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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, June 13, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 19-30-2 overall on the season, down 4.25 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. But it's now June and now I am opening things up a bit and trying to make more than just a couple of bets a day. It's all slate-dependent though.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -119
MIN: Chris Archer | SEA: Chris Flexen
This one is being listed first because it is the game one needs to act on the quickest. This morning, Twitter was flooded with "I like Minnesota today" bets, and it is only a matter of time before Minnesota becomes the favorite rather than the underdog in this game.
The starting pitchers are tied for the worst on the slate. Archer has a 5.01 SIERA while Flexen has a 4.93 SIERA these are the two highest SIERAs on today's slate. Archer has a 6.8% K-BB% while Flexen's is 7.9% -- they are the two lowest (worst) rates on the slate. Which one stinks? They both stink pretty equally, to be honest.
Offensively, Minnesota has the higher ISO (11th vs. 16th), OBP (4th vs. 6th), and runs scored (9th vs. 24th). Minnesota has the better offense going into this game, but they aren't that far off other than Minnesota has done a better job of driving in runs than Seattle has. This is being played in Seattle, a pitcher's park, so that is going to suppress scoring anyways.
From the bullpen perspective, Minnesota has a 3.94 bullpen ERA while Seattle's is 4.25. Minnesota's bullpen has allowed the second-most home runs while Seattle's has allowed the 5th most. Neither bullpen is that great.
So who I do want to bet on? I want to bet on whoever is the underdog because this game is a coin toss with a slight edge to Minnesota. I like Minnesota at +100 or better. I like Seattle at anything better than +105. If the line has Minnesota at +100, I probably
Pick: Minnesota Moneyline (+100), DraftKings/Fanduel/BetMGM/Caesar's/Pointsbet/FoxBet 0.5 units, UNDER 8.5 Runs (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SFG -160
KCR: Brady Singer | SFG: Alex Wood
Coming back with another late night game here between the Royals and Giants. The Giants are riding high after sweeping their rival Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend in San Francisco. They now bring in the lowly Royals, who on paper are not as good as the Giants.
Brady Singer is pitching well for the Royals though. He has a 2.86 SIERA, 24.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.8% walk rate. He has figured things out and is one of the best pitchers in baseball this season that nobody is really talking about because...well.... he plays for the Royals.
On the other side, Wood is solid with a 3.44 SIERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and a 6.4% walk rate. The Royals are 22nd in OBP, 24th in ISO, and 26th in total runs scored. Wood should be fine pitching today.
Narratives are always tough but I could see San Francisco having a letdown here. Kansas City does have the better starting pitcher going today. I do not trust Kansas City's bullpen with their 4.80 ERA (third-highest). I am more interested in the first five innings (F5) lines.
With such a good pitching matchup, I expect low scoring in this one. The game opened at 8.5 and if you can find under 8.5 runs, I like that bet too. In some books, you might have to look at the alternate totals.
Pick: Royals Moneyline F5 (+135), PointsBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units; Under 8.5 Runs (-135), BetMGM Sportsbook 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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