportunities. ATC is on board with this estimate and projects the young slugger to slash .271/.321/.460 with 21 home runs, 66 RBI, 58 runs scored, and five stolen bases over 496 plate appearances in 2022. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, ATC's projections have Kirilloff at roughly fair value with his ADP of 190. Kiriloff can hit for power and could smash his ADP if he can put it all together in 2022.

--Brad Camara - RotoBaller

Myles Straw, Houston Astros

In a game where fantasy managers are obsessing over stolen bases, Myles Straw swiped the quietest 30 bags imaginable in 2021. His overall line of .271/.349/.348 might explain why, as it's tough to be a major leaguer with so little power that your OBP exceeds your slugging percentage over a full season of plate appearances. Straw isn't going to suddenly transform into a power hitter if his 88 mph average airborne exit velocity and 1.3% rate of Brls/BBE are any indication, but he should still deliver the steals that managers crave.

He has a great eye (21.9% chase rate) that allowed him to work a 10.5 BB% despite opposing pitchers not having to fear him at all, helping him get on base to steal a bag. Straw's 92.6 Z-Contact% and 19 K% ensure that relatively few of his PAs end in a fruitless strikeout. He also made the most of balls in play with a .336 BABIP categorized by a low 33.6 FB%, suggesting that he understands that airborne balls aren't for him. His 25.7 LD% might regress and hurt his average somewhat, but he should still be a slight plus in the category while adding runs scored as Cleveland's projected leadoff man. Throw in 30 steals and you have a guy who's well worth his ADP of 237.

-- Rick Lucks - RotoBaller

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