High-Upside Starting Pitchers - Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets and Value Picks

Nicho picks 4 high-upside starting pitchers, fantasy baseball sleepers and 2025 draft targets from the NL. His favorite SP values include Nick Lodolo, Justin Steele, more.

The most efficient way to target a starting pitcher heading into your fantasy baseball draft is by examining their underlying numbers, track record of success, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentages. Think about it: if hitters aren't putting the ball in play as often, there's less risk of defensive mistakes or weak contact finding the outfield grass.

In turn, pitchers throw fewer "stressful" pitches and can work deeper into the game, providing more opportunities to rack up points and strikeouts while lowering their ERA. Unfortunately, starting pitchers over the last few years have been difficult to identify, mostly due to the risk of injury. The best way to be prepared for that risk is to have a game plan going into your draft. It's important to have depth. Look to target pitchers who are healthy going into the season and carry upside based on their pitcher profile.

In this article, I will walk you through four starting pitchers to target who should have a great season. I will explain what makes them a good target, discuss some underlying metrics and where they rank, and explain why you should add them to your target list. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has been on fantasy managers' radars over the past few seasons. The biggest reason is that he holds a very strong career K/9 (10.67). Lodolo was the seventh overall pick out of TCU in the 2019 draft and was called up to MLB during the 2022 season. During that season, he made 19 starts (101 1/3 innings) and owned an impressive 11.41 K/9 and a 3.66 ERA.

Injuries derailed Lodolo's season in 2023, and because of that, he only made seven starts. Last season, he made 21 starts (115 1/3 innings) with a 9.52 K/9, 4.76 ERA, and a 3.95 FIP. Although those numbers don't pop off the charts, Lodolo's underlying numbers show signs of progression. His 3.72 xERA and 3.78 SIERA were both close to a run better than his ERA.

In most points leagues, you get extra points for strikeouts. Most category leagues have a separate category for K/9 or total strikeouts. Lodolo is a prime example of someone tough to hit on and can strike batters out.

Nick Lodolo is the 13th ranked SP in standard 5x5 leagues so far despite only making 4 starts. Has a 1.88 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 24 IP. Healthy Nick Lodolo 📈

pic.twitter.com/1RhK3GYRFC

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) April 30, 2024

Lodolo has reported to spring training in great shape and is healthy. He is still young (27 years old) and has showcased flashes of success in the past. Fantasy managers looking for a high-upside NL pitcher should target him at his current ADP of 214.5, according to Yahoo.

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies acquired left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins this offseason and expect him to be a key part of their starting rotation in 2025. There's no denying that 2024 was a tough season for Luzardo, as he got crushed. Luzardo had a 5.00 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, and a career-low 7.83 K/9. He also dealt with a few injuries.

I want to rewind to his 2022 and 2023 years with the Marlins, during which he pitched 279 innings, had a 3.48 ERA, and had a 10.62 K/9. That's elite stuff. His slider and changeup generated an impressive 21.8 percent and 22.2 percent swinging strike rates, respectively.

Even during his tough 2024 season, Luzardo still ranked in the 80th percentile in whiff percentage, which aligns with his 2022 and 2023 percentiles of 87th and 85th, respectively. He can make hitters swing and miss and generate strikeouts, but to improve in 2025, he needs to minimize the loud contact.

Six starting pitchers had 2+ offerings with a 40+% whiff rate in 2024, min 200 pitches for each offering.

Blake Snell (3)
Tyler Glasnow
Jesús Luzardo
Reese Olson
Spencer Schwellenbach
Kyle Gibson pic.twitter.com/aeMZ9MAB0Y

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025

In addition, he is now part of one of the best rotations in baseball, led by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. To go along with that, the Phillies lineup should position Luzardo to earn more wins, as the Marlins and the Athletics have had some of the worst offenses in MLB.

With an ADP of 233.7 on Yahoo, he has all the tools to be a steal. Fantasy managers should look to target Luzardo as a high-upside arm late in drafts.

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele is coming off an injury-plagued 2024 season. He took a hard-hit ground ball off the knee in the season opener and missed the first two months. Later in the year, he landed on the 15-day IL with left flexor tendonitis. Due to these injuries, he was limited to 24 starts (134 2/3 innings) with a 3.07 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and a 3.0 WAR.

When healthy, Steele was great. He also owned a solid 9.02 K/9, which aligns with his career 9.22 K/9. What is most impressive is that Steele ranks in the 84th percentile or better in xERA (93rd), xBA (84th), average exit velocity (89th), barrel percentage (94th), and hard-hit percentage (88th). This tells us that he isn't getting hit hard; he's generating swings and misses and pitching at a high level.

Justin Steele is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.

In 2024, he posted a 3.07 ERA over 134.2 innings, backed by elite metrics:

2.74 xERA
.212 xBA
86.9 Avg EV
4.2 Barrel%
33.2 Hard-Hit%pic.twitter.com/4Tuq1dVgee

— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) March 4, 2025

So, why is Steele currently going at pick 124, according to Yahoo? To be blunt, I am not sure. Steele seems like one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, as long as he can stay healthy. Steele also had an impressive 2023 campaign, starting 30 games (16-5) with a 3.06 ERA and 9.14 K/9, so there is no reason to think the 29-year-old shows any signs of regression.

Steele was scratched from a scheduled Cactus League start due to flu-like symptoms, but nothing there suggests he is in jeopardy of missing Opening Day. Fantasy managers are getting a steal at his current ADP and should be looking to target him well before his ADP to secure a top arm in their pitching rotation.

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach is climbing up the ranks in 2025, and rightfully so. In his first season in MLB in 2024, he threw 123 2/3 innings and had a 3.35 ERA to go along with a 9.24 K/9. Not bad for a rookie, wouldn't you say?

What has me targeting Schwellenbach is his 2024 percentile rankings, which you can see in the image below. All of his numbers, for the most part, rank in the top percentiles. Schwellenbach is a second-round pick out of Nebraska who was called up last year due to some injuries in the Braves rotation.

The Braves have moved on from Charlie Morton and Max Fried, which has provided Schwellenbach with a clear path to be in the Braves rotation behind 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale.

I would expect the second-year player to be ready for this task. He is supported by one of the best lineups in baseball and has the pitching arsenal to rack up strikeouts while maintaining a solid ERA.

Fantasy managers should target Schwellenbach at his current ADP of 88, according to Yahoo, as he provides elite upside on a team with a great offense that should support him and help him get a lot of wins.

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