Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/17/22)

August 17, 2022

Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/17/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.

It's Wednesday, August 17th, 2022 and there is an exciting slate of 15 MLB games today. Max Scherzer takes the mound today, as does Carlos Rodon. Those two pitchers could pitch to anyone and I'd be interested in watching. As far as playoff races go, the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox are all within a game of each other. The Guardians are playing the Tigers, the Twins are playing the Royals, while the White Sox are playing the Astros. Mets-Braves is the big series going on as both teams are hoping to win the NL East.

This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins

O/U: 7 | Moneyline: SD -145
SD: Mike Clevinger | MIA: Pablo Lopez

The Marlins and Padres wrap up their series from which Miami took the first two games. Today, to avoid the sweep, the Padres have Mike Clevinger on the mound. For the Marlins, they have Pablo Lopez. Lopez has a 3.59 SIERA, and a 17.4% K-BB%. Clevinger has a 4.02 SIERA and a 15.0% K-BB%. Lopez is the better starter and gives the Marlins an advantage early in the game.

As far as batting goes, one doesn't have to get deep into the numbers to know that San Diego has a better lineup than Miami. That said, this lineup doesn't have a ton of power. On the season, they are 21st in ISO at .139, and even in August, since getting Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury, they are still just 12th in ISO.

Miami has even less power and is a bottom-10 offense in the league across virtually all metrics.

As far as bullpens go, both teams are pretty even. Miami has a bullpen SIERA of 3.57 while San Diego's is 3.46. The edge goes to San Diego, especially when incorporating their ERA.

Before digging into it, I liked Miami's chances to win at +135 odds. I then saw F5 (first five) odds that were even better at +150 and will not incorporate the bullpens. This way if Lopez outpitches Clevinger, there's a good chance we win.

Pick: Miami Moneyline F5 (+150), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYY -140
TB: Corey Kluber| NYY: Domingo German

Tampa Bay and New York conclude their three-game series tonight in which Tampa Bay has won two of the first three games. The Yankees have scored a total of one run in this series and have scored nine runs in their last seven games.

For Tampa Bay, Corey Kluber takes the mound with a 3.74 SIERA and a 17.6% K-BB%. For New York, Domingo German is on the mound with his 4.78 SIERA and 8.7% K-BB%. Clearly, Tampa Bay has an advantage with pitching. If this was a game happening several years ago, this pitching matchup would be appointment TV. Now it's a pretty solid pitcher against one who probably shouldn't even be on their team.

Offensively, the Yankees are powerful. They have been in a slump as noted, but even with that, they are No. 3 in OBP, No. 2 in ISO, and have a 118 wRC+ as a team. Tampa Bay is a below-average offense. They are No. 22 in OBP, No. 22 in ISO, and have a 100 wRC+ as a team. Not great.

So with Kluber on the mound, New York struggling to score runs, and Tampa Bay not being that great of an offense, it only makes sense to expect this game to go under the total yet again and move on, right?

I have a feeling that this game will be high scoring. German is struggling and despite the solid SIERA from Kluber, his ERA at 4.40 is still high. The game is at Yankee stadium, the wind should be blowing out a little bit. It won't shock me if we see runs tonight.

Pick: OVER 8 Runs (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 Units

Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!

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