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Late-round QB is an increasingly popular draft strategy for 2018 fantasy football leagues, but is the best? Dom Petrillo examines the value of potentially grabbing an elite quarterback early.
The popular sentiment these days is to wait on quarterbacks and draft them late so you can load up on position players first. While this can work in many cases, let’s look at the other angle and ponder taking a quarterback earlier in the draft. While this may not be everyone’s cup of tea, it can work.
When people hear the word "elite" in draft terms, they may think this means first or second round. NO. This is not what it means. It means taking one in the fourth or fifth round. While this can still be risky, it is only risky if you pick a risky quarterback.
If you take a player like Aaron Rodgers this high, it is not a risk other than the potential for injury, which any player has at any position. If, on the other hand, you use this high a pick on Deshaun Watson or Jimmy Garoppolo, then yes, you are very much playing with fire as neither of them has proven anything for more than five games. Whether you take the greatness which is Rodgers or Tom Brady, or you go with the risky young stuff in Watson or Garoppolo, you will score more points with the elite quarterbacks than with the low-end quarterbacks taken at the end of drafts.
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Why Not Early-Round QB?
The common feeling is since quarterbacks score more points as a whole than any other position, it is not important to take an elite player early in the draft as even the 13th-ranked quarterback will outscore most other players. True, but then why on the other hand do the same people say, if you can get Rob Gronkowski, grab him as he has a huge advantage over other tight ends? You cannot have it both ways. Aaron Rodgers scores far more points than a player like Dak Prescott than Gronkowski does over a player like George Kittle or Jack Doyle.
The other argument is that the quarterback in most leagues is a one-off position. Well, again in most leagues so are tight ends. The fact of the matter is quarterbacks do score the most points of any position. In 2017 the top-ranked quarterback in fantasy leagues was Russell Wilson, who scored 347.8 points in standard leagues. When you look at the 13th-ranked quarterback or the first non-starter Blake Bortles only scored 249.7 points. This is a difference of 98 points or 6.1 points per game on average.
When looking at the positions of running back and wide receiver, the difference between combining the first ranked player and the 24th ranked player and having the 12th and 13th ranked, as most leagues start at least two of these positions is far less great per roster spot. In the case of the running back position, the difference between combining Todd Gurley (319.3) at number one and number 24 Jerick McKinnon (127.1) against the 12th and 13th ranked Deion Lewis (167.0 and Devonta Freeman (164.2) works out to 3.6 points per game for each starting spot.
As for the wide receiver position in 2017, the number one player in standard leagues was DeAndre Hopkins (213.8) whom in this case was not even the first receiver taken in drafts after finishing 37th in a dismal 2016. This means if you had taken the top receivers off the board such as Antonio Brown or Julio Jones, the margin would have been even less than with Hopkins. But, if you had paired Hopkins with the 24th ranked wide receiver, this would have meant a pairing with T.Y. Hilton (118.6). compare these points with the 12th and 13th ranked players at the position who were Adam Thielen (148.8) and Davante Adams (148.5), and the difference per starting position is 1.1 points per spot on a weekly basis. I know what some of you may be saying, I was able to grab Hopkins and Brown because of the depressed value of Hopkins. In this case, the difference between replacing Hilton's 118.6 points with Brown and his 209.3 means the difference per spot is still only 3.1 points.
If you add the running back difference and the wide receiver numbers together you will have a difference of between 4.7 and 6.7 points per week for four positions whereas the difference between the first and 13th ranked quarterback is as we stated 6.1 points for just one position. It is a lot easier to make up six points at four combined positions than it is to try to make up the deficit at one position, don’t you think?
When it comes to taking a quarterback early or waiting until late in the draft, the real question is what you feel comfortable with, not what others are telling you to do. Would you rather build a team with Ezekiel Elliott, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs and Aaron Rodgers and a player like D.J. Moore in the 11th or 12th round? Or would you rather have Jarvis Landry instead of Rodgers and get a quarterback like Alex Smith or Mitch Trubisky in the late rounds?
The choice is really yours for the making, but even if you intend to go with the popular late-round QB strategy, ask yourself what happens if Rodgers falls to the fifth round? Then he becomes a major value. A much better value than anyone else who may be there. Don’t set yourself up for a road to failure by going in with one strategy and refusing to change. If you do so, you are no better than, I don’t know… Mike Mularkey and even, dare I say, Jeff Fisher.
