X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitter Skill-Searching: Hard Contact Frequency Analysis

Jon Anderson analyzes Statcast metrics for contact rate and hard hit rate to see which MLB hitters are most valuable in fantasy baseball.

What we are looking for in a hitter, despite all of the advanced and complex numbers, is pretty simple. We want a hitter to hit the ball very hard, and we want them to hit the ball on a high percentage of their swings.

This is the best formula for success in the Majors Leagues – to make contact with the ball and for that contact to be hard contact as often as possible. The data on this is very accessible, and we'll dive into it in this piece.

We see so often that a hitter will do one or the other without the ability to do both. To showcase this, here are two archetypes.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Extreme Hitter Types

The Patrick Wisdom

The player who swings out of his shoes trying to hit homers. This season, Wisdom is top-10 in hard-hit rate, with 53% of his batted balls leaving the bat above 95 miles per hour. However, he only makes contact on 65% of his swings – a number that is bottom-10 in the league. These two numbers are related.

Wisdom swings the bat so hard that he gives up (intentionally, most likely) lots of bat control to make louder contact when it does happen. Not only that, but the fact that he's swinging the bat harder than most players makes it so his bat is in the "hitting zone" for a shorter period giving it fewer milliseconds to make contact with the moving ball. The harder you swing, the less likely you are to contact the ball just by definition.

The Steven Kwan

The opposite of Wisdom, Kwan is leading the league in contact rate, putting the bat on the ball on 93% of his swings. However, only 25% of his batted balls are hit above 95 miles per hour, the seventh-lowest number in the league. Kwan has great hand-eye coordination, of course, but he's also just giving his bat more time to contact the ball given how slow the bat is moving through the hitting zone.

Here are these two players highlighted on the scatter plot of contact rate vs. hard-hit rate, with a trend line showing the inverse relationship between the two.

The next step in our quest is to highlight more dots in that above plot, searching for hitters who are putting up strong numbers in both of these two categories. Let's get into that, but first, here is an idea of what is good and what is bad in the statistical categories we're talking about. Below you will find the averages, maximums, and minimums for our stats. I'm also adding on "very hard hit" here, which are balls hit above one hundred miles per hour.

Category Mean Minimum Maximum
Contact% 75.7% 59.5% 92.7%
Hard Hit% 39.6% 10.0% 64.0%
Very Hard Hit% 27.7% 1.2% 55.2%

 

The Elite

We are looking for hitters that are in the top 25% in both categories, and there aren't many of them. If I highlight all of their names on the plot, it gets really ugly because the dots are so close to each other, so I drew a little box to highlight who we're talking about here.

Here are those names in table form:

Hitter Contact% Hard Hit%
Brandon Drury 81.1% 48.6%
Mookie Betts 83.4% 47.4%
Michael Brantley 87.8% 47.1%
Andrew Vaughn 82.0% 46.8%
Will Smith 81.7% 45.5%

No huge surprise to see Betts and Smith on here, the other three names are a bit surprising.

Drury: He's been at this all year. Drury hit two homers with a 20% barrel rate and a 60% hard-hit rate in April while managing strikeouts at 20% and making contact 76.5% of the time. I really suspected that he had just dedicated himself to hitting homers this year, and the nice contact rate would not keep up. Well, I was wrong. Over the last month of play, Drury has gone for an 83% contact rate and a 46% hard-hit rate.

Brantley: We knew Brantley would be near the top of the list in contact rate this year, but the hard-hit rate is a pleasant surprise. Despite the 47% hard-hit rate here, he's hit just four homers. His 45% ground-ball rate keeps balls out of the stands, and he rarely goes much above 95 miles per hour (a below-average 25% very-hard-hit rate). We should just expect more of the same from Brantley – tons of hits but not many homers.

Vaughn: He was one of the best hitters in the league in April, but then missed a couple of weeks due to injury, and has been more good than great since then. In those 108 plate appearances, he has a pretty mediocre 41% hard-hit rate and a straight-up bad 3.8% barrel rate – although his high contact rate has kept the batting average way up at .286. I think there's more pop coming for Vaughn, but his stature in this post can be credited to the hot start to April he had.

 

Bordering On Elite

If we loosen up the criteria a little bit to a 78% contact rate and a 43% hard-hit rate, here are the hitters we had on the list:

Hitter Contact% Hard Hit%
Jose Abreu 78.1% 40.1%
Ke'Bryan Hayes 79.7% 37.7%
Manny Machado 78.2% 37.2%
Juan Soto 78.8% 31.7%
Lane Thomas 80.0% 29.7%
Jean Segura 84.1% 30.5%
Freddie Freeman 82.3% 22.8%
Eric Hosmer 80.9% 33.9%
DJ LeMahieu 84.6% 26.5%

The most interesting name to me here is Ke'Bryan Hayes, who has made a ton of contact this year (21.3% K%), and he's been no stranger to loud contact either (7.1% Brl%). Despite all of this, he has just two homers in his 230 plate appearances. The ground-ball rate is higher than average (46%) but not absurdly bad, so it seems like he should have more than just the pair of homers.

The expected home runs count from his Statcast page says four, so that does back up our idea here – although four still isn't helping your fantasy team much over the course of two months. Hayes should be started for his batting average anyways, and there very well could be double-digit homers for him the rest of the season.

The rest of those names aren't all that interesting, but there's some upside there – and plenty of those names are available in your league (although Segura is on the shelf for quite a while so you can ignore him from that list).

 

Above Average

If we just look for hitters putting up numbers that are above-average in both categories, the list gets quite long. Here's a full table for your viewing pleasure:

Here is the full, interactive version of the scatter plot from early on in this post, you can hover over each dot to see who it represents:

 

Very Hard Hit Leaders

One last thing, I went ahead and looked for all hitters with a contact rate above 77% and a very-hard hit rate (100+ mph) in the top 25% of the league, sorted by very hard hit rate.

We have some very interesting names here. You can see how high above the rest of the field Joc Pederson is there, he's had such an impressive year. We also see some guys hitting the ball very hard but without the good homer counts thanks to their launch angle profile (those names here are Christian Yelich, Max Kepler, and Ketel Marte). These hitters all have plenty of upside and deserve a look if they're available in your league and you're looking for power numbers.

Thanks for being here - that's all I've got!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado

Ready for Second Half
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF