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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/29/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Thursday, September 29, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 75-78-2, -20.19 units
- Sides: 35-37-1, -13.96 units
- Totals: 39-41-1, -7.83 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS -162
BAL: Mike Baumann | BOS: Nathan Eovaldi
We finished yesterday just 1-1, following a lackluster performance in the first inning by AL Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander. He allowed two runs in the opening frame, which ended up being the only two runs he allowed yesterday. Nevertheless, we'll bounce back today with two more plays on today's ten-game slate.
After lighting up the scoreboard on Tuesday, the Orioles and Red Sox finished yesterday's game scoring just four runs combined. I think they'll go back to the over today. The Orioles will be sending 27-year-old righty Mike Baumann (1-3, 4.32 ERA) to the mound. Baumann comes into this one allowing striking out just 15.9% of hitters while allowing 37.5% hard contact. I'm expecting both of these numbers to regress today against a Red Sox lineup that projects to a 39.55% hard contact rate.
The Red Sox will be sending Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 4.14 ERA) to the mound today. You truly never know what you're going to get when Eovaldi is on the mound. He's pitched well against the O's this season, allowing just two earned runs in two starts against Baltimore this season. However, both of these starts came before June, and Eovaldi projects to a 40.4% hard contact rate allowed against Baltimore's lineup this afternoon.
If you checked out my MLB DFS lineup picks for today, I suggested game stacking this game. My model currently gives the over a 63.06% chance of hitting, with 10.7 runs being scored. I don't love the fact that the total is at 9 but I am willing to take it, and I'll love it if it ends up dropping to 8.5.
Pick: Over 9 (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Angels
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: LAA -260
OAK: Cole Irvin | LAA: Shohei Ohtani
We'll go from east coast to west coast for our second play of the day, this time a first five-run line as the A's head into Orange County to take on the Angels.
The visiting Athletics will send southpaw Cole Irvin (9-12, 4.11 ERA) to the mound. Irvin has been a quality innings eater for the struggling Athletics but has been a bit lucky this season. He's allowing 32.5% hard contact and brings in an xFIP of 4.38, while striking out just 16.8% of hitters. While he's pitched relatively well against the Angels this season with a 2.70 ERA against the Halos, he's lost each of his three starts against them, both in the full game and F5 lines.
On the other hand, the Angels will be sending superstar Shohei Ohtani (14-8, 2.47 ERA). With Aaron Judge hitting historic home run #61 tonight, he's all but locked up the AL MVP. Had he not had such an incredible season though, we would certainly be talking about Shohei winning his second consecutive MVP award. It's hard not to expect regression when someone's ERA is as low as Ohtani's but the 2.73 xFIP shows he's been darn near as good as his ERA shows this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Angels F5 run line at just -150, which I believe is very solid value here. Ohtani's pitched in just two games against the A's this season, and the Angels have covered the F5 -0.5 in one of two of those starts. They have a strong pitching and lineup advantage here though, and I have no problems backing him in this one.
Pick: Angels F5 -0.5 (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you tomorrow!
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