High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 15 Lineups Including Amari Cooper, Matthew Stafford, Zach Ertz, Brock Purdy, Chris Rodriguez Jr., More

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 15 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Amari Cooper, Matthew Stafford, Zach Ertz, Brock Purdy, Chris Rodriguez Jr., and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 15 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 15.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. Bye weeks are finally over, which means the fantasy playoffs are upon us.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

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Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, Pro Football Focus, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 14 started with a clash of the titans between the Lions and Packers, who combined for 65 points thanks to a game-winning field goal by Detroit.

That set the tone for one of the highest-scoring weeks of the year. The early Sunday contests started slow and got going late, but the later games were on fire, especially the Bills and Rams, who combined for 86 points. It may be the best of the year.

It was a fabulous week for passing and rushing. Seven signal-callers threw for 300 yards, and four tossed at least three touchdowns, including Sam Darnold who threw five, and Josh Allen who also ran for three with six total. Only two tailbacks went over 100 yards rushing, but four rushed for multiple scores, highlighted by Josh Jacobs and his hat trick on Thursday. Eight teams scored 30 points, including three over 40, while only one was under 10. It was awesome.

• Minnesota Vikings - 42 points scored (tied for 2nd)
• Detroit Lions - 34 points scored (5th)
• Miami Dolphins - 32 points scored (6th)
• Green Bay Packers - 31 points scored (7th)
• Cincinnati Bengals - 27 points (tied for 10th)

Week 14 was among our best. We nailed two teams in the top five and five in the top 10, all of whom scored 27 points. Our only oversight was not targeting the Buffalo versus Los Angeles game.

Furthermore, only one special teams and defensive touchdowns occurred and it was by the aforementioned Rams, boosting them past the Vikings. We'll strive to carry over our success into Week 15 with five more hits.

Week 15 Offenses to Target

• • Baltimore Ravens
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Washington Commanders
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • San Francisco 49ers

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

As predicted, the home teams outscored the road teams, widening the gap. Squads like the Lions, Dolphins, Vikings, 49ers, and Rams scored 30 points while hosting their opponent. Meanwhile, only the Seahawks, Bills, and Packers hit that mark in their opponent's stadium.

The boom in scoring in Week 14 led to an increase in seven of the 11 categories, including five of the six "average" or "above average" categories within those three metrics. In other words, the great offenses went off while the poor offenses struggled. We'll keep this in mind when identifying our five for Week 15.

Lastly, while the gap in points scored between the three categories in plays per game isn't significant, running more plays results in more points scored. Sample size persists as an issue with just three franchises in the "above average" range. Five more are over 64.39, placing them right below the cutoff. Similarly, we're down to 11 teams in the "below average" category. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds during the final four weeks.

Week 15 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Buffalo Bills

As we covered in the introduction, the Bills lost a heavyweight bout with the Rams in a shockingly high-scoring contest. It's hard to fault Buffalo for losing. Aside from some questionable play calls in the fourth quarter, it played a near-perfect game. Los Angeles deserves a lot of credit for how it played and its ability to convert third and fourth downs.

Despite the loss, the Bills are second in points per game at 30.54, second in offensive touchdowns at 3.62, and 10th in offensive yards at 355 while running 59.38 plays per game. Their offense was not the issue on Sunday. It was special teams and their defense that cost them a win.

The bad news for Buffalo is that was the easiest of its two outings. The Bills travel to Detroit to take on arguably the best team in the NFL. The good news is their offense is going to be forced to put up points, which bodes well for another offensive shootout.

The obvious: One week after becoming the first quarterback to throw, run, and catch a touchdown, Josh Allen was at it again. In Week 14, he threw and ran for three scores, another record. The MVP is securely in his grasp with four weeks remaining. Khalil Shakir continues to operate as the No. 1 option. He had five receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown. He's in the top 24.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - James Cook has the skill set to be a receiver, but Ty Johnson plays a lot of passing downs, which lowers his floor and ceiling. There's a risk of another down week against Detroit.

Player No. 2 - Amari Cooper had one of his better days as a Bill. 37 passing attempts are part of that, but he also looked healthier. He led all players with 14 targets and a 38% target share despite his 63% route participation. He's trending upward as we inch closer to the NFL playoffs.

Offense No. 2 - Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore returns from its bye week after losing to the Eagles in Week 13. The rest will benefit anyone who was banged up or older, such as its superstar tailback. One of the forgotten stories is its kicking woes. It'll be interesting to see what impact or changes, if any, there are heading into Week 15. The Ravens are in a three-way tie with the Chargers and Broncos for the three Wild Card spots.

They'll get back to action with an elite offense that ranks third in points per game at 29.46, third in offensive touchdowns at 3.54, and first in offensive yards at 422.46 on 62 plays per week.

Fortunately for the Ravens, they may not need reliable kicking to win this week because they travel to MetLife Stadium to face the lowly Giants. New York is a legitimate threat to earn the No. 1 draft pick, which would enable it to draft a signal-caller. In any case, it sets up as an easy win for Baltimore.

The obvious: Even when things go awry, Lamar Jackson finds a way to deliver for fantasy football. His rushing floor is among the best in the league and the offense runs through him and Derrick Henry. Henry has gone two straight outings without a trip to the end zone, but that ought to change this week. Mark Andrews has had a rocky year, but the injury to Charlie Kolar and focus on finding the big man near the end zone has led to a resurgence.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Speaking of inconsistency, Zay Flowers has been tough to trust. With Andrews' stock on the rise and players like Tylan Wallace and Rashod Bateman making splash plays, Flowers is more of a flex option. This week could be extra volatile because the game script points toward a run-centric attack.

Player No. 2 - Similar to Flowers, Justice Hill benefits from negative game scripts because he tends to be the receiving back. The hope for him would be some late carries or a long reception. He's not someone to feel confident about, though.

Offense No. 3 - Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles exceeded everyone's expectations against Buffalo. Who knew it was capable of hanging 44 points on the Bills? It was an extremely impressive performance. It also keeps it firmly in the hunt for a division crown. The Rams are shaping up to be a team no one wants to face in January.

Coming off their statement win, they've scored 22.92 points per game (16th), 2.46 offensive touchdowns (10th), and 340.69 offensive yards (18th) on 62 plays per week (17th). It's also important to note that those are season-long numbers, which include the games without their top two wideouts. They're heating up at the right time, just like last year.

Next up is a key road divisional matchup with the ailing 49ers. San Francisco's defense held Chicago under 10 yards in the first half of last week's beatdown, but don't let that scare you away from this group. This contest has the second-highest over/under of the week at 48.5.

The obvious: When the offense scores 44 points, you'd assume it was a great day for everyone. And it was. Puka Nacua had 12 grabs for 162 yards and two total scores, Kyren Williams handled 31 touches for 97 yards and two touchdowns, and Cooper Kupp went five for 92 and one. These three are week winners.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Matthew Stafford was no slouch, either. Because he rarely runs the ball, he's more touchdown-reliant, but he racked up 320 passing yards plus the two scores to Kupp and Nacua. He's a top-12 signal-caller, even with everyone back from their bye week.

Offense No. 4 - San Francisco 49ers

As discussed above, San Francisco hammered Chicago, but the injuries kept coming. This time, it was fourth-string tailback Isaac Guerendo, who's currently the starter because Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, and Jordan Mason are all out. Fortunately, it doesn't sound long-term. Nevertheless, the 49ers continue to battle despite dwindling hopes of making the postseason.

Much like the Rams, injuries have affected their offensive numbers, but 23.69 points per game is 13th best, 2.31 touchdowns is 13th best, and 378.54 yards is fourth best. When in sync, we know what they're capable of.

While the relentless barrage of ailments has hampered the 49ers, it has softened up their defense, creating a perfect combination of a team that can score and be scored on. The offense is also concentrated on a handful of players, which makes it easier for fantasy.

The obvious: George Kittle is earning the crown as the TE1, especially with McCaffrey sidelined. When he's inactive, Kittle's target share rises from 15.5% to 23.5%. He's unstoppable. Jauan Jennings has cemented himself as the unquestionable alpha in the offense after another superb outing. He's fresh off a stat line of 7/90/2.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Isaac Guerendo exited the contest on Sunday early, forcing the 49ers to rely on Patrick Taylor Jr. It looks like he'll be the starter this week against the Rams, making him an intriguing option.

Player No. 2 - Brock Purdy took another big hit, forcing Brandon Allen to come in briefly. Thankfully, Purdy resumed play and finished with 325 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Health is the only thing that can prevent him from another top 12 week.

Player No. 3 - Deebo Samuel Sr. is someone who needs to be included purely because of name value. That being said, he's been outright bad the past four weeks and most of the season relative to expectations. He's failed to hit 40 yards since Week 10. He is not a must-start and should be considered a flex option.

Offense No. 5 - Washington Commanders

Washington ended a three-game skid before its bye with a beatdown of the Titans, 42-19. One of the major storylines was the health of Jayden Daniels, who just got a week off to heal up. The Commanders are unlikely to catch the Eagles for the division, but they're in good shape to earn a spot as a Wild Card.

It's easy to forget how good their offense is, but as a reminder, they sit fourth in points per game at 28.92, seventh in offensive touchdowns at 3.08, fourth in offensive yards at 377.62, and ninth in plays per week at 63.92. They're certainly a team to target.

They'll travel to the Big Easy for a matchup against the Saints. New Orleans is a mess. Derek Carr hurt himself trying to hurdle defenders, removing another offensive weapon. Things could get ugly in this one, so expect the Commanders to hang 30 on it with no problem.

The obvious: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Brian Robinson Jr. each balled out in Week 13. They're a dependable trio that warrants a spot in your lineup regardless of the matchup, but especially this week.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - The last time we selected Washington, we spoke about how Zach Ertz thrives in contests it trails and passes more. However, he did find the end zone in the blowout victory against Tennessee. With the variability at the tight-end position, he's worth consideration as a streamer.

Player No. 2 - The game script lends itself to a second running back scoring points. Unfortunately, who that is has become difficult to decipher since Austin Ekeler got hurt. Jeremy McNichols was the favorite entering Week 13, but it was Chris Rodriguez Jr. who received more carries and had the better day. He's the better bet, making him a flex option.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 15. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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