Getting to Know First-Round Picks in the 2021 NFL Draft

Michael Florio breaks down prospects who are first-round locks in the 2021 NFL Draft with stats, film, and some fun facts about the players to provide an edge in the upcoming fantasy football season.

The fantasy football landscape is always changing, but perhaps the aspect that has changed most in recent years is with rookies. In previous years, there was definitely analysis about the incoming class of rookies before the NFL draft, but much of the talk for fantasy would occur after the NFL Draft, once all the landing spots were known. Lately, there has been more prospect analysis than ever leading up to and after the actual draft.

It is really a great thing because it only helps improve the football analysis and helps fantasy players both familiarize themselves with the new players even sooner. But, at the same time, it can seem overwhelming to jump in and learn about these players when everyone else seems to already know so much. But do not worry, that is exactly what I want to address with this article.

Here is a beginner's guide to learning about these new incoming rookies. This article will focus both on film, stats, and some fun facts that you should know about the player. First, let’s get started with the first-round locks in this year's NFL Draft!

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Trevor Lawrence - QB, Clemson

Trevor Lawrence has been the chosen one since he won the national title as a freshman, if not sooner. Even if you do not watch any college football, unless you live under a rock, you have heard about Lawrence. His stats speak for himself as he has topped 3,100 yards in every season, including in the shortened 2020. He has averaged over two passing touchdowns per game in each of his three college seasons and has showcased the ability to protect the ball. He had a 76.1 adjusted completion percentage and averaged 9.1 air yards per pass attempt. He also will add points with his legs, as he rushed for over eight touchdowns in two straight seasons. Plus, he ran for 563 yards in 2019.

The tape backs that up, as he is great at selling the handoff near the line of scrimmage and rolling out for the score. There is no throw he cannot make at the NFL level, but the biggest knock I saw when watching his tape is that he can work on his ball placement. He is accurate and will always put the ball in the vicinity of his receivers, but there is room for improvement here. Lawrence grew up a big Peyton Manning fan and wears number 16 because that was Manning’s college number. He gave up baseball and basketball in eighth grade, the same year his family hired him a QB coach. Also, he is a pretty terrible golfer according to Hunter Renfrow.

If you take one stat away from this: Clemson used 11 personnel, which is three-wide receiver sets, on 87% of their plays. Play-action was used 31% of the time and 91% of the plays were run out of the shotgun. New Jaguars Head Coach Urban Meyer ran 76% of plays in 11 and 87% from the shotgun during his tenure at Ohio State.

 If you take one fun fact away from this: His first name is actually William and he is a big fan of Breaking Bad.

Zach Wilson - QB, BYU

 Zach Wilson broke out in 2020 and worked his way to being an early first-round lock. He threw for a career-high 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions in 2020. In his first two seasons combined, he threw for 3,960 yards and 23 touchdowns. He also showcased his ability to run, putting up 254 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in 2020. The tape shows a QB with a lot of arm talent. He has a strong arm and there isn’t a throw he cannot make.

The biggest knock on him is he really had just one big season in college and it came against lesser competition than say a QB in the SEC. But that may be unfair, as Wilson pretty much single-handedly led BYU to an 11-1 record in 2020, including a bowl game victory. He averaged 11.3 air yards per attempt along with a 70.6 completion percentage and 78.4 adjusted completion percentage. Additionally, 61 percent of his yards came through the air and only 39 percent came after the catch. Wilson went all-in on football when he was in high school, giving up basketball to focus solely on football. His favorite player growing up was Aaron Rodgers but he now studies Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow as well. He likes watching The Bachelorette and mastered juggling to help with his hand-eye coordination.

If you take one stat away from this: Zach Wilson averaged 10.7 yards per attempt, the highest of all draft-eligible QBs.

If you take one fun fact away from this: His uncle invented the electronic ticket for airlines… and let’s just say he is very well off for doing so.

Justin Fields - QB, Ohio State

Justin Fields is a baller, despite what the predraft narratives indicate about him. His best season came in 2019 when he threw for 3,273 yards and 41 touchdowns, with just three interceptions. In the shortened 2020 season he put up 2,100 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions. He also can add a lot of value with his legs, which is huge for fantasy QBs. He rushed for 266, 484, 383 yards in his three college seasons and combined for 15 rushing touchdowns in the past two seasons. You may hear some knock his 67.9 completion percentage, but his adjusted completion percentage jumps up to 78.6 percent, behind only Mac Jones.

I’m also not going to question the work ethic of a player that balled out on the biggest stage… after breaking his ribs. There is a whole lot to like on tape. He is a great athlete, can run whenever he needs to and has a good arm that can make throws at the NFL level. He needs to improve his placement when leading a receiver downfield, as he would underthrow some in college. Fields also played baseball as a kid. He is a big fan of Migos and Lil Uzi Vert and apparently is a very loud snorer.

If you take one stat away from this: 70.3 percent of Fields yards in 2020 came through the air, the most of all draft-eligible QBs. That means that he did not get a whole lot of help after the catch.

If you take one fun fact away from this: He had a 3.9 GPA. So yeah, maybe stop questioning his work ethic?

Mac Jones - QB, Alabama

Mac Jones took over for Tua Tagovailoa and worked his way to being a potential Top-5 NFL draft pick. In 2020 he threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns, his first full season as the starter. Jones posted a 73.3 completion percentage, the highest of any QB in this class. One knock you will hear about Jones is that he did not throw down the field much, but rather had a lot of manufactured, short throws. But, the numbers paint a slightly different picture.

He posted a 9.3 aDOT in 2020, which is actually higher than Lawrence (9.2). He averaged 10.5 yards per attempt, and threw beyond the sticks on 46 percent of his throws. However, he did have 48 percent of his yards come through the air and 52 percent came after the catch. Jones gets his competitiveness from his father, who was a pro tennis player. He graduated with a 4.0 GPA and has his master's degree. He is a big fan of Waffle House and can speak Chinese.

If you take one stat away from this: Jones posted a 73.3 completion percentage and an 80.9 percent adjusted completion percentage in 2020, leading this class.

If you take one fun fact away from this: He is a huge Tim Tebow fan and used to write “BLT” on his wristband, which stands for “Be Like Tebow.”

Trey Lance - QB, North Dakota State

Trey Lance only got to play in one game in 2020 until the season was called off due to COVID-19. But in 2019, he did throw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns without throwing an interception. He also added 1,100 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns with his legs. Lance is 6’4, 224 pounds and you quickly see on tape that he is not afraid to throw around that size. He draws comps to Josh Allen, as he has a really strong arm, but struggles at times with ball placement and has some accuracy concerns.

He is raw, as he played just one season at North Dakota State and did not really get to play in 2020. The expectation is any team that drafts him will give him some time to learn before being thrown into the fire. He has a high ceiling but is not as pro-ready as the other four QBs. His dad played college football at SW Minnesota State, as well as in the CFL, and had some NFL training camp invites.

If you take one stat away from this: Lance rushed for over 70 yards in seven games in 2019, including over 100 yards twice. He will continue the trend of rushing QBs such as Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts.

If you take one fun fact away from this: Lance enjoys playing Xbox and watching movies, but never horror movies. He also says he is a champion Monopoly player.

Kyle Pitts - TE, Florida

Do you believe in unicorns? Because Kyle Pitts is basically a living, breathing, unicorn. Pitts is 6’6", 240 pounds and he can run a 4.46 40-yard dash. Darren Waller ran a 4.46 40 as well, at 6’6, 238 pounds at his combine. The only difference? Waller was coming out as a WR and it wasn’t until he transition to TE with the Raiders did he really take off. Pitts has the upside to be the next Waller, or even Travis Kelce, and he may be the most pro-ready of the three coming into the league. In eight games in 2020, he put up a career-high with 770 yards and 12 touchdowns. That is an average of 1.5 touchdowns per game! I would insert the big eyes emoji here if this was Twitter.

Pitts led all draft-eligible TEs in yards (770), TDs (12), first downs (39), explosive plays (24), aDOT (13.8) and yards per route ran (3.04). He was second in YAC (260), yards after contact (118), contested catches (11), and third in missed tackles forced (5). He did not drop a single pass in 2020. He also recorded 24 catches of 15+ yards, which ranked eighth of all players in this class. But he did so on just 71 targets, while all the players with more than him had at least 88 targets (many had over 100). He checks out with all the stats, but the tape backs it up as well. He is an explosive option in the passing game that can play inline, in the slot and even out wide. He will be a matchup nightmare at the NFL level.

The one knock on him has been his blocking. But I did not see that when watching the film. I saw a player who has made improvements in this aspect. Plus, if he is asked to block less, that likely means he’s running more routes which is great for fantasy. The scariest part? Pitts is still relatively new to the position. He played QB and linebacker until he was a junior in college and then had to sit on the bench initially at Florida because he was behind three fifth-year seniors.

If you take one stat away from this: It's worth restating that Pitts led all draft-eligible TEs in yards (770), TDs (12), first downs (39), explosive plays (24), aDOT (13.8) AND yards per route ran (3.04).

If you take one fun fact away from this: He is a fan of the show Impractical Jokers… which only makes me like him even more!

Ja'Marr Chase - WR, LSU

Ja’Marr Chase did not play in 2020, opting out due to COVID, but he is still the top receiver in this draft class. That is even after we saw one of the greatest receiver seasons ever in 2020 from DeVonta Smith. That is how good Chase is. In 2019, he was the top option for Joe Burrow and that historic LSU offense. He caught 84 balls for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. He led the team in yards and TDs, despite another player on his team having more targets. That other receiver was rookie standout Justin Jefferson, you may have heard of him. That 2019 season, Chase averaged 21 yards per catch, forced 22 missed tackles and had 16 catches on 33 contested targets. He put up 3.42 yards per route run in 2019, while reeling in 90 percent of his catchable targets and 49 percent of his contested ones. That season, he ran 108 routes in the slot and 705 out wide, with 379 coming on the left side and 326 on the right.

When you watch his film, his explosiveness jumps off the screen. He has a big catch radius as well. The biggest knock on him is his route running, but people who I trust a lot to judge that have told me that is overblown. His favorite football teams are the Cowboys and Vikings, while he is a Cavs fan and his favorite basketball player is Kyrie Irving. His favorite food is macaroni and his favorite candy is Snickers.

If you take one stat away from this: Chase recorded 46 explosive receiving plays (15+ yards) in 2019, the most among all college receivers. No other player even had 40.

If you take one fun fact away from this: He looks up to Dez Bryant and says he inspires him more than any other football player.

DeVonta Smith - WR, Alabama

DeVonta Smith put up that historic receiver season that I referenced above. Smith was the first receiver in nearly 30 years to win the Heisman after exploding for 117 catches, 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns, with a rushing TD to boot. But that becomes even more impressive when you realize there were only 13 players who had over 1,000 receiving yards in 2020 and none had over 1,220. But that was not the only thing he led this class in by far. He led in yards after the catch with 962, while no one else even had 660. He also led with 301 receiving yards after contact, 23 receiving TD, 84 first downs, and 44 explosive plays, which are catches of 15+ yards. He finished third in yards per route run with 4.20 and in contested catches with 12.

Some will point to him breaking out as a senior as a red flag, but I would argue against that. He put up 1,256 yards and 14 touchdowns as a junior, both of which led an Alabama team that had Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III and Jaylen Waddle (potentially four first-round picks). On film, you see a player like you’ve never seen before. He gets knocked for his weight, which is around 170, but he has a super long wingspan and uses his wiry frame to bend and run routes in a very unique way. He is kind of like the Kevin Durant of the NFL although some question if it will work at the NFL level.

He also has a great ability to win at the line of scrimmage. Smith has always been scrawny, weighing 120 pounds when he entered high school. But he would do pushups and his own individual workouts since he was a kid, on top of playing multiple sports. He would catch 100 balls on the jugs machine after every Alabama practice.

If you take one stat away from this: He went off for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns, while no other player topped 1,220 yards and only one other topped 12 touchdowns in 2020.

If you take one fun fact away from this: He says he can fry anything, but his favorites are catfish, shrimp and chicken.

Jaylen Waddle - WR, Alabama

Jaylen Waddle was limited to just six games this season but still managed to finish with 591 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged a college career-high 21.1 yards per catch and averaged at least 17 yards per catch in all three college seasons. He had 28 catches in 2020 and 15 of them went for over 15 yards. That is over half his catches, so you see that he is a great downfield threat. His 10.1 YAC per catch ranked third among wideouts in this class. Waddle also averaged 4.19 yards per route ran, which ranked fourth in this class, just one spot behind Smith.

His explosiveness jumps off the screen and he often draws comps to Tyreek Hill. I can see it in his playstyle, but I warn people to not expect a Hill-type trajectory. Hill happened to fall in the best-case scenario for his skillset with the Chiefs and eventually with Patrick Mahomes. Waddle does actually model his game after Hill, as well as Cooper Kupp. He is also a big fan of Miley Cyrus.

If you take one stat away from this: He caught 90 percent of his catchable passes and an eye-opening 80 percent of his contested targets.

If you take one fun fact away from this: He had to make an emergency start at QB in high school and ended up throwing six touchdowns. Maybe that can be utilized at the NFL level.

Hopefully this helps you learn more about the big-name players in this year's NFL Draft. If nothing else, it can make you sound smart dropping some stats or fun facts about them with your friends.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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